????老樣子。華爾街總是無視壞消息，直到一切為時已晚。隨后，恐慌情緒就會蔓延。此次“財政懸崖”可能也不例外。

????一項最新調查顯示，93%的華爾街一線策略師和經濟學家們在進行2013年的預測時仍然沒有考慮明年1月1日將顯現的加稅減支效應。問題是，這是因為華爾街是對阻止財政懸崖胸有成竹，還是僅僅因為無知？

????“顯然，很大一部分華爾街人士認為，我們不會墜落財政懸崖，”“藍籌經濟指數”（Blue Chip Economic Indicators）的編輯蘭德爾?穆爾稱?！斑@種觀點可能比較樂觀，但他們就是這樣預測的?！痹跇I(yè)界頗有名氣的華爾街策略師月度調查就是由Blue Chip Economic Indicators主持進行的。

????確實，我們有理由相信能避免最糟糕的情形。日前，《財富》雜志（FORTUNE）報道，白宮早已提出一項計劃，將把一些減支措施延遲6個月實施。年入25萬美元以下的個人加稅可能會再往后推一年。從近年的情況看，華盛頓可能會在最后一刻達成某種協議。

????但如果真的出現財政懸崖，華爾街可能毫無心理準備。上上周，我寫了一篇文章，談到美國銀行（Bank of America）首席美國策略師伊森?哈里斯認為，財政懸崖的不確定性可能很快就會對經濟構成拖累，這種影響可能最快今年年底就會顯現。他說，大多數經濟學家都錯誤地認為，直到明年之前，財政懸崖都不會影響美國經濟。但即便是這種觀點，可能也還是過于樂觀。

????接受藍籌調查的52位經濟學家中，絕大部分表示，他們在預測時假定布什時期的部分或全部減稅措施將得以延期。調查沒有涉及減支問題，但增稅是可能造成明年財政懸崖效應的主因，占比高達80%。

????總的來說，藍籌的調查顯示，華爾街策略師們預計2013年上半年美國經濟剔除通脹將增長2.3%。上月，美國國會預算辦公室（the Congressional Budget Office）表示，如果出現財政懸崖，美國經濟可能陷入衰退，2013年上半年GDP下降1.3%。

????但這樣的預測可能仍屬樂觀。美國國會預算辦公室預計，財政懸崖將導致明年上半年美國經濟放緩6.6個百分點。換言之，如果沒有財政懸崖，美國經濟明年上半年可能增長5.3%。相比2012年第一季度1.9%的增幅無疑是一大飛躍。但即便是Blue Chip調查中最樂觀的經濟學家也認為明年經濟增速最高不會超過3.4%。

????假如華爾街的普遍預期是準確的，明年上半年我們可能看到經濟衰退，GDP下降4.3%。相比近年來的三次經濟衰退，它可能比前兩次的情形還要糟糕，但比最近一次好一些?？傊?，如果真的出現財政懸崖，華爾街的預期會出現巨大的下行空間。市場也同樣如此。

????譯者：早稻米

????Here we go again. Wall Street has a history of not focusing on bad news until it's too late. Then panic ensues. We might be seeing that pattern again with the so-called fiscal cliff.

????A recent survey found that 93% of top Wall Street strategists and economists still aren't factoring into their estimates for next year the epic mix of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to kick in January 1. The question is whether Wall Street is correctly handicapping the fiscal cliff, or just being ignorant.

????"It's clear that a large percentage of Wall Street doesn't expect us to go over the fiscal cliff," says Randell Moore, who is the editor of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which runs the highly regarded monthly survey of Wall Street strategists. "That may be optimistic, but that's their forecast."

????Indeed, there is good reason to believe we will avoid the worst. Yesterday, FORTUNE reportedthat the White House is already floating a plan that would delay some of the spending cuts for six months. The tax increases for individuals making less than $250,000 could be put off for another year. And recent history suggests that some kind of last minute deal will be struck in Washington.

????But if the fiscal cliff does happen, it appears it will be a surprise to Wall Street. Last week, I wrote a story on how Ethan Harris, the top U.S. strategist at Bank of America, thinks the fiscal cliff, because of uncertainty, could start to be a drag on the economy as soon as later this year. Most economists, he said, are wrongly assuming the fiscal cliff won't impact the economy until next year. But even that doesn't appear to be the case.

????The vast majority of the 52 economists polled by Blue Chip newsletter said that their estimates assume that some or all of the Bush-era tax cuts would be extended. Blue Chip's editor Moore didn't ask about spending cuts. But tax increases will account for 80% of the impact of the fiscal cliff next year.

????In all, Wall Street strategists, according to the Blue Chip survey, believe the U.S. economy, before inflation, will grow 2.3% in the first half of 2013. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office said that if the fiscal cliff happens, it's likely that the economy will fall into recession, with GDP declining 1.3% in the first half of the year.

????Even that, though, might be optimistic. The CBO believes the fiscal cliff will cause the economy to slow by 6.6 percentage points in the first half of next year. That means the CBO is predicting that without the fiscal cliff the economy is likely to grow 5.3% in the first half of the year. That would be a huge jump from the first quarter of 2012, when the economy expanded 1.9%. Even the most exuberant economist in Blue Chip's survey thinks growth will top out at 3.4% next year.

????Assume Wall Street's consensus is accurate, and we could be looking at a recession in the first half of next year in which the GDP drops -4.3%, which would be worse than two of the last three recessions, though not as bad as the most recent. Bottom line: If we do go over the fiscal cliff, Wall Street's expectations have a long way to fall. The market may too.