????贏家：廠商盈虧能力和技術(shù)的兼容性是關(guān)鍵。在這個(gè)情境中，德國廠商憑借堅(jiān)實(shí)的工藝技術(shù)再次領(lǐng)先。不過憑借普銳斯（Prius）的成功，豐田的排名將有所上升，日產(chǎn)汽車（Nissan）也可憑借聆風(fēng)（Leaf）獲得更多份額。沃藍(lán)達(dá)（Volt）也會(huì)對(duì)通用起到類似的促進(jìn)作用。全電動(dòng)汽車特斯拉（Tesla）在這個(gè)情境中成為了行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖——不過它在其它情境中卻表現(xiàn)平平。

????輸家：近年來憑借混合動(dòng)力戰(zhàn)略快速跟進(jìn)的韓國現(xiàn)代汽車（Hyundai）將成為本情境的輸家。歐洲南部以及中國、印度等國的那些實(shí)力較弱的汽車公司由于缺乏資源，將被汽車電池和燃料電池等新能源廠商擠出市場。

情境三：底特律的噩夢

????現(xiàn)在的成功廠商最害怕的就是這個(gè)場景——中國和其它新興市場的汽車廠商快速成長，使他們足以獲取充分技術(shù)，并在北美設(shè)廠生產(chǎn)。隨后他們會(huì)買下一些知名品牌以及他們的技術(shù)，然后把自己的產(chǎn)品運(yùn)到北美進(jìn)行銷售。隨著新興市場的蓬勃發(fā)展，對(duì)豪華車型的需求也會(huì)水漲船高。例如印度的塔塔汽車集團(tuán)（Tata）不僅已經(jīng)擁有了捷豹（Jaguar）和路虎（Land Rover）等品牌，最近還在美國發(fā)布了號(hào)稱“全球最便宜的汽車”Nano。其它汽車廠商不得不被迫與之競爭，從而增加了成本壓力。燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性會(huì)進(jìn)一步改善，排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高，低成本的工藝技術(shù)將成為關(guān)鍵。

????贏家：德國大眾集團(tuán)仍然是這個(gè)場景的勝利者，這主要?dú)w功于它在中國和巴西的強(qiáng)勢地位。塔塔和寶馬緊隨其后。另外還有兩家美國人幾乎都沒聽說過的中國廠商可能會(huì)擠入第一陣營。他們分別是中國第四大汽車制造商東風(fēng)汽車公司（Dongfeng），和中國最大的SUV制造商長城汽車公司（Great Wall）。

????輸家：福特在此情境中的排名非?？亢螅@主要由于它在全球最大的中國市場上只占據(jù)了2%的份額。豐田和日產(chǎn)的得分也很低，一方面是由于產(chǎn)品問題，另一方面也是因?yàn)樵谥袊袌龅恼加新瘦^低。標(biāo)志雪鐵龍和菲亞特雖然也有一些低價(jià)節(jié)油的車型，但卻排名墊底，這主要是由于他們的品牌推廣不力、經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力不足。

情境四：廉價(jià)車全面占領(lǐng)市場

????摩根士丹利把這個(gè)情境稱為整個(gè)汽車業(yè)的最差情境。成熟市場將陷入緊縮和緩慢增長的階段。汽車成為一種普通商品，技術(shù)也不那么重要了。來自新興市場的廉價(jià)汽車像電腦病毒一樣四處散播，汽車價(jià)格越來越低，傳統(tǒng)知名車企紛紛招架不住，要么被擠入小眾市場，要么干脆關(guān)張大吉。更成功的將是那些薄利多銷的企業(yè)。出于對(duì)交通擁堵和環(huán)境的顧慮，買車的人越來越少。人們更看重的是價(jià)格和可靠的出行方式，燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性和車型樣式都不那么重要了。中級(jí)車的買主開始轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注入門級(jí)車型，高端廠商的用戶群岌岌可危。分析師們表示：“這真是汽車行業(yè)的黑暗時(shí)代?！?/p>

????贏家：中國的長城汽車公司成為了本情境的贏家——雖然現(xiàn)在它仍然只是中國的第十大汽車制造商。印度的塔塔汽車的排名也很高。在現(xiàn)在的知名廠商中，只有大眾、現(xiàn)代和起亞仍然穩(wěn)定在第一陣營。通用則由于在中國的成功而再一次超過福特。

????輸家：在這樣一種環(huán)境中，梅賽德斯-奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）很難再繼續(xù)維持繁榮，因而戴姆勒（Daimler）在本情境中的排名十分靠后。在日產(chǎn)公司的幫助下，雷諾（Renault）的排名在所有四個(gè)情境中都超過了標(biāo)志雪鐵龍和菲亞特（克萊斯勒在本情境中甚至不值一提）。而特斯拉在本情境中排名墊底，由于低油價(jià)加上屈指可數(shù)的車型，特斯拉的高科技形象很難玩得轉(zhuǎn)。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Winners: Balance sheet strength and technical adaptability are key. The Germans lead again, thanks to their engineering prowess. But Toyota moves up because of its success with the Prius, Nissan gets a boost from the Leaf, and the Volt propels GM higher. All-EV Tesla becomes an industry leader in this scenario (but barely registers in others).

????Losers: Hyundai, with its fast-follower hybrid strategy, gives ground here. Weaker companies in Southern Europe, China, and India that lack resources are pushed out by new entrants like battery makers and fuel cell specialists.

Scenario three: Detroit's nightmare

????This is the scenario most feared by established automakers. Manufacturers in China and other emerging markets grow rapidly, allowing them to acquire technology and begin production in North America. They then buy established brands -- along with their technology -- and transfer their own production to North America. Newly prosperous, they drive up demand for luxury vehicles. India's Tata, which already owns Jaguar and Land Rover, switches gears and launches the Nano in the U.S. Other automakers are forced to compete, creating cost pressures. Fuel economy improves, emission standards tighten, and frugal engineering is key.

????Winners: VW still dominates because of its strong position in China and Brazil. Tata and BMW follow close behind. Two Chinese automakers you probably haven't heard of before -- Dongfeng, China's fourth largest producer, and Great Wall, its leading producer of SUVs -- break into the top tier.

????Losers: Ford finishes well down the list because it only holds 2% of the Chinese market, the world's largest. Toyota and Nissan also score poorly, due to poor products and low market share in China. Peugeot-Citroen and Fiat -- despite making some of the least-expensive, most fuel-thrifty cars anywhere -- rank at the bottom because they lack branding and financial strength.

Scenario four: Wal-Mart on wheels

????Morgan Stanley calls this its worst-case scenario for the auto industry. Developed markets become locked into a cycle of austerity and slow growth. Cars are viewed as commodities, and technology is less important. Cheap cars from emerging markets spread like a computer virus, driving down prices and squeezing legacy companies into niche status or out of business. More successful are low-cost producers with high volumes. Traffic congestion and environmental concerns limit auto ownership. Price and the need for reliable transportation become more important than fuel economy or style. The middle class shifts its focus to entry-level cars, destroying the customer base for high-end manufacturers. "This truly a dark era for the auto industry," say the authors.

????Winners: Great Wall takes the prize here -- even though it is only China's tenth-largest producer -- with Tata in hot pursuit. Among established manufacturers, only VW, Hyundai, and Kia make the top tier. GM outpoints Ford again because of its success in China.

????Losers: Mercedes-Benz can hardly prosper in such an environment, so Daimler finishes well down the list. With the help of Nissan, Renault outpoints Peugeot-Citroen and Fiat (Chrysler doesn't get a mention) in this and all other scenarios. And Tesla ranks dead last since the combination of low fuel prices and bare bones products hardly plays well with its rocket-science image.