????過去兩年，路易威登（Louis Vutton）皮包、迪奧（Dior）香水等奢侈品的銷售一直是全球零售業(yè)中為數(shù)不多的亮點。然而越來越多的跡象顯示，即便最具彈性的消費者，可能也無法承受愈演愈烈的歐債危機和中國經(jīng)濟放緩所造成的影響。

????上周三，英國奢侈時裝商店巴寶莉集團（Burberry Group Plc）在奢侈品市場首先出現(xiàn)下跌。之前，該公司公布的第一財季銷售額增長了11%，達到6.34億美元，低于13%的增長預期。雖然這算不上災難性的業(yè)績，而且巴寶莉高管也表示，公司認為中國市場仍存在“巨大的商機”，但這都無法緩解奢侈品市場的緊張情緒。

????一些分析師和投資者擔心，這標志著高端零售市場拐點的到來。在巴寶莉集團公布業(yè)績的同一天，歷峰集團（Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA）旗下的卡地亞（Cartier）表示，中國市場對高端手表的需求正在減弱?？ǖ貋喪歉叨耸直砼c珠寶品牌，中國市場一直是其豪華表暢銷的主要動力。

????上周三，卡地亞CEO伯納德?福納斯稱：“去年，我們?nèi)〉昧朔欠驳某煽?，但今年中國大陸市場的需求有所放緩?！碑斎眨{德?福納斯發(fā)布了使用能源更少的最新款概念手表ID Two。不過，福納斯與巴寶莉集團對中國消費者的長期前景并不擔心。

????他說：“通過與中國消費者交流，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，人們都在期待新領(lǐng)導人上臺。屆時，中國經(jīng)濟將被注入更多資金，利率也會降低?！?/p>

????但這一點仍需時間來證明。經(jīng)濟大蕭條后的幾年，隨著股市上漲，美國市場對奢侈品的需求激增。對于有錢人來說，豪華與奢侈不是空中樓閣，牛市行情提高了富人的消費信心。但股市上漲不足以維持消費者對奢侈品的胃口，于是，過去幾個月，奢侈品銷量普遍呈現(xiàn)放緩趨勢。

????萬事達卡顧問公司（MasterCard Advisors ）旗下的數(shù)據(jù)研究機構(gòu)、主要跟蹤信用卡、現(xiàn)金與支票交易的SpendingPulse5月份報告稱，今年4月，除珠寶以外，其他奢侈品銷售額同比增長了1.8%，低于第一季度6.7%的同比增速和第四季度13%的同比增速。雖然奢侈品消費近期出現(xiàn)反彈，但SpendingPulse副總裁邁克爾?麥克納馬拉認為，今年奢侈品市場很難重現(xiàn)2011年的輝煌。

????其中，高端珠寶行業(yè)尤為脆弱。蒂芬妮（Tiffany & Co.）公布的第一財季利潤低于預計，并在5月份調(diào)低了全財年銷售額與利潤目標。公司將此歸因于幾個因素，其中就包括對華爾街裁員以及亞洲需求減弱的擔憂。亞洲一直是全球奢侈品最為重要的市場。

????金融服務公司Stifel Financial執(zhí)行董事戴維?施伊克表示，隨著亞洲與歐洲經(jīng)濟增速放緩，需求減弱的情況將蔓延到全球奢侈品市場。他：“它將影響高收入消費者的信心。”

????中國經(jīng)濟放緩已經(jīng)給香港零售業(yè)帶來了巨大壓力。曾幾何時，大陸消費者在香港排長隊搶購奢侈品。然而，5月份，香港奢侈品銷售額同比增長8.8%至46億美元，為2009年9月以來增速最慢的一個月。

????鉆石恒久遠，但鉆石需求的周期卻難以預料。

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????For the past two years, sales of Louis Vutton bags, Dior perfume and the like have been one of the few bright spots in retailing. But momentum in the world of all that's luxurious has begun to wane some, as evidence builds that even the most resilient consumers might not be able to avoid implications of Europe's ongoing debt crisis combined with a slower growing Chinese economy.

????On Wednesday, British luxury fashion house Burberry Group Plc led luxury-goods stocks lower after reporting sales that missed analysts' estimates. Sales for the first quarter rose 11% to $634 million, short of expectations for a 13% gain. Although the results weren't considered anywhere near disastrous, and a Burberry executive said the company continued to see "an enormous amount of opportunity" in China, it didn't exactly ease jittery markets.

????Some analysts and investors fear this is just the beginning of slowing high-end sales. Burberry's results came the same day Cartier, the luxury watch and jewelry brand owned by Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA, said it is seeing less appetite for its high-end watches in China, a key driver behind the recent boom in luxury watches.

????"After a phenomenal year last year, there's been a bit of a slowdown in mainland China," said Cartier CEO Bernard Fornas, at the company's factory Wednesday as he unveiled its latest innovation, a concept watch, called the ID Two, that uses less energy. Similar to Burberry, Fornas isn't worried about Chinese consumers in the long-run.

????"When you talk to the people over there, they are all waiting for a new president to come in," he added. "That will fuel the economy with fresh money and lower interest rates."

????But that remains to be seen. In the years following the Great Recession, demand for all things luxury in the U.S. surged in tandem with gains in the stock market. For those who could afford it, posh and extravagance wasn't altogether impractical, as rallies in the equities market made affluent consumers more confident about spending. But that hasn't been enough to sustain appetites for life's finer things, as luxury sales have generally slowed down for the past several months.

????In May, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse reported that luxury sales, excluding jewelry, climbed 1.8% in April from a year earlier, after gaining 6.7% in the first quarter and 13% in the fourth quarter. Although spending on luxury has bumped up some recently, Michael McNamara, vice president of SpendingPulse, which tracks credit card, cash and check transactions, said robust sales seen in 2011 will be difficult to repeat this year.

????High-end jewlers have been particularly vulnerable. In May, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) cut its fiscal year sales and profit forecast after reporting lower-than-expected first quarter earnings. This was driven by several factors, including concerns about Wall Street layoffs and cooling demand from Asia, a big contributor to the global luxury market.

????David Schick, managing director at Stifel Financial, said he expects that softer sentiments for luxury will carry over globally as economic growth across Asia and Europe slow. "That's going to damage higher income consumer sentiment," he says.

????China's slowing economy has already put pressure on retail sales in Hong Kong, where many Mainland Chinese stand in lines stretched down several city blocks to shop for luxury brands.Sales rose 8.8% in May from a year earlier to $4.6 billion, the smallest gain since September 2009.

????A diamond may be forever, but demand for it has a much less certain lifetime.