印度的阿喀琉斯之踵
????在印度,停電不是什么大事。筆者抵達(dá)新聞雜志《今日印度》(India Today)的第一天就遇到了停電。突然之間,燈全滅了,電腦也黑屏了,可大家似乎都不以為意。有什么必要大驚小怪呢?畢竟,在德里,停電是常有的事,而且我的同事很確定地告訴我,印度每個(gè)地方都會(huì)停電。過(guò)了一會(huì)兒,報(bào)社的茶博士離開熱氣騰騰的奶茶鍋,去啟動(dòng)發(fā)電機(jī)。發(fā)電機(jī)是常備物品,因?yàn)橥k娊?jīng)常發(fā)生,人們已經(jīng)司空見慣了。我離開印度的時(shí)候,對(duì)這種“正常的”不正常生活也已經(jīng)習(xí)以為常。 ????所以,當(dāng)印度發(fā)生世界歷史上最大規(guī)模的一次停電時(shí),大多數(shù)印度人的反應(yīng)竟然是憤怒中帶著一絲尷尬,這讓我很是吃驚。此次停電導(dǎo)致世界約十分之一的人口處于斷電狀態(tài)。對(duì)一個(gè)擁有12億人口、35種方言的民主國(guó)家一概而論是種不負(fù)責(zé)的行為,但請(qǐng)?jiān)试S我這么說(shuō):印度人非常鎮(zhèn)定。因?yàn)?,他們別無(wú)選擇。停電、停水,即便最基本的任務(wù),在紛繁復(fù)雜的官僚主義面前,也會(huì)變成永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法解決的難題?!队《葧r(shí)報(bào)》(The Times of India )對(duì)電力部長(zhǎng)維拉帕?莫伊利進(jìn)行的采訪報(bào)道完美地反映了這種情形。周二,莫伊利臨危受命,剛剛被任命為電力部長(zhǎng)。當(dāng)時(shí)他正在電視上接受采訪,希望恢復(fù)公眾對(duì)政府的信心,結(jié)果采訪被迫中斷,因?yàn)椤k娏恕?/p> ????印度的能源問(wèn)題只會(huì)愈演愈烈。目前,周一與周二停電的具體原因尚不明確,但印度的電力需求早已超出發(fā)電容量,而且電力價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于生產(chǎn)成本。印度發(fā)電系統(tǒng)嚴(yán)重依賴于燃煤發(fā)電和水力發(fā)電,而諷刺的是,停電的時(shí)候,煤礦也不得不停止開采。周二停電時(shí)就有礦工被困井下。預(yù)計(jì)印度電網(wǎng)20%的電量來(lái)自水力發(fā)電,而水力發(fā)電很大程度上依賴于季節(jié)性的雨季。由于氣候條件變幻莫測(cè),這種發(fā)電形式并不穩(wěn)定。今年,印度降雨量低于往年,而且明年可能依然如此。世界銀行(World Bank)的報(bào)告稱,2006年,印度因持續(xù)停電造成的產(chǎn)品銷售損失至少達(dá)到6.6%,這是目前可以拿到的最新數(shù)據(jù)。2012年,印度產(chǎn)品銷售損失可能更為慘重。 ????那么,除了對(duì)效率低下的政府表示抱怨和無(wú)奈外,印度人還能做什么?制定備份計(jì)劃——同時(shí)也應(yīng)該是比柴油發(fā)電機(jī)更好的方案。綠色能源是一個(gè)很好的選擇,目前,許多印度初創(chuàng)企業(yè)已經(jīng)開始安裝微型電網(wǎng),向鄉(xiāng)村提供太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電和風(fēng)能發(fā)電。其中,一家名為Selco的公司可以以200美元的價(jià)格制作、安裝太陽(yáng)能電池板,而另外一家公司Simpra Networks則向消費(fèi)者出售利用太陽(yáng)能電池板產(chǎn)生的電力。消費(fèi)者只需電話下單即可。當(dāng)然,要用這些方式代替無(wú)數(shù)體積龐大、噪聲震耳的發(fā)電機(jī),并非切實(shí)可行的辦法;但至少通過(guò)這些方法,無(wú)法自備發(fā)電機(jī)的3億印度人已經(jīng)能夠用上電了。對(duì)這3億人來(lái)說(shuō),周二大停電或許沒(méi)有任何影響,然而面對(duì)如此大規(guī)模的事故,其他所有人都應(yīng)該警醒、憤怒,并著手找出解決問(wèn)題的辦法。 ????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓 |
????In India, a power outage is not a big deal. On my first day at the newsmagazineIndia Today, when the lights cut out and my computer zapped to black, no one seemed to skip a beat. And why would they? This happens all the time in Delhi, and -- my coworkers assured me -- everywhere else in India. Moments later, our Chai wallahs had left their post by the steaming cauldron of milky tea to start the generators, which were kept on hand because this happened all the time and was not a big deal. By the time I left the country I was similarly inured to the regular irregularities of life there. ????So it's amazing that so much of the Indian response to the largest single power outage in world history, which left nearly a tenth of the world's population powerless, is anger, tinged with embarrassment. It's a terribly irresponsible thing to make generalizations about a democracy of 1.2 billion with 35 regional languages, but allow me one: Indians are supremely unflappable. They have to be. The power cuts out, the water does not run, and the most basic tasks can quickly turn Sisyphean in the face of a crazy-complex bureaucracy. The Times of India captured the situation perfectly in a report on power minister Veerappa Moily. Moily was just appointed on Tuesday, during the crises, and in the middle of a television appearance to restore public confidence in the government his interview was cut off...by a blackout. ????India's energy problems are probably only going to get worse before they get better. Though the exact cause of Monday and Tuesday's outages are unclear, the national demand has outpaced capacity, and energy is sold for less than the cost to produce it. The system is still heavily reliant on coal -- which, ironically, it cannot mine when the power goes out; miners were trapped on Tuesday -- and hydroelectric. An estimated 20% of India's grid comes from dams, which rely on the seasonal monsoon, a dicey proposition in a changing climate. The rains have not come on as strong this year, and may not again next year. India's constant outages caused a loss in sales of at least 6.6% in 2006, the most recent year statistics are available, the World Bank reported. It is likely a greater loss of sales in 2012. ????So what to do besides complain and shrug this off as yet another failing of an ineffective government? Have a backup plan -- and one better than a diesel generator. Green energy is a great possibility, and many Indian startups are already beginning to instal micro-grids to distribute solar and wind power to villages. A company called Selco makes and installs solar panels for about $200, while another, called Simpra Networks, will sell the excess energy generated by these panels to customers who place orders on their phones. These aren't simply a viable replacement to the bulky, noisy engines that powered up my office in Delhi, but a way to begin to bring electricity to the 300 million Indians who don't have access to it in the first place. To them, Blackout Tuesday didn't even register, but it might be just the sort of disaster required for everyone else to wake up, get angry, and start fixing things. |