美聯(lián)儲主席加入“幸福指數(shù)”運動
????每次我們試圖評估美國經(jīng)濟的健康狀況時,通常都會看國民生產(chǎn)總值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)等宏觀性數(shù)據(jù)。但最近幾年,越來越多的經(jīng)濟學家們表示,GDP或許并不能完全反映個人狀況,也不能反映是什么改善了人們的生活。他們認為,或許需要制定專門反映幸福程度的新指標。 ????所有這些或許聽起來有些矯情,但美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)主席本?伯南克近日也加入了這場幸福指數(shù)運動。而且,理由充分。雖然GDP等宏觀指數(shù)顯示美國經(jīng)濟正在(緩慢地)復蘇,但伯南克表示,很多美國人和公司的日子仍然不好過。 ????“我們應當尋找能更好、更直接地衡量經(jīng)濟幸福度的指標,經(jīng)濟幸福是我們政策決定的終極目標,”周一伯南克在國際收入與財富研究協(xié)會(International Association for Research in income and Wealth)于馬薩諸塞州劍橋舉行的一次會議上表示。 ????伯南克列舉了位于喜馬拉雅山麓的不丹王國,其國民幸福指數(shù)(Gross National Happiness index)之高彰顯了很多富國早已明白的一個道理:“有錢難買幸福”。同樣重要(或許更重要的)是強有力的社會網(wǎng)絡、醫(yī)療、教育等其他有助于提升生活品質的因素。 ????伯南克還特別提到了經(jīng)濟合作組織(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)的美好生活指數(shù)(better life index)。去年推出的這一指數(shù)在衡量全球34個最富裕國家的現(xiàn)狀時依據(jù)的是個人反饋,而非經(jīng)濟學家或智囊團體的意見,調(diào)查涉及從住房、收入、社區(qū)、生活滿意度到工作-生活平衡等多個領域。 ????根據(jù)該指數(shù),當今的美國人普遍比大多數(shù)工業(yè)化國家的人幸福。經(jīng)合組織最近一次發(fā)布該指數(shù)是在5月份,美國在全球最幸福的工業(yè)化國家中排名僅次于澳大利亞和挪威,位列第三。從很多方面看,這樣的排名不無道理。由于鐵礦石和煤炭出口需求強勁,澳大利亞基本上避開了席卷歐洲的金融危機以及美國經(jīng)濟增長疲弱的沖擊。GDP在某些方面依然重要。2011年澳大利亞經(jīng)濟增長2%,美國稍稍落后,年增長1.7%。 ????雖然挪威去年也只增長了1.7%。但事實證明,挪威人比美國人略微幸福一些。不過,GDP以外,美國仍有很多值得高興的地方。經(jīng)合組織的美好生活指數(shù)顯示,相比經(jīng)合組織的平均水平,美國人獲得了更多的教育和清潔水供應。美國人在住房上花費較少,而且還有很強的社區(qū)感——平均有92%的美國人相信在有需要時可以找到人求助,略高于經(jīng)合組織平均水平的91%。美國人更愿意提供幫助:超過65%的受訪者表示,上個月他們曾幫助過一個陌生人,顯著高于經(jīng)合組織47%的平均水平。而且,美國人依然富裕:美國家庭擁有的平均財富為102,075美元,大大高于經(jīng)合組織36, 238美元的平均值,在經(jīng)合組織中居首。 ????那么,是不是真的像經(jīng)合組織這份報告所顯示的那樣,美國人的幸福感其實超過了美國GDP增速所呈現(xiàn)的水平呢?或者說,就像伯南克指出的那樣,就算美國GDP增速加快,美國人的日子依然不好過?真相是,也許美國人一般而言比大多數(shù)國家的人更幸福,但這可能只是其中一部分美國人。美國的貧富差距很大。根據(jù)該指數(shù),收入最高的20%是年收入81,878萬元,最低的20%卻只有10,591美元。 ????收入越低,幸福度就越低,這一點也許并不奇怪。根據(jù)這個指數(shù),美國人對生活總體滿意度的打分(0-10分制,10分為最滿意)是7.1,高于經(jīng)合組織6.7的均值。但鑒于“社會地位”對主觀幸福感影響很大,收入最低的20%感到并不那么滿意。收入最低的20%給出的生活滿意度分數(shù)為6.3,而收入最高的20%則為7.6。 ????確實,GDP等宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)或許顯示美國經(jīng)濟正在復蘇。但正如伯南克所指,它并沒有反映出人們的真實感受。將來美聯(lián)儲和其他決策機構在考慮下一步怎么辦時,需要探索其他方式來把脈經(jīng)濟。 ????譯者:早稻米 |
????Whenever we try to assess the health of the economy, we usually go by data sets that look at large groups, such as Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. But in recent years, a growing number of economists have suggested that GDP might not capture entirely how individuals are doing or what makes their lives better. They say they may need to develop new measures that focus on "well-being" or happiness. ????All this might sound a little touchy-feely, but Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently joined this happiness movement. And for good reasons. While GDP and other broad measures suggest the U.S. economy is recovering – albeit, slowly – Bernanke says many people and businesses still face tough times. ????"We should seek better and more-direct measurements of economic well-being, the ultimate objective of our policy decisions," he said on Monday at a conference of the International Association for Research in income and Wealth in Cambridge, Mass. ????Bernanke pointed to the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan's Gross National Happiness index, which underscores the truism in rich countries that money doesn't buy happiness. Equally, if not more important, are strong social networks, health, education and other such things that help raise the quality of life. ????In particular, Bernanke also pointed to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's "better life index." Launched last year, it turns to private citizens rather than economists or think tanks to measure how the world's 34 richest countries are faring based on benchmarks that fall into several areas – from housing to income to community to life satisfaction and work-life balance. ????According to the index, Americans today are generally happier than most of the industrialized countries. In the OECD's latest index released in May, the U.S. ranked third behind Australia and Norway as the happiest industrialized nation in the world. In many ways, this makes sense, as strong demand or iron and ore and coal exports helped Australia largely sidestep the malaise gripping much of Europe and anemic growth in the U.S. In some ways, GDP is still relevant. Australia's economy grew 2% in 2011, while the U.S. trailed slightly behind growing at a 1.7% annual rate. ????But even while Norway also grew at 1.7% last year, the country proved slightly happier than the U.S. Nevertheless, beyond GDP, the U.S. has a lot to be happy about. ????Americans have greater access to education and clean water than the average citizen living in an OECD country, according to the OECD's better life index. They spend less on housing and there's also a stronger sense of community – on average, 92% of people believe that they know someone they could turn to in a time of need, slightly higher than the OECD average of 91%. Americans are more willing to help: More than 65% surveyed said they'd helped a stranger in the last month, markedly higher than the OECD average of 47%. And we're still rich: Average U.S. household wealth is estimated at $102,075 – much higher than the OECD average of $36, 238 and the highest figure overall. ????So are Americans happier than our GDP growth would suggest, as the OECD report seems to say? Or are we still struggling even as our GDP growth becomes stronger, as Bernanke pointed out? The truth is that while Americans are generally happier than most, that's probably only the case for a segment of our population. The gap between the haves and have-nots is wide. Whereas income of the top 20% is $81,878 a year, the bottom 20% lives on $10,591 a year, according to the index. ????Perhaps not surprisingly, the lower your income, the lower your level of happiness. When Americans were asked to rate their general satisfaction with life on a scale from 0 to 10 (with 10 being the most satisfied), they gave it a 7.1 – higher than the OECD average of 6.7, according to the index. But given that "social status strongly influences subjective well-being," according to the index, those at the bottom 20% are less fulfilled. Whereas the bottom 20% has a life satisfaction level of 6.3, the score rises to 7.6 for the top 20%. ????Indeed, GDP and other macroeconomic data might suggest America's economy is recovering. But as Bernanke notes, that doesn't capture what's really going on. And moving forward, the Fed and other policy-makers need to consider other ways to diagnose the economy as they think what to do next. |