Zynga反彈還有戲
????Zynga創(chuàng)始人兼董事長馬克?平克斯持有公司50.15%的有表決權(quán)股份,并且自IPO以來,他已經(jīng)幾次表示無意出售公司。但分析人士和股東們則表示,如果公司無法執(zhí)行增長計劃、并在明年至少連續(xù)兩個財季交出像樣的業(yè)績,那它就應(yīng)該設(shè)法出售。 ????貝雅投資公司(Robert W. Baird & Co.)的資深研究分析師科林?塞巴斯蒂安稱,Zynga需要考慮戰(zhàn)略性備選方案。他近期調(diào)高了對該公司的評級,認(rèn)為它能跑贏大盤,并對公司仍能恢復(fù)元?dú)獗е?jǐn)慎樂觀。巴迪亞說:“如果他們不想出售的原因是因?yàn)樽哉J(rèn)為還有很多事要做,那我們確實(shí)沒看出來這一點(diǎn)。如果他們打算說不,就必須拿出充分的理由來?!?/p> ????自上市以來,Zynga就風(fēng)波不斷,屢屢陷于各種失策之舉和問題中:財務(wù)季報未達(dá)預(yù)期,兩款主打游戲人氣驟減,8月份以來至少6名高管突然離職,超支花費(fèi)2億美元收購游戲公司OMGPOP【該公司開發(fā)的“我畫你猜”("Draw Something")游戲在收購后開始人氣下降】引發(fā)市場擔(dān)憂,無不對投資者敲響了警鐘。此外,還有一系列訴訟,至少有6家律所正在對包括平克斯在內(nèi)的公司高管在今年4月初拋售價值約為6億美元的股票一事進(jìn)行調(diào)查——此舉發(fā)生在禁售期到期和股價腰斬之前。這些訴訟還指控公司“沒有如實(shí)陳述并/或不予披露有關(guān)其業(yè)務(wù)和財務(wù)狀況的實(shí)際不利事實(shí)。” ????總的來說,這些問題讓Zynga在試圖重拾增長勢頭時,股票身負(fù)重壓,不得不逆風(fēng)而行。巴迪亞稱:“我們發(fā)現(xiàn),Zynga的股價近期始終就處于停滯狀態(tài)。” ????Zynga需要一種催化劑來刺激增長,拉升股價。一款更讓中間核心(mid-core)玩家、而非休閑玩家喜愛的主打游戲正是這種催化劑。近期,Zynga又推出了新的休閑游戲,比如《主廚樂園》(ChefVille)和《開心農(nóng)場2》。但是中間核心游戲才能吸引更多忠實(shí)玩家,因?yàn)樗麄兺ǔǜ鄷r間打游戲——因此也才能比休閑游戲帶來更多的收入。塞巴斯蒂安稱:“Zynga已經(jīng)發(fā)展到了一個飽和點(diǎn),他們需要使自己的游戲更加多樣化?!弊罱?,Zynga收購了專門開發(fā)中間核心游戲的游戲工作室“A Bit Lucky”,已經(jīng)流露出進(jìn)軍這一細(xì)分市場的動向。 ????不過,Zynga在中間核心游戲市場上還要面臨激烈的競爭。這種競爭來自一批經(jīng)驗(yàn)老到的公司,如藝電公司(Electronic Arts),以及一些較小的公司如Kixeye, Kabam和Rumble Games。實(shí)際上,得知Zynga的一些高管正打算離職后,Kixeye立刻在視頻網(wǎng)站Youtube上貼出了廣告,要挖走Zynga的人才。廣告里寫道:“如果你是個超級游戲開發(fā)高手,不想把才華浪費(fèi)在點(diǎn)擊奶牛、讓虛擬寵物反芻上,我們這里可能有適合你的職位……” ????Zynga還能在其他領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)增長,即開發(fā)移動游戲,發(fā)展Zynga.com平臺,同時在全球推廣其在線紙牌游戲。 ????Zynga打算進(jìn)軍移動市場以及近期推出Zynga.com平臺,目的都是減少對Facebook的依賴。最近一個財季,Zynga的營收中有87%來自Facebook。巴迪亞表示,在與Facebook的合約于2015年5月到期前,Zynga設(shè)法提高移動領(lǐng)域和Zynga.com平臺的產(chǎn)能至關(guān)重要。否則到了那時,F(xiàn)acebook就可能修改協(xié)議條款,壓低Zynga收入分成比例。目前,Zynga在Facebook平臺上銷售虛擬商品的收入的30%要分給Facebook。 |
????Zynga founder and chief executive Mark Pincus holds 50.15% of the voting shares in the company and has indicated several times since the company's IPO that he has no interest in selling out. But analysts and shareholders say if the company is unable to execute on its growth plan and deliver solid quarterly results for at least two consecutive quarters over the next year, the company should field offers. ????They would need to look at strategic alternatives says Colin Sebastian, senior research analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., who recently upgraded the company to outperform on cautious optimism that the company can still turn itself around. "If the reason they don't want to sell is because they're under the impression they have a lot going on, then certainly we haven't seen it," says Bhatia. "If they're going to say no, they would have to have a good reason for it." ????The company has had a stormy history since going public from missteps and other issues: quarterly earnings shortfalls, waning popularity for its FarmVille and CityVille games, the abrupt resignations of at least six senior executives since August, and concerns the company overpaid for its $200 million acquisition of OMGPOP -- a company whose "Draw Something" game began tanking in popularity after the purchase -- have all raised red flags for investors. There's also been a flurry of lawsuits, with at least six different law firms investigating concerns senior company executives, including Pincus, sold about $600 million in shares in early April -- before the lockup period expired and before the stock took a 50% nosedive. The suits also allege the company "misrepresented and/or failed to disclose materially adverse facts about its business and financial condition." ????Together, these issues have created an overhang on the stock and headwinds as the company tries to re-ignite growth. "We see the company and its stock treading water in the near-term," says Bhatia. ????Zynga needs a catalyst to kickstart growth and its stock price. A hit game, preferably for mid-core rather than casual gamers, could be one such catalyst. Zynga recently launched new casual games, such as ChefVille and FarmVille 2. But mid-core games tend to attract more dedicated and loyal gamers who usually spend more time playing games -- and therefore can potentially generate more revenue than casual games. "They've kind of hit some saturation point and they need to diversify the style of games that they make," says Sebastian. Zynga has indicated an interest in moving into this niche as it recently acquired gaming studio "A Bit Lucky" which makes mid-core games. ????Still, Zynga faces plenty of competition in the mid-core market from such seasoned firms as Electronic Arts (ERTS), and smaller firms, such as Kixeye, Kabam and Rumble Games. In fact, when news that senior executives were heading for the exits at Zynga, Kixeye put an ad on Youtube aimed at poaching Zynga's workers, stating "If you're a rockstar game maker and you don't want to put your talents toward cow clicking and virtual pet cudding, we might have a place for you..." ????Other areas where Zynga could generate growth are through mobile gaming, its Zynga.com platform, and expansion of its online poker game internationally. ????Zynga's expansion into the mobile market and recent rollout of its Zynga.com platform are aimed at lessening its reliance on Facebook. Zynga received 87% of its revenue through the Facebook platform in the latest quarter. Bhatia says it's critical the company ramp up its mobile and zynga platforms before its deal with Facebook expires in May 2015. At that time, it's possible Facebook could alter the terms of its agreement with Zynga that could potentially lower Zynga's revenue share in the deal. Currently, Facebook gets 30% of the revenue Zynga gets through the sale of virtual goods on the Facebook platform. |