????人們知道自己一直以來(lái)深信不疑的事實(shí)并非如此之時(shí)，對(duì)世界的認(rèn)識(shí)就會(huì)發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化。比方說(shuō)，我最近就發(fā)現(xiàn)頭發(fā)濕了不會(huì)導(dǎo)致感冒，運(yùn)動(dòng)前的伸展運(yùn)動(dòng)是多此一舉，每3,000英里更換機(jī)油純粹是浪費(fèi)寶貴的時(shí)間。

????但這個(gè)專欄不是要探討保健、個(gè)人理財(cái)或汽車保養(yǎng)。最近，我們獲得的一些最新分析和信息嚴(yán)重顛覆了歷來(lái)被視作汽車行業(yè)圣經(jīng)的一些觀念。以下是最新發(fā)現(xiàn)的汽車界存在的四個(gè)認(rèn)識(shí)誤區(qū)：

????誤區(qū)一：美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)一咳嗽，底特律就得感冒。

????這些年來(lái)，我們一直認(rèn)為底特律是反映美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入衰退的先行指標(biāo)。購(gòu)車是近乎完美的消費(fèi)信心衡量指標(biāo)；汽車價(jià)格昂貴，而且購(gòu)車通常可以延后。經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑跡象剛剛顯露，汽車銷售就會(huì)下滑。

????但這次不同。盡管GDP增長(zhǎng)遲緩，失業(yè)率高企，中產(chǎn)階級(jí)收入受到擠壓，汽車和卡車銷售仍在增長(zhǎng)。9月份，美國(guó)汽車銷量折合成年率接近1,500萬(wàn)輛，為2008年初以來(lái)的最高銷量。到底怎么回事？

????R.L. Polk北美預(yù)測(cè)領(lǐng)先分析師湯姆?利比表示，汽車業(yè)務(wù)的表現(xiàn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)越來(lái)越脫鉤。原因在于：“我們看到的美國(guó)汽車銷售勢(shì)頭，部分源于國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)態(tài)勢(shì)，部分源于在美經(jīng)營(yíng)的全球汽車制造商所采取的行動(dòng)。”

????作為證據(jù)，利比指出，外國(guó)汽車制造商在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的份額正在增加，它們的快速發(fā)展與美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)無(wú)關(guān)：豐田（Toyota）和本田（Honda）正在從去年日本海嘯的沖擊中逐步恢復(fù)；復(fù)蘇中的大眾（Volkswagen）重新著力美國(guó)市場(chǎng)；現(xiàn)代（Hyundai）和起亞（Kia）雖然最近由于勞工問(wèn)題出現(xiàn)庫(kù)存短缺，但已經(jīng)多月實(shí)現(xiàn)了銷售的兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。

????利比總結(jié)稱：“雖然一些北美本地趨勢(shì)對(duì)美國(guó)新車行業(yè)的走向有很大影響，但其他一些更廣泛的全球因素也在起作用。汽車制造商的全球策略和國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)態(tài)勢(shì)往往能揭示我們?cè)诿绹?guó)所看到現(xiàn)狀的背后原因?！?/p>

????誤區(qū)二：全球石油將耗盡。

????多年來(lái)，我們一直假定石油資源是有限的，全球石油很快就會(huì)枯竭。一個(gè)盛行的理論是“石油峰值理論”。在某一時(shí)間，全球石油產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到最高點(diǎn)，隨后將一路走低，導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的短缺。悲觀的預(yù)計(jì)認(rèn)為，這個(gè)峰值要么已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，要么很快就會(huì)來(lái)臨。

????但英國(guó)皇家國(guó)際事務(wù)研究所（Royal Institute of International Affairs）的一份最新報(bào)告認(rèn)為，石油耗盡的威脅已沒(méi)有那么緊迫，石油峰值理論看起來(lái)越來(lái)越不是那么回事。世界面對(duì)的不是有限的石油資源，只是需要加快速度將極其龐大的石油資源轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榭捎糜陂_(kāi)采的探明儲(chǔ)量。（感謝The Truth About Cars網(wǎng)站告知這篇報(bào)告。）

????令人驚異的事實(shí)是，由于石油價(jià)格居高不下，技術(shù)越來(lái)越先進(jìn)，我們不斷發(fā)現(xiàn)的石油數(shù)量已遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了我們的開(kāi)采能力。該報(bào)告稱，從1980年至2011年，全球的石油開(kāi)采量比原本預(yù)計(jì)埋在地下的石油儲(chǔ)量多出了1,000億桶，同時(shí)可供未來(lái)開(kāi)采的已探明儲(chǔ)量還增加了一倍還多。

????即便不再有新的發(fā)現(xiàn)或增加，以當(dāng)前的石油消耗速度，仍可用54年。事實(shí)上，石油行業(yè)還可以期待更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，因?yàn)閷?lái)還會(huì)在現(xiàn)有礦藏中發(fā)現(xiàn)更多石油儲(chǔ)量，還會(huì)有新的油田發(fā)現(xiàn)。另外隨著價(jià)格上漲，石油消費(fèi)也將減少。

????Your understanding of the world shifts in immeasurable ways when you learn that something you have always believed to be true isn't. For instance, I've lately discovered that wet heads don't cause colds, stretching before exercise is unnecessary, and changing your oil every 3,000 miles is an expensive waste of time.

????But this isn't a column about health care, personal finance, or car maintenance. Recently, we've gotten fresh analysis and new information that seriously undermine what has been considered the gospel truth in the auto business. Here are the auto world's four new misconceptions:

????Myth No. 1: When the U.S. economy catches a cold, Detroit gets pneumonia.

????For years, we've held that Detroit has led the U.S economy into recession. Car purchases are a near-perfect barometer of consumer confidence; they are expensive, and their purchase is usually deferrable. At the first sign of a business downturn, auto sales swoon.

????But not this time. Despite sluggish GDP growth, high unemployment, and the squeeze on the middle class, car and truck sales are rising. In September, they came close to an annual rate of 15 million, the fastest pace since early 2008. What's going on?

????Tom Libby, North American forecasting lead analyst for R.L. Polk, says the performance of the car business is becoming increasingly detached from the state of the economy. Reason: "The dynamics we see here in the U.S. stem in part from the patterns of international economies as well as from actions taken by global auto manufacturers who happen to be doing business in the states."

????As evidence, Libby points to the foreign automakers whose presence in the U.S. is growing and whose fortunes are improving because of factors unrelated to the economy: Toyota (TM) and Honda, which are recovering from last year's tsunami; a resurgent Volkswagen, focusing anew on the U.S market; and Hyundai/Kia, which, despite inventory shortages because of recent labor problems, has produced many months of double-digit sales gains.

????Concludes Libby: "While some local, North American trends play an influential role in the behavior of the U.S. new vehicle industry, there are other, broader global factors at work. A look at the worldwide strategies of the automakers and the patterns of the global economy frequently reveals the underlying causes for the results we witness here in the U.S."

????Myth No. 2: The world is running out of oil.

????For years, it has been assumed that oil is a finite resource that the world would soon exhaust. One prevalent theory was "peak oil." At some point, global oil production would hit a high point and then decline, causing grave shortfalls. Pessimistic predictions had that either the peak had already occurred or that it would occur shortly.

????In fact, a new report by The Royal Institute of International Affairs in the U.K., informally known as Chatham House, finds that the threat of oil running out is no longer imminent, and the concept of peak oil increasingly looks like a bad idea. The world is faced not with a finite amount of oil but merely needs to accelerate the speed at which surprisingly large resources of oil can be converted into proven reserves for potential production. (Thanks to the web site The Truth About Cars for alerting me to this report).

????The amazing fact is that because of higher prices and better technology, we keep finding more oil that we can extract. From 1980 to 2011, the report says, the world produced 100 billion more barrels of oil than there was supposed to be in the ground, and proven reserves remaining for future production more than doubled.

????Moreover, even with no further discoveries or additions, a 54-years supply of oil is left at current rates of consumption. In reality, the petroleum industry can expect an even longer life because more oil will be found in existing deposits, there will be new discoveries, and consumption will decline as prices rise.