新興市場(chǎng)教父:中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)崩盤(pán)
????這些年來(lái),馬克?莫比烏斯贏得了不少稱(chēng)號(hào),比如“新興市場(chǎng)教父”、“環(huán)球旅行家”等,所有這些稱(chēng)號(hào)都源于同一個(gè)事實(shí):這位現(xiàn)年73歲的投資者長(zhǎng)時(shí)間以來(lái)一直是華爾街最?lèi)?ài)冒險(xiǎn)的投資者之一。他投資發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)長(zhǎng)達(dá)40多年,對(duì)世界增長(zhǎng)最快的地區(qū)擁有罕見(jiàn)的洞察力。如今莫比烏斯擔(dān)任著弗蘭克林-鄧普頓(Franklin Templeton)新興市場(chǎng)集團(tuán)董事長(zhǎng)的職位,管理著450億美元的資產(chǎn),正在押下與眾不同的賭注。他認(rèn)為,中國(guó)超強(qiáng)的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)將得以延續(xù),而歐洲能通過(guò)自救,避免毀滅。對(duì)于中國(guó),他表示,“人們過(guò)于悲觀了?!痹跉W洲,他認(rèn)為即使決策層仍在努力忙著解決大問(wèn)題,一些規(guī)模較小的國(guó)家頗有價(jià)值。(他對(duì)此充滿(mǎn)信心。)喜歡穿白西裝、打亮色領(lǐng)帶的莫比烏斯從他在新加坡的辦公室接受了《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)記者的電話(huà)采訪。以下是經(jīng)過(guò)編輯的采訪摘要: 現(xiàn)在,很多人對(duì)于中國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)都持懷疑態(tài)度。您說(shuō)增長(zhǎng)率是7%。這是真的嗎? ????我知道,很多人都質(zhì)疑中國(guó)發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù),但如果看與中國(guó)相關(guān)的獨(dú)立數(shù)據(jù),比方說(shuō),從西方、從日本、從德國(guó)出口到中國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看,你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),增長(zhǎng)率還是非常不錯(cuò)的。如今,很顯然,增長(zhǎng)正在減速,但并不意味著中國(guó)不再繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。即便是最悲觀的預(yù)計(jì),也可能是預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)5%,比美國(guó)或歐洲當(dāng)前的增速高出了5倍。 那么,為什么中國(guó)股市今年毫無(wú)起色? ????中國(guó)股市表現(xiàn)不好的一個(gè)原因是大量的新股發(fā)售,也就是IPO。去年,新興市場(chǎng)IPO總額約為2,500億美元,其中很大一部分在中國(guó)。今年很可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)同樣的狀況。新股這樣涌入市場(chǎng),往往會(huì)從抽走二級(jí)市場(chǎng)的資金,導(dǎo)致股票市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)欠佳。這種狀況不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去。隨著更多資金進(jìn)入這些市場(chǎng),會(huì)有轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)出現(xiàn)。 您為什么持有這么多大型能源股,比如俄羅斯的盧克石油(Lukoil)、俄羅斯天然氣公司(Gazprom)和中國(guó)石油(PetroChina)? ????我們?cè)谑澜绺鞯芈眯械倪^(guò)程中注意到的一件事情,無(wú)論是在中國(guó)、非洲還是其他任何地方,都對(duì)能源有巨大的需求。這是受到運(yùn)輸極大增長(zhǎng),以及冰箱、洗衣機(jī)、空調(diào)、電腦、手提電腦、iPhone等消費(fèi)增加的推動(dòng)所致。所有這些都需要電,而發(fā)電的最有效方式是通過(guò)煤炭或石油。所有有關(guān)大宗商品價(jià)格下跌的擔(dān)憂(yōu)都過(guò)度了。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,趨勢(shì)相當(dāng)明確:大宗商品價(jià)格將繼續(xù)上漲。 |
????Mark Mobius has picked up a variety of nicknames over the years -- the Pied Piper of Emerging Markets, the Globetrotter -- but all of them are inspired by the same fact: The 73-year-old has long been one of Wall Street's most adventurous investors. After more than four decades of investing in developing markets, he has rare insight into the world's fastest-growing regions. Today Mobius, who as chairman of the emerging-markets group at Franklin Templeton manages $45 billion in assets, is betting against the crowd. He believes that China's superpowered growth will continue and thatEurope will save itself from utter destruction. On China, he says, "People have gotten too pessimistic." And in Europe he's finding gems in smaller countries even as policymakers work to solve the big issues. (He's confident they will.) Mobius, who favors white suits and bright ties, spoke by phone with Fortune from his office in Singapore. Here are edited excerpts: A lot of people are skeptical about China's GDP growth now. You say the growth rate is 7%. But is it real? ????I know a lot of people have questioned the statistics coming out of China, but if you look at independent statistics as related to China -- for example, exports from the West, from Japan, from Germany to China -- you will see that the growth rates are very healthy. Now, it's clear that there's a deceleration of growth taking place, but that deceleration doesn't mean that China's not growing. Even at the most pessimistic forecast, you're probably looking at 5% growth, which is five times higher than what the U.S. or Europe is doing. So why haven't Chinese stocks gone anywhere this year? ????One of the reasons the stock market in China has not performed very well is because of the tremendous number of new issues, or IPOs. Last year they totaled about $250 billion in all emerging markets -- and a large portion of that was just in China. This year it will probably be about the same. When you have that kind of new paper coming in, it tends to draw money away from the secondary market, and the stock markets tend to underperform. It's not going to last forever. There will be an evening out as more money comes into these markets. Why do you own so many big energy companies, such as Russia's Lukoil and Gazprom and China's PetroChina? ????One of the things that we notice as we travel around the world, whether it be in China or Africa or anywhere else, is an incredible appetite for energy driven by the tremendous increase in transportation but also by the increased consumption of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, computers, laptops, iPhones -- you name it. All of this requires power, and that power is most efficiently produced by coal and by oil. All the fears about commodity prices declining have been overdone. Over the long term, the trends are very clear: Commodity prices will continue to rise. |