3D技術(shù)為什么火不起來(lái)？
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????3D技術(shù)曾被視為電影和視頻演化史的下一個(gè)重大革新，是音效、色彩和寬屏格式發(fā)展到一定階段后繼往開(kāi)來(lái)的新事物。然而，除了像《阿凡達(dá)》（Avatar）這類大片上映時(shí)激發(fā)了觀眾的熱情，拉高了影院票房之外，3D技術(shù)在家庭中并沒(méi)有真正獲得追捧。上市三年后，人們對(duì)3D電視機(jī)的興趣已經(jīng)大不如前，哪怕它的價(jià)格已大幅回落。 ????3D電影在電影院還只是一個(gè)小眾市場(chǎng)，不過(guò)其市場(chǎng)地位頗為穩(wěn)固。據(jù)市場(chǎng)研究公司IHS iSuppli稱，3D電影占2011年票房總收入的19%。雖然3D電視機(jī)普及的速度仍然緩慢，但人們對(duì)包括便攜式游戲機(jī)和手機(jī)在內(nèi)的其他類型設(shè)備上的3D技術(shù)的興趣預(yù)計(jì)將不斷增長(zhǎng)。市場(chǎng)研究公司NPD集團(tuán)（NPD Group）顯示器研究部門(mén)（Display Search）預(yù)測(cè)，3D電視機(jī)最終將迎來(lái)銷售增長(zhǎng)，從2011年的區(qū)區(qū)2,500萬(wàn)臺(tái)增長(zhǎng)到2019年的1.8億臺(tái)。 ????此外，顯示器研究部門(mén)還預(yù)測(cè)，3D技術(shù)將被運(yùn)用到電視以外的幾類產(chǎn)品上，包括手機(jī)和游戲機(jī)這類便攜設(shè)備。任天堂（Nintendo）的3DS掌上游戲機(jī)就是這類設(shè)備中的一款熱賣(mài)產(chǎn)品，它7月的總銷量高達(dá)500萬(wàn)臺(tái)。與多數(shù)3D電視機(jī)不同，這款游戲機(jī)采用了所謂的自動(dòng)立體3D技術(shù)，用戶無(wú)需佩戴特制的眼鏡就能看到立體效果。 ????其實(shí)，必不可少的3D眼鏡正是導(dǎo)致3D需求不振的主因，因而它也飽受各方指摘。NPD 顯示器研究部的新興顯示技術(shù)（Emerging Display Technologies）副總裁詹妮弗?科爾格羅夫稱：“主動(dòng)式眼鏡很貴，而且還比較笨重?！?/p> ????由于每位觀賞者都需要一副眼鏡才能觀看3D內(nèi)容，否則圖像會(huì)模糊不清，這個(gè)因素成為影響3D普及的一大障礙，而且事實(shí)證明這個(gè)問(wèn)題很難解決。被動(dòng)式眼鏡則要便宜得多，LG些電視機(jī)廠商一直在推廣被動(dòng)式3D技術(shù)。迄今為止，只有東芝公司（Toshiba）推出過(guò)一款完全不需要眼鏡的3D電視，但那些曾在1月份的消費(fèi)電子展（CES）上看到過(guò)這款產(chǎn)品的人都對(duì)其價(jià)格和圖像品質(zhì)表示懷疑?？茽柛窳_夫補(bǔ)充稱：“我們確實(shí)把這看成是購(gòu)買(mǎi)3D設(shè)備的潮流開(kāi)端，不過(guò)3D市場(chǎng)要發(fā)展壯大，必須是不需要額外配備眼鏡，只用裸眼觀看才行?！?/p> ????而內(nèi)容仍有賴于技術(shù)，但只需要看看任天堂的3DS就能發(fā)現(xiàn)，這一技術(shù)可能依然存在缺陷。比如說(shuō)，立體效果更像是模擬的，而不是真正讓人身臨其境的3D環(huán)境。有些人干脆懷疑，無(wú)論是否需要眼鏡，3D電視機(jī)是不是真地能讓人對(duì)便攜設(shè)備上的3D技術(shù)感興趣。研究公司M2 Research的資深分析師比利?皮德根稱：“我發(fā)現(xiàn)，要全盤(pán)接受這項(xiàng)技術(shù)有點(diǎn)困難，也沒(méi)看出來(lái)它會(huì)如何產(chǎn)生‘涓滴效應(yīng)’（trickledown effect）。但我深信，很快所有電視機(jī)出廠時(shí)都會(huì)內(nèi)置3D。到了這個(gè)水平，3D的滲透率就能得到提高了。” ????還會(huì)有哪些類型的設(shè)備內(nèi)置3D呢？其中一個(gè)可能是手機(jī)，但美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上至今還沒(méi)這種產(chǎn)品。IHS iSuppli的移動(dòng)媒體部門(mén)資深首席分析師伊恩?福格稱：“除了LG公司，還沒(méi)有哪家公司在日本以外的市場(chǎng)推出過(guò)3D智能手機(jī)。實(shí)際上，手機(jī)屏幕普遍不支持3D，在不久的將來(lái)這種技術(shù)也不會(huì)大規(guī)模推廣?！?/p> ????分析師稱，這項(xiàng)技術(shù)要想取得成功，就必須變得更直觀，并且要能應(yīng)用于電視或電影之外的更多領(lǐng)域。福格稱：“帶有兩個(gè)500萬(wàn)攝像頭的3D手機(jī)是最直接的應(yīng)用，這樣用戶就能創(chuàng)作自己的內(nèi)容并在手機(jī)上回放。但是手機(jī)或平板電腦上的許多游戲用這項(xiàng)技術(shù)就會(huì)有問(wèn)題，因?yàn)樵S多游戲——如賽車(chē)類游戲——會(huì)用到加速計(jì)，這就要求用戶傾斜設(shè)備。這會(huì)給用免費(fèi)眼鏡觀看3D畫(huà)面的用戶體驗(yàn)帶來(lái)問(wèn)題，因?yàn)槿绻恢币曔@種畫(huà)面，它看起來(lái)就會(huì)失真?！?/p> ????而在用戶的客廳里，應(yīng)該成為殺手級(jí)應(yīng)用——即游戲——的內(nèi)容也并未如期推出。皮德根稱：“微軟（Microsoft）一拖再拖，索尼（Sony）一拖再拖，連任天堂也有點(diǎn)打退堂鼓的意思。這表明，市面上將會(huì)涌現(xiàn)出一大批3D電視機(jī)，因?yàn)橛心敲炊鄰S商要賣(mài)這個(gè)產(chǎn)品，但這不意味著人們會(huì)看3D電視。只有當(dāng)人們真正開(kāi)始觀看3D電視時(shí)，我才會(huì)相信這個(gè)技術(shù)的生命力?！?/p> ????譯者：清遠(yuǎn) |
????3D was supposed to be the next big thing in the evolution of cinema and video, picking up where sound, color and the widescreen format had left off. But, aside from a small impact in movie theaters where blockbusters like Avatar drove interest, 3D hasn't exactly take off in the home. Going on three years interest 3D TVs have fallen flat, even as the prices have fallen too. ????At the movie theaters 3D is still a niche, but one that is holding steady. According to market researcher IHS iSuppli, 3D generated 19% of box office revenue in 2011. And while 3D TVs remain slow to catch on, interest in 3D on other devices, including portable game systems and mobile phones, is actually expected to grow. NPD Group's Display Search predicted that 3D TVs will eventually see sales increase, and grow from just 25 million units in 2011 to around 180 million units in 2019. ????Moreover, Display Search predicts that 3D will grow across several categories beyond TV including portable devices such as mobile handsets and game systems. One such device that has been seen as a hit is the Nintendo (NTDOY) 3DS handheld game system, which hit five million total sales in July. Unlike with most TVs, the game system utilizes so-called auto-stereoscopic 3D technology that does not require glasses for the users to see the effects. ????And, it has been the required glasses that have been blamed for the sluggish demand for 3D. "The active glasses are expensive," says Jennifer Colegrove, vice president of Emerging Display Technologies at NPD Display Search. "These tend to be bulky and heavy." ????As every viewer in the room needs glasses to view the content -- which appears blurry without glasses -- this has been a hurdle that has proved difficult to overcome. The passive glasses are far cheaper, and some TV makers such as LG have been pushing for passive 3D. But to date, only Toshiba has introduced a set that requires no glasses at all, and those who saw it at CES in January remain skeptical about the price and the quality of the picture. "We do see this as the start of a trend to have 3D," adds Colegrove, "but without glasses, with just the naked eye." ????The content will still depend on the technology, and one only needs to look as far as the Nintendo 3DS to see that it could have drawbacks. For one, the effect is more simulated than a truly immersive 3D environment. Some are even skeptical if 3D TV -- with or without glasses -- will lead to interest in 3D in portable devices. "I find it a little hard to swallow," says Billy Pidgeon, senior analyst at M2 Research. "I don't see how this will result in a trickledown effect, but I do believe that soon every TV going forward will have 3D built-in. That will increase penetration from that level." ????What other types of devices could include 3D? One possibility could be mobile phones, but so far none have arrived in America. "No one has released a 3D smartphone outside of Japan, except LG," says Ian Fogg, senior principal analyst for mobile media at IHS iSuppli. "Virtually no screens support 3D in the mobile space, and it isn't going to take off in the near future." ????For the technology to succeed, say analysts, it needs to become more intuitive and apply in more cases than just watching TV or moviews. "The mobile phones with 3D have two 5-megapixel cameras that were the most straightforward use, so users could create their own content and view it back on a screen," says Fogg. "But games on phones and tablets could be a problem as many titles -- such as racing games -- use an accelerometer that requires that you tilt the device. This in turn creates a problem for user experience with glasses free watching as the image doesn't look right if you're not viewing it straight on." ????In the living room, the content that should be the killer app -- namely games -- haven't been delivered as promised. "Microsoft (MSFT) has backed off it," adds Pidgeon. "Sony (SNE) has backed off it, and even Nintendo has somewhat backed off it. What this says is that there could very well be plenty of 3D TVs out there as that is what manufacturers will sell, but that doesn't mean people will be watching it. I'll believe it when I see it." |
