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奧巴馬在高盛的好兄弟

奧巴馬在高盛的好兄弟

Mina Kimes 2012-11-08
2008年總統(tǒng)大選時,高盛員工曾經(jīng)一邊倒地支持奧巴馬。然而,這次大選,這幫人卻集體倒戈,轉(zhuǎn)而支持奧巴馬的對手。奧巴馬在高盛或許已失去了很多支持者,但這家銀行的首席經(jīng)濟學家簡?哈祖斯仍然堅定推崇他的經(jīng)濟政策,提倡刺激開支,呼吁推出更多的量化寬松政策。

????這位高盛經(jīng)濟學家一直是赤字鷹派人物的眼中釘。比方說,他在2010年時曾經(jīng)說:“很多年內(nèi)通貨膨脹都不太可能是個問題。”2011年,他發(fā)表了《對名義GDP目標的分析》(The case for a Nominal GDP Level Target)報告,闡明了他信奉的觀點,此后,這種觀點已經(jīng)逐漸贏得了支持。設(shè)定名義國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(NGDP)目標,最早是由教授和博主斯考特?薩姆納推行的一個理念。大致設(shè)想是由美聯(lián)儲(Fed)官員設(shè)定名義GDP目標,并承諾采取一切可能的措施(例如購買資產(chǎn))達到這個水平。哈祖斯在報告中提到薩姆納時稱,設(shè)定名義GDP目標是“Fed最有前途的選擇”。

????金融危機爆發(fā)后,哈祖斯憑借危機前的精確預(yù)言備受矚目。曾在牛津大學(Oxford)和威斯康辛大學麥迪遜分校(University of Wisconsin-Madison)求學的哈祖斯于1997年加盟高盛法蘭??宿k公室。他在2011年成為高盛的首席經(jīng)濟學家,接替現(xiàn)任紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)行長威廉?杜德利。

????美國聯(lián)邦選舉委員會(Federal Election Commission)的記錄顯示,哈祖斯曾在2004年向共和黨全國委員會捐款1,000美元,2007年向奧巴馬捐款2,300美元。這次大選,他只向高盛的政治行動委員會捐了款,這個委員會同時支持兩個政黨的候選人。

????早在2005年,哈祖斯就拉響了住房市場的警報,當時他發(fā)表了一篇題為《泡沫危機?也許是吧》(Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes)的報告。2007年12月,經(jīng)濟專欄作家本?斯坦恩在《紐約時報》上批評哈祖斯的悲觀預(yù)測,聲稱他是在制造恐慌情緒,為高盛的看跌頭寸造勢。

????斯坦恩(錯誤地)嘲笑了哈祖斯的觀點,后者認為,次貸危機可能會失控,阻礙貸款和經(jīng)濟增長?!八€假定,”他寫道,“銀行將不得不進行深度收縮,導(dǎo)致貸款停滯,經(jīng)濟增長蹣跚——二戰(zhàn)以來從來沒有出現(xiàn)過這樣的情形,除非美聯(lián)儲有意為之。”(這篇文章單從娛樂價值而言,值得一看,點擊閱讀。)

????雖然華爾街經(jīng)濟學家通常都不會做出明確的政治評論,但有些知名的預(yù)測人士已表示,一旦羅姆尼當選,他將提振市場。巴克萊銀行(Barclays)美國首席股票策略師巴瑞?納普10月份時預(yù)測稱,共和黨獲勝可能推高股市。他在另外一份報告中稱,如果羅姆尼獲勝,將“雙管齊下”,推行“促進經(jīng)濟增長的稅收和福利改革”。擁躉甚多的知名看跌經(jīng)濟學家大衛(wèi)?羅森博格最近在一次采訪中表示,羅姆尼更可能妥協(xié),使得他(當選)“總體上對經(jīng)濟更有利”。

????哈祖斯沒有明確說過他認為奧巴馬獲勝將有利于美國經(jīng)濟。一位高盛發(fā)言人稱:“任何預(yù)測的依據(jù)都是我們對經(jīng)濟運行規(guī)律、政府政策對市場和利率的影響等問題的認識。我們的目標是盡可能準確,而不是支持某個黨派的政策?!?/p>

????然而,哈祖斯的立場毫無疑問會令當前的政府很高興。奧巴馬在高盛或許已失去很多支持者,但他仍然保住了一位有智慧的盟友——盡管捐款減少了,但這個盟友或許更值錢。

????譯者:早稻米

????The Goldman economist has been a thorn in the side of deficit hawks, arguing in 2010, for example, that "inflation is unlikely to become a problem for years." In 2011, he published a note titled "The case for a Nominal GDP Level Target," giving his endorsement to the idea, which has since gained momentum. NGDP targeting, a concept that was promoted early on by the professor and blogger Scott Sumner, would have Fed officials targeting a nominal GDP level, and then pledging to do whatever it takes (e.g. buying assets) to reach that level. In his note, which cited Sumner, Hatzius called NGDP targeting "the Fed's most promising option."

????The economist rose to prominence during the financial meltdown, largely because of his accurate prognostications leading up to the crisis. Schooled at Oxford and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Hatzius joined Goldman's Frankfurt office in 1997. He became the chief economist at Goldman in 2011, succeeding William Dudley, the current president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

????Federal Election Commission records show that Hatzius donated $1000 to the Democratic National Committee in 2004 and $2300 to Obama in 2007. During this election cycle, he only donated to Goldman's political action committee, which had backed candidates from both parties.

????Hatzius sounded warnings about the housing market as early as 2005, when he published a report that asked "Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes." In December of 2007, the economics writer Ben Stein criticized Hatzius in the New York Times for his gloomy prognostications, accusing the economist of fear-mongering in order to support Goldman's bearish position.

????Stein (incorrectly) mocked Hatzius for his view that the subprime mortgage crisis could spin out of control, hampering lending and slowing growth. "He is also postulating," Stein wrote, "that lenders would have to retrench so deeply that lending would stall and growth would falter -- an event that, again, has not happened on any scale in the postwar world, except when planned by the central bank." (The piece, available here, is worth reading for its comedic value alone).

????While Wall Street economists typically avoid giving explicit political commentary, some well known forecasters have said that a Romney win would boost the market. Barry Knapp, the top U.S. equities strategist at Barclays, predicted in October that a GOP sweep would likely send stocks higher; he observed in a separate note that a Romney win would "carry a dual mandate" of "pro-growth tax reform and entitlement reform." David Rosenberg, a notoriously bearish economist with a large following, recently said in an interviewthat Romney would be more likely to compromise, making him "overall better for the economy."

????Hatzius has not said outright that he believes an Obama victory would benefit the economy. A Goldman Sachs (GS) spokesperson said, "Forecasts are informed by our views on how the economy works and what government policy will mean for markets and interest rates. Our goal is to be as accurate as possible, not to champion the policies of either party."

????And yet, Hatzius' positions have no doubt pleased the administration. The President may have lost many of his supporters at Goldman, but he has maintained an intellectual ally—which may be worth more than the decline in donations.

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