????我們估計(jì)未來數(shù)周這樣的僵局還會(huì)持續(xù)，加劇美國人的焦慮情緒。它已經(jīng)損害到了增長(zhǎng)、投資和就業(yè)創(chuàng)造。預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)歷高潮迭起、波折叢生之后，最后一刻可能會(huì)達(dá)成妥協(xié)，妥協(xié)的結(jié)果是奧巴馬將獲勝。

????奧巴馬有著更有力的論據(jù)。他明白這一點(diǎn)。共和黨人也明白這一點(diǎn)。這只是個(gè)時(shí)間問題，需要等到足夠多的美國公民也意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)。

????政治上，奧巴馬剛剛在美國總統(tǒng)大選中贏得了決定性的勝利。收入分配是此次大選中的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題，包括美國中低收入人群的福祉持續(xù)地相對(duì)下降。奧巴馬在全美大選中的獲勝得到了像加利福尼亞等州的支持，這些州的居民直接投票支持富人加稅以更好地提供教育資金。

????美國人也知道過去十年對(duì)富人而言是特別好的十年。他們的收入和財(cái)富在光景好的年份突飛猛漲；同時(shí)，得益于政府的救助計(jì)劃和前所未有的央行干預(yù)，在光景不好的年份受到的影響也相對(duì)有限。

????大多數(shù)共和黨人也認(rèn)可這些，但他們認(rèn)為，富人加稅對(duì)所有人都不利——主要理由是它會(huì)削弱創(chuàng)業(yè)、冒險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張的動(dòng)力。

????雖然稅率上調(diào)的確會(huì)產(chǎn)生這樣的效果，但鑒于當(dāng)前的環(huán)境和近年來的情況，這樣的理由仍然有點(diǎn)牽強(qiáng)。如果與其他可能性相比，這個(gè)理由的問題就更大了，比如跌落財(cái)政懸崖，或者實(shí)施更大的調(diào)整（針對(duì)處于邊緣、邊際消費(fèi)傾向不可避免更高的人群），避免跌落財(cái)政懸崖。

????如果到了必須作出決斷的時(shí)候，而且這個(gè)時(shí)刻最終會(huì)到來，那時(shí)，理性最終將獲勝。

????預(yù)計(jì)美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬（應(yīng)該）會(huì)堅(jiān)持對(duì)最高收入人群加稅。共和黨人肯定會(huì)叫喚，但最終還是得妥協(xié)。這樣才能避免美國經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰。

????美國上下將長(zhǎng)出一口氣。但人們很快就會(huì)意識(shí)到，美國致力于恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)活力、確保金融健康以及克服政治失靈的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將持續(xù)經(jīng)年，而這只是這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中的一場(chǎng)小戰(zhàn)役。在這里，比以往任何時(shí)候都更加需要美國民主黨和共和黨的建設(shè)性互動(dòng)，這一點(diǎn)既緊迫又重要。

????穆罕默德?埃爾-埃利安是太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)席首席投資官。

????譯者：早稻米

????We should expect this impasse to persist for a few weeks, adding to the anxiety that Americans already feel – and which has already undermined growth, investment and job creation. After lots of high drama, a compromise is likely to emerge in the eleventh hour and it will be one in which President Obama prevails.

????The President has the stronger set of arguments. He knows it. The Republicans know it. And it is only a matter of time until enough citizens realize it too.

????Politically, the President just won a decisive election in which income distribution was a key issue, including the persistent relative decline in the wellbeing of middle- and low-income Americans. His national victory was supported by states such as California where, collectively, citizens directly voted for higher taxes on the rich in order to better fund education.

????Americans also know that the last decade has been a particularly prosperous one for the rich. Their income and wealth rose at pronounced rates in the good years; and the downside during the bad years was curtailed for many by government bailouts and unprecedented central bank activism.

????While most Republicans will acknowledge all this, they will argue that taxing the rich is bad for all – principally because it reduces incentives for entrepreneurship, risk taking and economic expansion.

????While true at higher tax rates, it is a bit of a stretch to make this an overriding argument in present circumstances and in light of recent history. It is an even more problematic argument when compared to the alternatives – of going over the fiscal cliff or avoiding it by forcing greater adjustment on those already struggling and whose marginal propensity to consume is inevitably higher.

????When push comes to shove, and it will, rationality will ultimately prevail.

????President Obama will – and should – insist on increasing taxes on the highest earning brackets. The Republicans will shout and scream but end up going along. An economic debacle will thus be avoided.

????America will breathe a collective sigh of relief. But it will be dampened by the realization that this is only a small battle in America's multiyear war to restore economic dynamism, ensure financial soundness, and overcome political dysfunction. And here the need for constructive interactions between Democrats and Republicans is even more demanding, yet just as urgent and important.

????Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.