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埃及危機(jī)蘊(yùn)藏希望

埃及危機(jī)蘊(yùn)藏希望

Mohamed El-Erian 2012-11-29
當(dāng)前埃及的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)前景嚴(yán)峻,但還不到絕望的時(shí)候。實(shí)際上,如果處理得當(dāng),這次最新?tīng)?zhēng)端或許反而能幫助埃及及時(shí)而富有建設(shè)性地修正前進(jìn)的道路,帶來(lái)持久的正面效應(yīng)。

????蹣跚掙扎的埃及經(jīng)濟(jì)最不愿看到的就是國(guó)內(nèi)政治危機(jī):黨派領(lǐng)袖針?shù)h相對(duì),司法體系與政府勢(shì)不兩立,街頭抗議一點(diǎn)就著。但自11月22日埃及總統(tǒng)穆?tīng)栁黝C布新憲法聲明、賦予總統(tǒng)更多權(quán)力以來(lái),埃及恰恰是走上了這樣一條路。

????結(jié)果是在埃及國(guó)內(nèi)外引發(fā)了更深的憂(yōu)慮,有些人甚至開(kāi)始懷疑這個(gè)國(guó)家還能不能完成這兩年來(lái)從獨(dú)裁專(zhuān)制到民主和尊重人權(quán)的轉(zhuǎn)型。近日,穆?tīng)栁骺偨y(tǒng)在以色列和巴勒斯坦官員之間斡旋、最終促成加沙?;鹚l(fā)的全球一片推崇之聲,也已讓位于對(duì)埃及國(guó)內(nèi)權(quán)力斗爭(zhēng)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

????這些擔(dān)憂(yōu)可以理解。它們本質(zhì)上與當(dāng)前埃及復(fù)雜微妙的局勢(shì)相關(guān):埃及正在進(jìn)行歷史性的革命轉(zhuǎn)型。這兩年埃及的革命轉(zhuǎn)型之路一波三折,新憲法聲明引發(fā)的這場(chǎng)政治危機(jī)就好比是一朵新飄來(lái)的烏云,但即便是這朵烏云,仍然有可能會(huì)透出一線(xiàn)光明。

????關(guān)于這場(chǎng)革命的總結(jié)陳詞早已廣為人知。埃及草根革命以勇敢的青年運(yùn)動(dòng)為先鋒,以相對(duì)和平的方式迅速推翻了穆巴拉克的統(tǒng)治。此后,這個(gè)國(guó)家經(jīng)歷了從革命到建設(shè)的艱難轉(zhuǎn)型:從廢除過(guò)去根深蒂固的殘余,到建立起一個(gè)民眾追求的美好未來(lái)。

????埃及缺乏組織和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人來(lái)推動(dòng)迅速有序地轉(zhuǎn)變。

????除了武裝力量,幾乎所有政府組織(和幾家私營(yíng)組織)多年來(lái)都被用于為少數(shù)利益服務(wù)。將這些組織重新定位,為多數(shù)人的利益服務(wù),同時(shí)得到整個(gè)埃及社會(huì)的接納,這些需要時(shí)間,還要克服種種困難。

????2011年埃及革命爆發(fā)之初,頗被看好的埃及軍方未能贏得廣泛的信任和支持。

????埃及軍方明智地避開(kāi)了內(nèi)戰(zhàn)陷阱;隨后在利比亞爆發(fā)的內(nèi)戰(zhàn)以及目前仍在繼續(xù)的敘利亞內(nèi)戰(zhàn)都造成了巨大的人員傷亡。但埃及軍方在處理穆巴拉克被推翻后的復(fù)雜微妙局面時(shí)多有失誤。

????埃及也缺乏像曼德拉那樣德高望重的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人,迅速帶領(lǐng)這個(gè)國(guó)家“寬恕過(guò)去,但始終銘記”。

????突然爆發(fā)的草根革命缺乏有組織能力的革命者。而那些渴望擔(dān)當(dāng)這一角色的人們?cè)谧畛醯恼握婵掌谖茨芙o予自己適當(dāng)?shù)亩ㄎ弧?/p>

????The very last thing a struggling Egyptian economy needed is a domestic political crisis that divides its leading personalities, pits the judicial branch against the executive, and ignites street protests. Yet this is exactly where the country finds itself following Thursday's decree that grants more power to the president.

????The result is greater anxiety, both within and outside Egypt – so much so that more people seem to be giving up on the country's ability to complete its bumpy multi-year transition from dictatorship to greater democracy and respect for human rights. Moreover, in the short term, widespread global admiration for President Morsi's crucial role in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza between Israeli and Palestinian officials has given way to concern about an internal grab for power.

????These concerns are understandable. They are intrinsically related to the delicate conditions under which Egypt is navigating its historic revolutionary transition. But even this new cloud now hanging over the country's already-difficult multi-year journey could end up having a silver lining.

????The conventional summary narrative is well known by now. Egypt's grassroots revolution, led by courageous youth movements, overthrew President Mubarak in a quick and relatively peaceful manner. Thereafter, the country has had a challenging time navigating the trickiest revolutionary pivot of all: from dismantling the past and its deeply-entrenched remnants, to building a better future that commands broad-based popular buy-in.

????Egypt has lacked both the institutions and the leaders for a rapid and orderly transition.

????Apart from the armed forces, virtually all public institutions (and several private ones) were coopted over many years to serve narrow interests. Re-orienting them to enable and support the greater good, and to do so with acceptance across Egyptian society, is inherently challenging and time consuming.

????The one institution that commanded broad admiration at the outset of revolution in 2011 – Egypt's armed forces – failed to build on its widespread credibility and support.

????The armed forces brilliantly avoided the tragic trap of fueling a civil war, as subsequently happened in Libya and is now occurring in Syria with horrid human casualties. But they stumbled when it came to the delicate task of handling well the immediate and complicated aftermath of Mubarak's overthrow.

????Egypt was also short of a Mandela type leader who could credibly and rapidly move the nation forward by "forgiving but not forgetting the past."

????The sudden grassroots revolution lacked well-recognized revolutionaries. And those who aspired to this role tripped in positioning themselves properly during the initial political vacuum.

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