美國住房市場將再度下跌

????新澤西州經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蓋瑞?謝林這一悲觀預(yù)測曾讓記者們頗感興趣。擔(dān)憂總是能成為好的頭條，這是當(dāng)然，而且，他也擅長這么做。問題是，他最看空的美國住房市場2012年全年一直在上漲。

????謝林曾警告稱，2012年將發(fā)生一波止贖潮，預(yù)計(jì)將有300萬-500萬套房屋繼續(xù)留在影子庫存中，給市場造成沖擊，影響美國總體房價(jià)。但這些預(yù)言一件也沒有發(fā)生。止贖屋入市有序，這很大程度上是因?yàn)楹芏嘀冠H都是發(fā)生在佛羅里達(dá)等需要法官批準(zhǔn)止贖的州。就在謝林高呼2012年狼來了的時(shí)候，房屋建筑商股價(jià)反彈，房價(jià)穩(wěn)步上漲，美國新屋建設(shè)趕不上需求。謝林，是時(shí)候調(diào)整看空了。

Housing to slump, again

????Gary Shilling, an economist in New Jersey, delights journalists with his dour forecasts. Fear makes good headlines, of course, and he's good at making them. Problem is, he's been wrong on his biggest short -- U.S. housing -- all year.

????Shilling warned of a wave of foreclosures in 2012, predicting that some 3 million to 5 million homes would remain in a shadow inventory, flooding the market and hurting all U.S. home prices. But that just hasn't happened. Foreclosures are hitting markets at an orderly pace, in large part because so many foreclosures have occurred in states like Florida that require a judge to approve the process. As Shilling cried wolf in 2012, homebuilder stocks roared back, home prices steadily rose, and new homes couldn't be built fast enough in the U.S. Time for a new short, Gary.