買房經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力上升

????五年前，美國(guó)住宅市場(chǎng)泡沫破裂，造就了最廉價(jià)的買入時(shí)機(jī)。房地產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站Trulia的租賃與購(gòu)房報(bào)告顯示，在美國(guó)很多地方，哪怕是像紐約、火奴魯魯?shù)葍r(jià)格最貴的市場(chǎng)中，購(gòu)房成本也已低于租房。按揭貸款利率創(chuàng)下新低，也使得買房更能承受。

????但這種情況正在發(fā)生變化。房?jī)r(jià)在2012年觸底回升。這一刻終于到來(lái)！雖然這告訴我們房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在復(fù)蘇，但也意味著2013年買房壓力將上升。11月份，賣房掛牌價(jià)同比上漲3.8%，為2007年住房市場(chǎng)崩潰以來(lái)最大的同比漲幅之一。雖然全美范圍內(nèi)房租漲幅仍快于房?jī)r(jià)漲幅，但在Trulia調(diào)查的25個(gè)最大租房市場(chǎng)（包括丹佛、西雅圖和舊金山）中，有14個(gè)市場(chǎng)的這個(gè)趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)扭轉(zhuǎn)。

漲不漲別看房?jī)r(jià)，看就業(yè)率

????大多數(shù)人都會(huì)看房?jī)r(jià)來(lái)衡量住宅市場(chǎng)健康與否。但這并不適用于2012年。價(jià)格上漲不一定意味著行業(yè)整體好轉(zhuǎn)。Trulia的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杰德?科爾科表示，要看明年房市怎么樣更好的辦法是看就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率。

????拉斯維加斯、邁阿密和鳳凰城等城市的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)大漲，但漲勢(shì)能持續(xù)多久并不清楚。房?jī)r(jià)上漲一部分是因?yàn)檫^(guò)去跌了太多，還有一部分是因?yàn)楹芏嘧》咳蕴幱谥冠H程序中。這些城市也處于全美一些失業(yè)率最高的州，失業(yè)率與人們的購(gòu)買能力息息相關(guān)。

????科爾科列出了他預(yù)測(cè)的2013年最健康的10個(gè)市場(chǎng)。得克薩斯州的城市占了大部分，讓我們祝賀它吧。

貸款拖欠率下降（非常緩慢地）

????陷入困境的美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在的一大問(wèn)題就是創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的止贖水平。因此，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們非常關(guān)注貸款拖欠率；房屋所有人拖欠還款是止贖的先兆。全美范圍內(nèi)，按揭貸款拖欠率自2006年的1.49%連漲12個(gè)季度后，在2009年的最后三個(gè)月達(dá)到了6.89%的峰值。

????截至最近的一個(gè)季度，拖欠率已經(jīng)下降至5.41%。預(yù)計(jì)2013年拖欠率可能繼續(xù)緩慢下行至2%左右。很多拖欠來(lái)自于拖欠已超過(guò)一年的原有借款人，并非遵循更嚴(yán)格貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的新借款人。預(yù)計(jì)降幅最大的幾個(gè)州將是內(nèi)華達(dá)州、明尼蘇達(dá)州、加州和亞利桑那州。

Buying gets less affordable

????The bust of the housing market five years ago created one of the cheapest times to buy. Across many parts of the U.S., even in some of the priciest markets including New York and Honolulu, it has become cheaper to purchase a home than rent, according to Trulia's Rent vs Buy report. Record-low interest rates on mortgages have also made buying more affordable.

????That's changing, however. In 2012, prices hit bottom. Finally! While that tells us the market is healing, it could also mean buying will be less affordable in 2013. Asking prices for homes for sale rose 3.8% in November from a year earlier -- one of the biggest gains since the housing market crashed in 2007. While rents nationwide are still rising faster than home prices, the trend has reversed in 14 of Trulia's 25 biggest rental markets including Denver, Seattle and San Francisco.

Watch for rising jobs, not rising prices

????Most of us watched home prices to gauge the health of the housing market. That was so 2012, however. Just because prices are rising doesn't necessarily mean the industry is doing any better. Next year, a better pulse of the market will be the rate of jobs growth, says Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia.

????Cities like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix have seen home prices surge, but it's uncertain how long that could last. Prices have risen, partly because they fell so much and also because many homes are still undergoing the foreclosure process. They're also cities in states with some of the highest rates of unemployment, which ties closely to how well people will be positioned to buy.

????For 2013, Kolko has spotted 10 cities where he thinks the market will be healthiest. CongratsTexas, you make up the bulk of them!

Delinquencies fall (very slowly)

????The troubled housing market was marked by record foreclosures, which is why economists closely watch the rate at which homeowners are late on their payments -- they're a precursor to foreclosures. Nationwide, the delinquency rate on mortgages peaked during the last three months of 2009 at 6.89%, after rising 12 quarters in a row from 1.49% in 2006.

????As of the latest quarter, the delinquency rate dropped to 5.41%. And for 2013, it's expected to continue dropping -- albeit, slowly to around 2%. Much of the late payments are made up of existing borrowers more than a year late on their payments, as opposed to new borrowers following stricter lending standards. Some of the biggest declines are expected in Nevada, Minnesota, California and Arizona.