????當前的普遍看法是，美國財政懸崖是阻礙美國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要因素。但財政僵局的影響可能并沒有像人們想象的那樣嚴重。事實上，它們可能還對美國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生了有益的推動。

????上周五，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）首席財務官蒂姆?斯隆稱，包含增稅減支的所謂“財政懸崖”迫近，對公司業(yè)務是件好事；財政懸崖本應于1月1日啟動，在最后一刻達成的一項協(xié)議使它部分得以避免。斯隆說，第四季度富國銀行的貸款顯現(xiàn)加速，尤其是12月份，部分原因正是因為財政懸崖。搶在加稅前，提前派息或交易的公司紛紛增加了借款。

????“財政懸崖事實上對我們的業(yè)務產(chǎn)生了積極的影響，”上周五斯隆對分析師們稱。

????不光富國銀行是這樣。年底，投資銀行家和律師們也比往年更為繁忙，搶在財政懸崖大限前完成交易。而且，除了華爾街，這些交易也給企業(yè)帶來了好處。迪士尼（Disney）已經(jīng)表態(tài)，計劃增加盧卡斯影業(yè)（LucasFilms）的開支。去年10月底，迪士尼以40億美元的價格收購了盧卡斯影業(yè)。但它其實只是眾多受財政懸崖推動的交易之一。

????或許有人會說，這些交易本來就會發(fā)生，只是可能時間是在幾個月之后。所以，財政懸崖所做的只是導致這些交易提前了。但經(jīng)濟刺激政策起到的效果往往也是如此。我們無從判斷，如果沒有財政懸崖，這些交易到底是否會發(fā)生。

????美國政府也會受益。Costco等很多公司都在2012年底提前支付了特別股息。雖然這些交易的本意是為了避免未來稅負的上升，客觀上仍能增加當前的稅收，或許有助于減小赤字缺口。

????至少鮮有跡象顯示“財政懸崖導致經(jīng)濟放緩”，雖然很多人曾經(jīng)這樣預測。2012年12月，美國企業(yè)增加用工超過150,000人，與近月來的增速差不多。但12月份的工作小時數(shù)增加了，這是一段時間以來該指標首次與薪水同步上升。它說明12月份企業(yè)活動增加了，而不是放緩了。

????唯一的一個可能說明“財政懸崖導致經(jīng)濟放緩”的指標是第四季度企業(yè)投資呈現(xiàn)下降。但這已是該指數(shù)連續(xù)第三個季度下行。因此，它似乎更大程度上是原有趨勢的延續(xù)。原因可能是因為歐債問題，可能是因為擔心中國經(jīng)濟硬著陸，但是與財政懸崖并無干系。

????結(jié)論是財政懸崖很可能沒有像華爾街人士擔心的那樣糟糕。還記得嗎，2011年夏天的時候，所有人都在說債務上限僵局是一場災難？回顧看來，情況并沒那么嚴重。自那以來，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)已經(jīng)上漲了約2,500點。目前利率仍處于低位。而且，復蘇正在緩慢發(fā)生。我們或許無需對當前的債務上限僵局那么擔心。當然，世事難料，一切皆有可能。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：早稻米

????It's conventional wisdom these days that Washington gridlock is the main thing holding back the economy. But the fiscal standoffs may not be as much of a headwind as people think. In fact, they might be good for the economy.

????On Friday, Wells Fargo's CFO Tim Sloan said that the so-called fiscal cliff, the mix of tax increases and spending cuts that were set to kick in January 1st but were partially averted in a last minute deal, was good for business. He said lending at the bank (WFC) picked up in the fourth quarter, particular in December, in part because of the fiscal cliff. Companies looking to pay out dividends early or do deals ahead of the planned tax increases borrowed money to do so.

????"The fiscal cliff actually had a positive effect on our business," Sloan told analysts on Friday.

????Wells was not alone. Investment bankers and lawyers were busier than usual at the end of the year, completing deals ahead of fiscal cliff deadline. And not all of those deals just mean more money for Wall Street. Disney (DIS) says it plans to beef up spending at LucasFilms, which it bought in late October for $4 billion -- one of the many deals that appear to have been pushed by the fiscal cliff.

????Some would argue that these deals would've happened anyway, just a few months later. So really all the fiscal cliff did was pull some activity forward. But that's what stimulus always does. It's impossible to know that all of these deals would have happened without the cliff drama.

????The government will benefit as well. A number of companies, Costco (COST) included, paid out special dividends at the end of 2012. And while those deals may have been done to avoid higher taxes in the future, they are still going to generate more tax revenue now, which could help to narrow the deficit.

????At the very least, there seems to be little indication that the fiscal cliff slowed the economy, as many predicted it would. Companies added just over 150,000 workers to their payrolls in December, which is about the pace of growth we have been on for months. But hours worked was up in December, and for the first time in a while pay was up as well. That suggests that companies were ramping up their activities in December, not slowing down.

????The one sign that the fiscal cliff might have slowed the economy came from business investment, which was down in the fourth quarter. But it was down in the third quarter as well. So that seems more like the continuation of a trend, perhaps inspired by debt problems in Europe or fears of a hard landing in China, rather than fiscal cliff-related.

????The takeaway is that Washington acrimony is most likely not nearly the negative that people on Wall Street think it is. Remember how everyone said the debt ceiling standoff back in the summer of 2011 was such a disaster? In retrospect, not so much. The Dow Jones industrial average is up about 2,500 points since then. Interest rates are still low. And the recovery is, slowly, still happening. So perhaps we shouldn't be as worried about the current debt ceiling standoff. Although, of course, you never know.