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蘋果面臨重蹈覆轍的風險

蘋果面臨重蹈覆轍的風險

Cyrus Sanati 2013-01-23
眼下,蘋果iPhone 5銷售疲軟的論調(diào)甚囂塵上,蘋果股價也因此遭受重創(chuàng)。但分析人士認為,這還不是蘋果面臨的最大威脅。他們認為,如果不采取激進的措施,蘋果很可能重蹈上世紀80年代的覆轍,陷入發(fā)展的危機。個中緣由如何?

????或許iPhone手機需求疲軟僅僅是一種表面癥狀。最近幾天,關于低價iPhone手機的種種傳聞其實掩蓋了這家全球最具影響力的電子設備制造商所面臨的更嚴重的問題:讓開發(fā)者和外圍設備制造商與它的合作愈加困難,蘋果(Apple)似乎正在走回二十年前的老路。與此同時,蘋果對其產(chǎn)品依然采取高定價策略,影響了它的產(chǎn)品在發(fā)展中市場的銷售表現(xiàn)。蘋果要想保持市場領先地位,首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克必須盡快放手。

????幾乎所有大型科技公司都會到拉斯維加斯參加消費電子產(chǎn)品展(Consumer Electronics Show),這已經(jīng)成為一種潮流。當然,蘋果除外。過去二十年中,蘋果從未參加過大型展會,而是會出席MacWorld大會。不過,如今連MacWorld也看不到蘋果的影子了,它更愿意根據(jù)自己的安排發(fā)布新產(chǎn)品。iPhone熱潮如火如荼的時候,蘋果保持超然的姿態(tài),自然是無可厚非。畢竟iPhone確實是一款革命性的產(chǎn)品,能夠帶來巨大的利潤。而且iTunes音樂和娛樂門戶網(wǎng)站也成為蘋果的搖錢樹,最終不僅使唱片公司接受了數(shù)字音樂空間,而且第一次為消費者提供了一種簡單、方便的購買數(shù)字媒體的方式。而隨著“應用程序”的出現(xiàn),蘋果再次創(chuàng)建了一個完整的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。

????通過對iTunes和應用商店網(wǎng)站的控制,蘋果將這個全新的移動世界掌控在自己手中。它利用這種控制,按照自己的意愿塑造這個市場,迫使開發(fā)商和外圍設備制造商迎合公司的所有需求。如果你希望在蘋果應用商店中推出自己的應用程序,或者希望在iTunes中推出自己的歌曲,就必須經(jīng)過一個漫長繁瑣的過程,等待蘋果總部確認你的作品是否符合它所有的標準。蘋果對收費電子移動下載空間的掌控帶來了巨大的利潤。去年,公司的現(xiàn)金余額創(chuàng)紀錄的達到約1,000億美元。面對巨額利潤,蘋果甚至都不知該如何來處理這些錢。

????不過,如果你認為蘋果能繼續(xù)支配不斷壯大的智能手機市場,那就太天真了。它在智能手機市場的份額已經(jīng)從去年年初的23%減少到第三季度的14.6%。本周,有消息稱iPhone 5顯示屏訂單比原定數(shù)量減少了一半,表明銷售狀況不佳。結果,蘋果公司股票大幅跳水,跌至11個月來的最低點。報告來源于負責為蘋果組裝iPhone手機的亞洲地區(qū)。(對此蘋果沒有發(fā)表評論。)

????當然,蘋果肯定不會破產(chǎn),而且iPhone 5的表現(xiàn)不可謂不成功——在上市銷售前24個小時便售出200萬臺,創(chuàng)下歷史記錄。但iPhone最近乏善可陳的表現(xiàn),以及關于需求疲軟的傳聞,讓過去幾年豪賭蘋果的投資者不由得開始擔憂。

????Potentially weak iPhone demand is just a symptom. The backand forth in recent days about a cheaper iPhone belies what may be a much larger problem for the world's dominant gadget maker: Apple seems to be repeating a mistake it made nearly two decades ago by making it difficult for developers and peripheral makers to work with the company. At the same time, Apple is maintaining a premium price for its products, hurting adoption in developing markets. A radical departure by chief executive Tim Cook is needed fast if Apple is going to stay on top.

????All the big names in tech were at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in some fashion—except, of course, for Apple (AAPL). For the past two decades, it has eschewed the mega conference, participating in MacWorld instead. Now, Apple isn't even showing up at MacWorld, preferring to unveil its new products on its own schedule. At the height of the iPhone craze a few years ago it was understandable that Apple could get away with maintaining such an aloof stance. The iPhone was truly a revolutionary product with massive margins. Apple's iTunes music and entertainment portal was a cash cow, finally bringing the record companies to terms with the digital music space and giving consumers a simple and easy way to purchase digital media for the first time. And with the advent of "apps," Apple once again created an entire ecosystem.

????Apple's control of the iTunes and app store portals gave it total control over this new mobile world. It used that control to shape the market in its image, forcing developers and peripheral makers to jump and bend to the company's every desire. If you wanted your application in Apple's App Store or if you wanted your song on iTunes, you had to go through a long and laborious process with Apple HQ to make sure everything was up to their standards. Apple's domination of the paid electronic mobile download space translated into mega profits, which last year culminated in the company posting a cash balance of around $100 billion. Apple was making so much money it literally had no idea what to do with it.

????But it is naive to think that Apple could continue to dominate the growing market for smartphones. The company has seen its market share in the smartphone space fall from 23% at the start of last year to 14.6% by the third quarter. Apple's stock took a major dive this week, falling at one point to an 11-month low, on reports that orders for its iPhone 5 display had been cut in half from previously planned levels, noting that sales have not been up to snuff. The reports came out of Asia where Apple's iPhone is assembled. (Apple did not respond to request for comment for this story.)

????To be sure, Apple isn't going bankrupt and the iPhone 5 isn't a dud—it sold a record 2 million copies in the first 24 hours it went on sale. But the iPhone's recently lackluster track record, combined with this talk of weak demand, is of major concern to investors who have bet big on Apple in the last few years.

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