????不出意外，Canalys的報(bào)告引起了很大的關(guān)注，也引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)熱議。《時(shí)代》周刊（Time ）編輯哈里?麥克拉肯借機(jī)發(fā)起了投票，調(diào)查讀者的想法。他還附上了自己的分析，認(rèn)為一臺(tái)設(shè)備如果符合下述條件，就可以稱為PC：第一，它能運(yùn)行應(yīng)用程序；第二，它具備多種用途（而不是像游戲機(jī)這樣的專用機(jī)器）；第三，它適合個(gè)人使用。

????他接著做出了大膽的假設(shè)，說(shuō)PC可以是“任何尺寸”，也就是說(shuō)智能手機(jī)也可以算作PC的一種。但是這個(gè)假設(shè)扭曲了市場(chǎng)。原因很簡(jiǎn)單，那就是大多數(shù)智能手機(jī)用戶同時(shí)也擁有PC或者平板電腦。同樣，有些人買了PC之后也還是會(huì)買平板電腦，還有些人PC用舊了也不去換新的，而是去買平板電腦。我們還需要進(jìn)行?；治觯＞褪侵敢恍﹤€(gè)體通過(guò)不分明關(guān)系、相似關(guān)系、鄰近關(guān)系或功能關(guān)系等所形成的塊。這種處理信息的過(guò)程．稱信息粒化?！g注），以了解平板電腦和手機(jī)究竟是以何種方式、在何種程度上擠占傳統(tǒng)PC的市場(chǎng)，以及有多少人會(huì)購(gòu)買這類設(shè)備來(lái)補(bǔ)充PC的局限。（蘋果機(jī)當(dāng)然也是PC的一種，除非有什么前提可以明確表明它們與Windows系統(tǒng)的機(jī)器有所不同。）

????自從Canalys的報(bào)告發(fā)布后，人們對(duì)PC的概念更加困惑了。一方面是因?yàn)椴煌难芯咳藛T對(duì)市場(chǎng)的定義不同，另一方面是因?yàn)镻C和平板電腦的區(qū)別在迅速縮小。這種概念上的含混不清使我們難以估測(cè)各種各樣的市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)。美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）今年1月發(fā)布的搜索引擎使用報(bào)告只有唯一的一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源，那就是（傳統(tǒng)）PC，因?yàn)闊o(wú)法獲取移動(dòng)設(shè)備搜索引擎的參照數(shù)據(jù)。如果不把移動(dòng)設(shè)備的數(shù)據(jù)算進(jìn)去，就算得出結(jié)論，宣稱今年1月四大搜索引擎——谷歌（Google）、必應(yīng)（Bing）、雅虎（Yahoo）和Ask——的搜索數(shù)量同比增長(zhǎng)了9%，又有什么意義呢？“不幸的是，我們沒(méi)有移動(dòng)設(shè)備的搜索數(shù)據(jù)，無(wú)法反映搜索數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)的全景?！泵楞y在注解中解釋。于是，這份報(bào)告附帶地提到了一個(gè)事實(shí)：據(jù)一些搜索引擎廣告商估計(jì)，移動(dòng)設(shè)備的搜索數(shù)量約占搜索總量的15%。

????有效區(qū)分PC和移動(dòng)設(shè)備對(duì)于分析其他配套行業(yè)也很重要。移動(dòng)設(shè)備的芯片市場(chǎng)和PC的芯片市場(chǎng)區(qū)別很大。晨星公司（Morningstar）這個(gè)月發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告表明，芯片制造商AMD最近之所以麻煩纏身，部分原因在于“平板電腦迅速普及”帶來(lái)的困境。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶，在PC臺(tái)式機(jī)市場(chǎng)占據(jù)統(tǒng)治地位的英特爾（Intel），為了在移動(dòng)設(shè)備的芯片市場(chǎng)做出一番業(yè)績(jī)，也面臨著日益沉重的壓力。

????但是如果我們把這些錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的要素一概剔除，縱觀市場(chǎng)全局，那么市場(chǎng)的趨勢(shì)就顯而易見(jiàn)了：兩年前，iPad問(wèn)世。在此之前的五年時(shí)間里，傳統(tǒng)PC和筆記本的年銷量增長(zhǎng)在5%和15%之間，具體的增長(zhǎng)率取決于年份和數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源。去年，傳統(tǒng)PC和筆記本的銷量下跌了5%，預(yù)計(jì)明年還會(huì)有類似幅度的下跌。2012年全年的節(jié)假旺季，盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)在復(fù)蘇，PC的銷量依然同比下跌了6%到10%（具體跌幅還是取決于大家各自采信的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源）。同一時(shí)期，平板電腦的銷量暴漲了60%到80%。很多人開始購(gòu)買平板電腦，而對(duì)傳統(tǒng)PC棄之不顧。

????這個(gè)趨勢(shì)還會(huì)繼續(xù)下去。接下來(lái)的幾個(gè)月，更強(qiáng)大的滑蓋式、翻轉(zhuǎn)式平板電腦將陸續(xù)上市。顯然，不出幾年，平板電腦和PC之間的區(qū)別將變得微乎其微，至少在消費(fèi)者的眼中是如此。當(dāng)然，傳統(tǒng)PC也還是會(huì)有市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)槿藗冃枰盟瓿商囟ǖ挠?jì)算任務(wù)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????Not surprisingly, the Canalys report got lots of attention and stirred much debate. Harry McCracken of Time magazine took the opportunity to poll his readers to find out what they thought. He added his own analysis and decided that a device is a PC if it meets the following criteria: It run apps; it is general-purpose (and not meant for singular uses, like a game console); it is meant to be used by one person at a time.

????He then took a leap and said a PC can be "any size," meaning smartphones can count. But that assumption distorts the market for the simple reason that most people who own smartphones also own a PC or a tablet. Similarly, there are those who buy a tablet in addition to a PC, and others who buy them instead of a new PC. Granular analyses are needed to get a full handle on how and to what degree both tablets and phones are supplanting what most people think of as traditional PCs, and to what degree such devices are purchased as supplements to PCs. (Macs of course are included in the definition of PC, unless it's clear from context that they're being differentiated from machines running Windows.)

????Since the Canalys report was issued, the confusion has only deepened both because researchers define the market differently and because the gulf between PCs and tablets is quickly narrowing. That confusion sometimes makes it hard to measure various market trends. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report on search-engine use in January had to rely on numbers solely from (traditional) PCs because comparable data on mobile searches wasn't available. Is it even meaningful to note that searches on the four major search services -- Google (GOOG), Bing (MSFT), Yahoo (YHOO), and Ask -- rose by 9% in January from the previous year, when mobile data isn't included? "Unfortunately we do not have mobile query data to see the full picture for query growth," BofA's note read. So the report threw in the fact that some search advertisers estimated that mobile searches made up about 15% of the total.

????The distinction between PCs and mobile devices remains important for analyzing other allied industries as well. The market for chips that run mobile devices is quite different from the market for chips that run PCs. A Morningstar report this month noted that chipmaker AMD's (AMD) recent troubles are in part due to the "headwinds" it faces thanks to "rapid tablet adoption." Meanwhile, Intel (INTC), which is dominant in desktop PCs, is coming under increasing pressure to show results in its mobile chip sales.

????But when looking at the market as a whole, sans all these complicating factors, the trend is clear: Over the five years leading up to the release of the iPad two years ago, sales of traditional PCs and laptops grew anywhere between 5% and 15% a year, depending on the year and data source. Last year, sales declined about 5%, and a similar decline is forecast for next year. Over the 2012 holiday gift season, PC sales declined by between 6% and 10% over the previous year (again, depending on whose data you believe), even as the economy was recovering. Tablet sales leaped by between 60% and 80% during the season. Lots of people are buying tablets and forgoing traditional PCs.

????That trend will continue. Over the coming months, more-powerful hybrid and convertible tablets will be coming on the market, and it seems clear that in just a few years time the differences between tablets and PCs will be negligible, at least from a consumer's point of view, though there will still be a market for traditional PCs for certain computing tasks.