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全球變暖有望打通北極新航道

全球變暖有望打通北極新航道

Jennifer Abbasi 2013-03-15
氣候變暖也不是一無(wú)是處。隨著北極地區(qū)的海冰消融,貫穿加拿大北極群島的西北航道將成為一條可行的商業(yè)航道,更多的船只將有望徑直穿越北極,用更短地時(shí)間往返歐洲,同時(shí)擺脫俄羅斯的盤剝。但環(huán)境和安全問(wèn)題也將隨之而來(lái)。

????全球氣候變暖的烏云背后其實(shí)也透著一線光芒——地理學(xué)家們預(yù)測(cè),到本世紀(jì)中葉,融化的海冰將在北極開(kāi)辟新的商業(yè)航線。它將大大縮短船只在夏末的航行時(shí)間,還將削弱俄羅斯對(duì)橫跨北極航運(yùn)的控制。破冰船將破天荒地徑直穿越北極,貫穿加拿大北極群島的那條危機(jī)四伏、但令人垂涎欲滴的西北航道(NWP)終于有望成為一條可行的商業(yè)航線。

????美國(guó)加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(UCLA)的勞倫斯?C?史密斯和斯科特?R?斯蒂芬森在《美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)院院刊》(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)上發(fā)布了這項(xiàng)研究成果。這兩位學(xué)者運(yùn)用計(jì)算機(jī)模型,根據(jù)7項(xiàng)獨(dú)立的氣候模型,對(duì)本世紀(jì)中葉(2040-2059) 北大西洋和白令海峽之間的最優(yōu)航運(yùn)路線進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。他們把研究限定在北極冰處于最低值的9月份。下面是他們的發(fā)現(xiàn):

????? 北冰洋東部沿俄羅斯海岸的北海航線(NSR)——目前唯一可行的橫跨北極航線——將變得更加通暢。北海線路將向更多普通的、無(wú)加固船體的開(kāi)放水域船只(目前使用的絕大多數(shù)運(yùn)輸船都是這種)開(kāi)放,起航自北大西洋的最佳航線將由俄羅斯海岸向北轉(zhuǎn)移,進(jìn)而脫離它的領(lǐng)土管轄范圍。

????? 如今散落著約5萬(wàn)座高達(dá)300英尺巨型冰山的西北航道(NWP)將就此打開(kāi)。相比于北海航線,往返北美的航程將減少30%。對(duì)于極地6級(jí)船只(Polar Class 6,波羅的海國(guó)家現(xiàn)在使用的輕量級(jí)破冰船)來(lái)說(shuō),它將成為夏末全天候通暢的最優(yōu)航線,普通的開(kāi)放水域船只在相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)也可以在這條航線上通行?!斑@的確令人稱奇,因?yàn)槲鞅焙降赖目珊叫卸纫恢辈蝗绫焙:骄€,冰封程度也遠(yuǎn)大于后者,”史密斯說(shuō)?!斑@是一個(gè)非常難以駕馭的地方?!蔽鞅焙降赖拈_(kāi)放或?qū)⑵仁辜幽么蟆⒚绹?guó)和歐洲著手解決這條貿(mào)易路線究竟是位于加拿大水域,還是位于國(guó)際水域這個(gè)爭(zhēng)執(zhí)已久的問(wèn)題。

????? 隨著冰層變薄,北極將成為往返歐洲的破冰船的最優(yōu)航線,可能會(huì)吸引一些北海航線的船只。到本世紀(jì)中葉,極地6級(jí)船只“幾乎可以去任何一個(gè)它們想去的北極地區(qū),”史密斯說(shuō)。“屆時(shí),如果打算在大西洋和太平洋之間航行,最短的路線就是直接穿越北極?!?/p>

????盡管目前還無(wú)法搞清楚所有這一切具有的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義,但隨著冰層退去,北極地區(qū)的航運(yùn)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始升溫。2010年夏,冰層變得足夠薄的時(shí)候,有幾艘運(yùn)輸船只首次通過(guò)了北海航線。去年夏天,46艘運(yùn)送石油、天然氣和硬礦石的船只曾經(jīng)從俄羅斯、挪威和丹麥經(jīng)由這條航線駛往中國(guó),阿拉斯加費(fèi)爾班克斯大學(xué)(University of Alaska Fairbanks)地理和北極政策教授勞森?布里格姆說(shuō)。

????Call it a silver lining: Geographers are predicting that by mid-century, melting sea ice will open up new commercial shipping routes in the Arctic. That would shave off costly travel time in the late summer and reduce Russia's control over trans-Arctic shipping. For the first time, icebreakers will be able to make a straight shot over the North Pole, and the treacherous but coveted Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic Archipelago will become a viable commercial route.

????UCLA's Laurence C. Smith and Scott R. Stephenson reported the findings on what they're calling "Supra-Polar" routes Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The pair used computer modeling to predict optimal navigation routes for mid-century (2040-2059) between the North Atlantic and the Bering Straight based on seven independent climate models. They restricted their study to September, when Arctic ice is at its minimum. What they found:

????? The Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Russia's coast in the eastern Arctic Ocean -- the only viable trans-Arctic shipping route today -- will continue to become more navigable. The NSR will open up to more ordinary open-water ships without reinforced hulls (the vast majority of shipping vessels in use today), and optimal routes from the North Atlantic will shift northward away from Russia's coast and out of its territorial jurisdiction.

????? The Northwest Passage (NWP), which today is littered with some 50,000 giant icebergs up to 300 feet tall, will open, reducing by 30% the distance for vessels traveling to and from North America compared with the NSR. It will be the optimal late-summer route for Polar Class 6 vessels (lightweight icebreakers used in the Baltic states today) 100% of the time and for ordinary open-water ships much of the time. "This is a surprise because the NWP has always been less navigable and more icy than the NSR," Smith says. "It's a very stubborn place." The opening up of the NWP may force Canada, the U.S. and Europe to settle a longstanding dispute over whether the trade route is in Canadian or international waters.

????? The North Pole will become the optimal route for ice-breaking ships traveling to and from Europe as the ice thins, which could pull traffic away from the NSR. Polar Class 6 vessels will "pretty much go wherever they please" in the Arctic by mid-century, Smith says. "At which point, if you're trying to get between the Atlantic and the Pacific, the shortest route is directly over the North Pole."

????Although it's too soon to know what all this means in economic terms, shipping is already ramping up in the Arctic as ice retreats. A handful of shipping vessels first navigated the NSR in 2010, when the summer ice thinned sufficiently there. Last summer, 46 ships carried oil, gas, and hard minerals from Russia, Norway, and Denmark to China, says Lawson Brigham, a professor of geography and Arctic policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

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