????? 盡管塞浦路斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模還不到歐元區(qū)17國(guó)的0.5%，但歐盟官員非常愿意砸錢(qián)來(lái)限制這個(gè)問(wèn)題所產(chǎn)生的影響。希臘和葡萄牙的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，即使很小的經(jīng)濟(jì)體也會(huì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)信心。歐盟官員最大的動(dòng)力仍是他們自己的工作——他們將繼續(xù)通過(guò)“援助”這種權(quán)宜之計(jì)來(lái)徹底消除人們對(duì)危機(jī)擴(kuò)散的擔(dān)心。

????? 許多人認(rèn)為，塞浦路斯是歐元區(qū)的一大漏洞，允許這樣的國(guó)家加入歐元區(qū)首先就是個(gè)重大失誤。我們預(yù)計(jì)他們的應(yīng)對(duì)措施依然是用錢(qián)來(lái)解決問(wèn)題，而他們的初步行動(dòng)將是啟動(dòng)銀行業(yè)改革，以此遏制腐敗。

????? 俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京已對(duì)存款稅提出批評(píng)。他說(shuō)，一旦落實(shí)，它將是一個(gè)不公平、不專(zhuān)業(yè)而且危險(xiǎn)的決定。也許普京在塞浦路斯也有存款？塞浦路斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模約為240億歐元（1,932億元人民幣），而俄羅斯放在塞浦路斯的資金估計(jì)為600億歐元（4,830億元人民幣）左右。因此，俄羅斯人撤資及其對(duì)塞浦路斯銀行業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面沖擊著實(shí)令人擔(dān)心。這也進(jìn)一步表明，塞政府必須對(duì)存款采取限制措施，以防資金外逃。

????雖然我們認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)將很快擺脫塞浦路斯問(wèn)題的影響，但它和意大利選舉為打壓歐元提供了很好的武器。

????市場(chǎng)再也經(jīng)受不起新一輪重大危機(jī)的干擾?。ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????? Even with an economy the size of less than one half a percent of the 17-nation Eurozone, Eurocrats are incentivized to throw money at the problem to limit fall out. The experience of Greece and Portugal in particular shows that even puny economies can impact economic sentiment. Eurocrats' biggest incentive remains their own jobs -- they'll continue to squash any fears of contagion with bailout band-aids.

????? Cyprus represents, to many, a huge flaw in the Eurozone system – allowing countries like Cyprus to enter the Eurozone in the first place. Again we expect the play from them to be throwing good money at bad, with initial attempts of setting forth banking reforms to limit corruption.

????? Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the levy saying that the decision, should it be made, would be unfair, unprofessional and dangerous. Maybe Putin has some money in Cyprus too?? It is estimated that Russia has ~ €60B of total exposure to Cyprus on a ~€24B economy. So there's a real fear of Russians pulling their money and the negative windfall it would have on the banking system and economy. This further suggests that restrictive measures will have to be placed on deposits to prevent flight.

????While we think the market will move past Cyprus over the short term, this event along with the Italian elections provide good ammo to put pressure on the euro.

????Nothing like another good crisis to stir up the markets!