中國高鐵擴建誰買單?
????中國規(guī)模巨大的鐵路擴建活動有利于推動經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,但為此要背上4,200億美元的債務負擔就不妙了。3月10日,中國官方宣布分拆鐵道部(Ministry of Railways),轉而組建一個全新的鐵路公司。人們對此期待已久,同時這也是中國鐵路事業(yè)轉變發(fā)展軌跡的良好契機。 ????在2010-2015年間,中國計劃將鐵路運營里程翻上一番,達到12萬公里,期間預計每年將耗資1,000億美元。這個投資是值得的。高鐵不僅舒適快捷,信譽良好,碳排放量低,還是實現(xiàn)更高水平城市化的必由之路。世界銀行(World Bank)近期發(fā)布的一份報告稱,綜合計算下來,高鐵不僅給乘客節(jié)省了時間,降低了運營成本,并且也使城市交通更便捷。 ????但中國高鐵的融資卻一直是本糊涂賬,各類項目完全依靠國有銀行貸款及自行發(fā)債支撐,而債券多數(shù)又由銀行買入。高鐵因此債務累累,按6%的理論年利率計算,每年光利息就高達250億美元。從乘客身上賺回這筆成本是指望不上的。 ????但現(xiàn)在設法扭轉局面還為時不晚。首先就是要承認,政府必須承擔一部分債務。瑞典和日本這樣成功的高鐵網(wǎng)絡也離不開政府補貼和資助。把中國高鐵的巨額債務直接轉為國債合情合理,而且新成立的中國鐵路總公司(China Rail Corp)也無須償還這筆債務。 ????接下來就是未來的投資問題。在這個問題上,可以把成本和收益掛鉤。中國可以向香港地鐵公司學習。香港地鐵系統(tǒng)通過政府給予土地出讓許可,從而獲得了部分融資。它的機制是,新開通的線路推高地價后,公交運營方可以開發(fā)或銷售相關地塊,或者用它來抵押貸款。香港地鐵公司(MTR)2000年上市時,總資產(chǎn)的15%是地產(chǎn)——到了2012年6月,這個比例已經(jīng)上升到了32%。 ????此外,融資還應該來自于高鐵建設最大的受益方:重工業(yè)企業(yè)。因為高鐵從低速線路上轉移了大量乘客,解決了長期存在的貨物超載問題。自1990年以來,中國的鐵路貨運量翻了三倍,其中多達40%的貨物都是煤炭。如果讓這類用戶——主要是各類國企——為高鐵合理分擔建設成本,中國鐵路就不至于因為資金困局關門大吉。(財富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:清遠 |
????China's massive rail expansion is good for the economy. Burying it under $420 billion of debt isn't. The long awaited dismantling of China's sprawling Ministry of Railways and creation of a new rail company, announced on March 10, is a good moment to change track. ????A grand plan to double track length to 120,000 kilometres between 2010 and 2015 is likely to cost over $100 billion a year. It's worth it. As well as comfort, prestige and low emissions, rail is the ticket to better urbanization. A recent World Bank report calculated that the benefits to a city of better connectivity from high-speed rail could be almost as large as those from saving passengers time and operating costs. ????The funding, though, has been pure folly. Projects depend on borrowing from Chinese state banks and issuing bonds -- which in turn are mostly bought by the banks. The resulting debt, on a notional 6% interest rate, would require $25 billion a year of interest payments. Passengers aren't rich enough to cover that cost. ????It's not too late to turn things around. The first step is to admit that the government must pay a share. Even successful rail networks like Sweden's and Japan's have depended on subsidies and bailouts. It would make sense to turn a chunk of rail-related borrowing into straight sovereign debt, and relieve the newly created China Rail Corp of having to repay it. ????Then there's future investment. Here, it makes sense to link costs to benefits. China could learn from Hong Kong's mass transit system, which is funded partly through government grants of land. New lines boost land prices, which the operator can either develop and sell, or use as collateral for loans. When Hong Kong's MTR listed in 2000, property made up 15% of its total assets -- by June 2012, it was 32%. ????Finally, funding could come from those who benefit most: heavy industrial companies. Shifting passengers off low-speed lines will relieve chronic overloading. Freight traffic has tripled since 1990, and as much as 40% of what rides on the rails is coal. Charge users -- notably state-owned enterprises -- their fair share, and China's railways don't have to end in financial wreckage. |