????上周末，北京冷的出奇，寒意堪比達(dá)沃斯。很多知名人物參加了僅對(duì)受邀人員開放的中國(guó)發(fā)展高層論壇（China Development Forum），此前他們也在1月份受邀參加了冬季達(dá)沃斯年會(huì)。中國(guó)發(fā)展高層論壇在滿是亭臺(tái)水榭的釣魚臺(tái)國(guó)賓館（the Diaoyutai State Guesthous， 周圍由覆蓋著琉璃瓦片的高墻所環(huán)繞）舉辦。此次論壇成為財(cái)富500強(qiáng)企業(yè)高管與諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主及中國(guó)政府高官交流的盛會(huì)。中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)也將出席該論壇在人民大會(huì)堂舉行的閉幕會(huì)議。與會(huì)期間，嘉賓們相互交換名片，探討當(dāng)今最引人注目的話題：中國(guó)將何去何從？

????多位發(fā)言人在開場(chǎng)白中提到了他們?cè)鴧⒓舆^(guò)多少屆論壇。這個(gè)數(shù)字通常高達(dá)兩位數(shù)。他們的講話透露出對(duì)聚會(huì)上空談的厭倦以及對(duì)付諸行動(dòng)的渴望。

????中國(guó)現(xiàn)在仍然是一個(gè)奇跡，這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年，中國(guó)這個(gè)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增速達(dá)到了7.8%，而世界經(jīng)濟(jì)（不含中國(guó)）的增長(zhǎng)率僅為2.4%——接近但還沒有達(dá)到非官方的衰退分水嶺。（這一點(diǎn)要感謝中國(guó)。）此前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)達(dá)20年的兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)讓5億人擺脫了貧困，但近些年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速屢屢讓人失望，2012年也不例外。中國(guó)尚未從2008-2009年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)（歡迎中國(guó)與大家風(fēng)雨同舟）。中國(guó)必須著手解決它在這輪經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中所暴露出來(lái)的問(wèn)題。

????中國(guó)面臨的令人擔(dān)憂的趨勢(shì)包括：過(guò)度依賴制造業(yè)和出口，這讓中國(guó)對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑尤為敏感；羸弱的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)；不夠完善的社會(huì)保障體系，這使得廣大中國(guó)職工更愿意去存錢而不愿花錢；當(dāng)然還有污染問(wèn)題、腐敗問(wèn)題、官僚體制僵化問(wèn)題、金融體制未與國(guó)際透明度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)接軌的問(wèn)題以及貧富差距不斷擴(kuò)大的問(wèn)題。

????連續(xù)第十四次參加這個(gè)論壇的耶魯大學(xué)（Yale）高級(jí)研究員史蒂芬?羅奇在圍繞經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的分組討論會(huì)上說(shuō)：“改革這個(gè)詞大家經(jīng)常提到。尤其對(duì)于中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，改革一個(gè)非常重要的詞，因?yàn)樗呀?jīng)成為了一種特別的傳承，這個(gè)承諾始于上世紀(jì)70年代末鄧小平倡導(dǎo)的改革開放。”羅奇還說(shuō)，改革“要有目標(biāo)性，要果敢，而且必須針對(duì)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)體的具體需求，不能為了改革而改革。”

????以習(xí)近平主席和李克強(qiáng)總理為核心的中國(guó)新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子似乎對(duì)未來(lái)將面臨的挑戰(zhàn)抱有務(wù)實(shí)的看法。今年論壇（由中國(guó)政府主辦）的主題仍然略顯呆板——“中國(guó)：改革開放與全面建成小康社會(huì)”。在英文中，小康社會(huì)有時(shí)會(huì)被草草翻譯成同樣呆板的描述，即“a moderately prosperous society”（“中等繁榮的社會(huì)”），但我們倒是可以理解。它符合中國(guó)“十二五”規(guī)劃中的總體目標(biāo)：解決不平等問(wèn)題，包括沿海發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)與內(nèi)陸欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)之間的收入和發(fā)展差距；促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)；改善社會(huì)保障體系；還有，正如同副總理張高麗在會(huì)議第二天透過(guò)翻譯所說(shuō)，要發(fā)揮“市場(chǎng)在資源配置中的基礎(chǔ)性作用，使企業(yè)在公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中優(yōu)勝劣汰，充分激發(fā)市場(chǎng)主體的活力?！?/p>

????It wasn't Davos, quite, but it was awfully cold last weekend in Beijing, and many of the headliners attending the invitation-only China Development Forum (CDF), held among the gardens and waterways (and behind the glass-shard-topped high walls) of the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, have also been invited to the Alps in January. CDF is where Fortune 500 CEOS mingle with Nobel Prize winners and top-level Chinese government officials—including a closing session at the Great Hall of the People with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Together they exchange many, many business cards, and examine the most compelling business topic of our day: Whither China?

????Several speakers began their remarks by noting how many years they've been coming. Often it's double digits, and infusing the mood of the gathering was a certain weariness with talk, coupled with impatience for action.

????China is still a miracle, no one doubts that. The world's second largest economy grew at 7.8% last year, according to the IMF, while the world excluding China grew 2.4%—near but not quite at the unofficial recession threshold. (Thank you, China.) But after two decades of double-digit growth that lifted five hundred million out of poverty, 2012 counts as another in a recent string of disappointments. China has yet to recover from the 2008-2009 global economic collapse (welcome to the club, China), an event which exposed vulnerabilities China must address.

????Among the worrisome trends: China's overreliance on manufacturing and exports, which makes it uniquely sensitive to downturns in the global economy; its anemic service-sector economy; its inadequate social safety net, which forces Chinese workers to save more and spend less; and of course the pollution problem, the corruption problem, the stultifying bureaucracy problem, the problems associated with a financial system that doesn't come close to meeting global standards for transparency, and not least, the growing divide between rich and poor.

????"The word reform gets thrown around a lot," said Yale's Stephen Roach, here for the 14th straight year, in a session on economic reform. "It's a very important word, especially for China, given its extraordinary legacy, beginning with the reforms and opening-up of Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s." But reforms, "must be goal-oriented," Roach continued, "they must be aggressive, and they must be focused on the specific requirements of individual economies. You cannot have reform for the sake of reform."

????China's new leadership under President Xi Jinping and Premier Li seems to have a realistic sense of the challenge that lies ahead. The theme of this year's conference (which is sponsored by the Chinese government) sounds a little stilted—"to Deepen Reform and Opening-up for a Well-off Society," the last part sometimes translated on the fly, equally stilted, as "a moderately prosperous society"— but we understand. It lines up with the broad goals of China's latest five-year plan: to address inequality, both of income, and of development between the overdeveloped coast and the underdeveloped interior; to increase domestic consumption; to strengthen the social safety net; and, as Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said through a translator in his speech on day two, to recognize "the fundamental role of the market in resource allocation so that capable companies can excel in competition and the dynamism of the market can be achieved."