??? 盡管如此，中國(guó)的金融混亂程度可能仍然只有30-40。和1978年相比有了更多的不確定性，但比2007年的美國(guó)安定。這是因?yàn)?，只要政府確實(shí)還能通過(guò)發(fā)行貨幣來(lái)填補(bǔ)壞賬留下的窟窿，金融體系就不太會(huì)受到影響。不得已時(shí)，政府還可以把影子銀行貸款全都買(mǎi)下來(lái)。估計(jì)這些貸款的余額為3.7萬(wàn)億美元。貿(mào)易伙伴和外國(guó)投資者可能會(huì)感到擔(dān)心，還可能出現(xiàn)道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但社會(huì)不會(huì)失控。

????中國(guó)并不能完全抵御對(duì)自身有傷害的恐慌和無(wú)知。環(huán)境惡化可能引發(fā)混亂，腐敗也是如此。無(wú)收益放貸和過(guò)度管制都會(huì)造成人們被迫接受過(guò)多他們不想要的東西，而想要的東西又得到的太少，這就可能對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生不利影響。但只要金融混亂程度仍然較低，即使真的出現(xiàn)信貸危機(jī)，也不一定會(huì)引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????Despite that, China is probably only a 30-40 on the Financial Chaos index -- more uncertain than in 1978, but less than the United States in 2007. That's because as long as the state can credibly bury bad debts with new money, the financial system can remain more or less whole. At a push, the government could buy all outstanding "shadow bank" lending, estimated at $3.7 trillion. Trade partners and foreign investors would worry; moral hazard would result. But there wouldn't be a social collapse.

????China isn't totally immune to self-destructive fear and ignorance. Environmental degradation could provoke chaos; so could corruption. Unproductive lending and too much control could harm the real economy, by giving people too much of what they don't want, and too little of what they do. But provided the level of financial chaos stays low, a credit crisis, even if it does happen, needn't be an economic one.