????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）并非一個(gè)整體，相反，它由兩部分組成。一部分是分析機(jī)構(gòu)，它備受尊重，由頂尖的技術(shù)官僚掌控，工作內(nèi)容是提出世界級(jí)的深刻見(jiàn)解；另一部分是運(yùn)營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)，它的行為前后矛盾，經(jīng)常屈服于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體政治主宰者的壓力之下，因而無(wú)法兌現(xiàn)承諾。

????這兩部分之間的差異從沒(méi)有像今天這樣明顯，由此產(chǎn)生的影響也從沒(méi)有像今天這樣突出。

????IMF成立于1944年，當(dāng)時(shí)的全球環(huán)境和今天大相徑庭。面對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的起起落落，IMF一直都游刃有余。這讓它成為權(quán)力最大、最有能力而且最為重要的國(guó)際性組織。理論上，IMF主要通過(guò)四個(gè)途徑為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)服務(wù)，它們是：對(duì)各個(gè)國(guó)家的內(nèi)部發(fā)展及其對(duì)境外的影響進(jìn)行中立分析，后一項(xiàng)分析很重要；成為探討全球政策并進(jìn)行協(xié)調(diào)的論壇；作為金融方面的首選援助者，為無(wú)法進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)、且往往瀕臨破產(chǎn)的國(guó)家提供緊急貸款；支持成員國(guó)實(shí)施良好的政策，建立良好的程序，采用良好的實(shí)踐方法。

????這四項(xiàng)功能已經(jīng)相當(dāng)了不起。但它們?nèi)晕大w現(xiàn)出IMF順利運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)的整個(gè)覆蓋范圍及其影響。可以看出，在可靠狀態(tài)下，IMF的所有功效都能得到顯著放大。

????IMF貸款可以釋放來(lái)自其他方面的資金。它的分析報(bào)告會(huì)出現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)峰會(huì)上，而且可能影響后者的日程和內(nèi)容。它的技術(shù)援助能釋放各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中未得到充分挖掘的潛能。同時(shí)，作為全球各項(xiàng)政策的指導(dǎo)者，IMF是最好的審查方和權(quán)衡者，包括強(qiáng)化國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在內(nèi)。

????回顧以往，IMF的確時(shí)有過(guò)人表現(xiàn)。它的作用遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)全球知識(shí)領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)機(jī)構(gòu)、緊急資金的供應(yīng)機(jī)構(gòu)以及受到政府信任的顧問(wèn)機(jī)構(gòu)。它還在制度方面為整個(gè)世界指明方向。

????然而，今天的IMF還有相當(dāng)大的一部分潛力沒(méi)有發(fā)揮出來(lái)。正因?yàn)槿绱耍琁MF的作用和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮增長(zhǎng)的要求相比也有相當(dāng)大的差距。它缺乏公信力，它的號(hào)召力正在減弱，它在財(cái)力方面也落后于私營(yíng)資本的增長(zhǎng)速度和波動(dòng)幅度。

????在代表性和合法性方面，IMF也有相當(dāng)大的缺陷。它的管理模式非常陳舊，當(dāng)然無(wú)法體現(xiàn)當(dāng)今全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的特點(diǎn)。在這種情況下，大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為IMF的政策協(xié)調(diào)功能不夠均衡，還有許多人認(rèn)為IMF在這方面毫無(wú)建樹(shù)。它不再具有催化作用，而這種作用對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的良性發(fā)展而言是如此的重要。

????出問(wèn)題的不是IMF的分析功能。在外界看來(lái)，IMF在這方面的工作具有一流水平，其中最具有代表性的就是《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》（World Economic Outlook）報(bào)告。

????作為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和市場(chǎng)參與者，我自己都能證明這一點(diǎn)。對(duì)于IMF的分析結(jié)果、數(shù)據(jù)和深層次見(jiàn)解，人們總是翹首以待——所有這些不僅僅是信息來(lái)源，還影響著人們對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和全球市場(chǎng)的看法。

????The IMF is not one, but rather, two institutions: a highly respected analytical outfit anchored by superb technocrats and delivering world class insights; and an inconsistent operator that frequently falls hostage to pressure from its political masters in advanced

????Never has the contrast been as strong as it is today. And never have the consequences been as material.

????Formed in 1944 under very different global circumstances, the IMF has brilliantly navigated the ebbs and flows of the global economy. In doing so, it has retained its reputation as the most powerful, competent, and relevant of all international institutions.

????On paper, the IMF serves the global economy in four main ways: It provides unbiased analysis that covers not just national developments, but also, and importantly, their cross-border effects; it is a forum for global policy discussions and coordination; it is a financial first responder, providing emergency loans to countries shut out of markets and often on the verge of collapse; and it supports its member countries' implementation of sound policies and establishment of sound processes and practices.

????This is quite an impressive list already. Yet it does not give justice to the full scope and impact of a well-functioning IMF. You see, a credible IMF translates into an institution that is able to significantly leverage everything it does.

????IMF loans can unlock funding from other sources. Its analysis feeds into economic summits, potentially influencing the agenda and the narrative. Its technical assistance can unleash the underutilized potential of domestic economies. And, in its role as a conductor of policies around the world, it can be the best source of checks and balances, including in enforcing international standards.

????At times over its history, the IMF has indeed excelled. It showed itself to be much more than the world's intellectual leader, emergency provider of financing, and trusted advisor to governments. It also played the role of the world's institutional north star.

????Yet today's IMF falls quite short of its potential and, even more consequently, of what the global economy needs in order to grow and prosper. The institution's credibility is lacking. Its convening power has weakened. Its financial resources have lagged the growth and volatility of private capital.

????The IMF also has considerable representation and legitimacy deficits. Its governance is a reflection of the distant past and, certainly, not of today's global economy. As such, the institution's policy coordination role is seen as asymmetric by most, and ineffectual by many. And the Fund no longer plays the catalytic role that is so important for good global economic outcomes.

????The fault does not lie in the institution's analysis. Its work, spearheaded by the "World Economic Outlook," is regarded as first class.

????I can attest to this as both an economist and market participant. We eagerly await the Fund's analysis, data, and insights -- all of which inform and influence how we think about the global economy and global markets.