????你有沒有把統(tǒng)計模型運(yùn)用到約會上？

????幾年前，為了給《紐約時報雜志》（New York Times Magazine）寫一篇文章，對相親網(wǎng)站OkCupid做了一個小分析。我們想知道在一個星期的七天里，哪天晚上最適合約會或者說“約炮”。OkCubid收集了一些出去約會的人以及他們使用移動應(yīng)用情況的狀態(tài)報告。我們研究了那些想發(fā)展長期關(guān)系的人和那些僅僅想“一夜風(fēng)流”的人的比率。結(jié)果我們明顯地發(fā)現(xiàn)，星期三晚上想搞一夜情的人的比率最高。

????2016年誰有可能從大選中勝出？

????在這個問題上，我可能讓人失望了：我同意傳統(tǒng)的看法。如果希拉里參選了，她很難不獲得民主黨的提名。共和黨則很難避免一場混戰(zhàn)，他們有一些出色的候選人，也有一些糟糕的候選人，不過現(xiàn)在還沒人能壟斷共和黨，所以要打一場選戰(zhàn)才能決出勝負(fù)。最后的大選當(dāng)然取決于初選的結(jié)果，不過大家應(yīng)該注意，如果希拉里?克林頓贏了初選，她將是一個很好的候選人，而且她的支持率也比較高。不過對于任何一個政黨來說，連續(xù)三次贏得總統(tǒng)寶座都是很難的。如果到2016年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)很差，或者奧巴馬的支持率只有38%左右，那么對于民主黨候選人來說，處境將會很艱難，哪怕對于希拉里也是一樣。不過現(xiàn)在就預(yù)言2016年有點(diǎn)早，確切地說是太早了。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Have you ever applied your model to dating?

????I did one little analysis with OkCupid for a New York Times Magazine piece a couple of years ago where we were trying to figure out the best night of the week to go out and get laid basically. So OkCupid collected the data of some status reports of people who were out and about using their mobile application. And we looked at the ratio of people who wanted a long-term relationship vs. people who wanted just something for [that night]. On Wednesday apparently you get the highest ratio of people who are just looking for something quick and dirty.

????2016 presidential election: Who should we be looking out for?

????So I guess I'm disappointingly in line with the conventional wisdom here. If Hillary [Clinton] runs, it's hard to see her not winning the Democratic nomination. On the GOP side I don't think there's any way to avoid having a big messy primary, they have some good candidates and some bad candidates. But no one has a monopoly on that party right now, so they're going to have to fight it out. And then the general election of course depends on who wins the primaries, but people should be a little wary because look, Hillary Clinton might be a very good candidate if she wins [the primary], and she'd be a slight favorite, but still it's hard for any party to win the White House three terms in a row. If you have a poor economy by 2016, or if Obama's approval ratings are 38% or something like that, then it's hard for a Democratic processor to prevail even if it is Hillary. Trying to make predictions at this point is a little early. Actually, it's a lot early.