????就像發(fā)展中國(guó)家并不寬裕的消費(fèi)者直接越過(guò)固定電話，“一步到位”地選擇了移動(dòng)電話一樣，中國(guó)的低收入消費(fèi)者正跳過(guò)實(shí)體商店，成為電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)站的擁躉。

????麥肯錫公司（McKinsey & Co.）最近發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示，中國(guó)去年的電商銷售額估計(jì)達(dá)到了1900億美元，幾乎與全球最大的電商市場(chǎng)——美國(guó)齊平。到2020年，中國(guó)的在線零售市場(chǎng)有望至少增長(zhǎng)至4200億美元，屆時(shí)將超過(guò)美、日、英、德、法五國(guó)電商市場(chǎng)的總和。就在今年或者明年，中國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)就將超過(guò)美國(guó)成為全球最大的電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)。

????在一個(gè)以不可思議的速度增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，電子商務(wù)也不容忽視。自2003年以來(lái)，中國(guó)的電商市場(chǎng)以每年120%的速度增長(zhǎng)，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于美國(guó)17%的年增率，而且這一增長(zhǎng)還沒(méi)有停止的跡象。

????令麥肯錫公司感興趣的不僅僅是中國(guó)電商市場(chǎng)的巨額增幅，除此之外，電子商務(wù)或?qū)⑼苿?dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)政府提出的兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)：增加國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)以及促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從依賴基建向多樣化發(fā)展。在這篇題為《中國(guó)的電商革命》（China's E-tail Revolution）的報(bào)告中，作者指出，這不僅僅意味著消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)物場(chǎng)所發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變，商場(chǎng)購(gòu)物正在被取代。電子商務(wù)還驅(qū)動(dòng)消費(fèi)者開(kāi)始購(gòu)買新物品，特別是在一些欠發(fā)達(dá)的低收入城市，因?yàn)檫@些城市即便有大型零售門店，它們的商品也無(wú)法與在線商店的相媲美。

????總部位于北京的當(dāng)當(dāng)網(wǎng)（Dangdang）是一家與亞馬遜中國(guó)（Amazon China）相競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的電商網(wǎng)站，當(dāng)當(dāng)網(wǎng)的創(chuàng)始人俞渝表示：“中國(guó)仍然是一個(gè)零售業(yè)很不發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家，而且消費(fèi)者的需求總體上是很強(qiáng)勁的。我住在北京市中心，不管朝任何一個(gè)方向開(kāi)車，一個(gè)小時(shí)之后，我還在北京市里，但是我看不見(jiàn)好的商店了，不管是好的超市還是好的服裝店都看不到了?！?/p>

????超過(guò)70%的中國(guó)電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)站采取的是C2C模式。中國(guó)也有像eBay一樣的拍賣網(wǎng)站，比如淘寶（Taobao）、天貓（Tmall）和拍拍（Paipai），這些網(wǎng)站上有好幾億件商品。有些電商網(wǎng)站想成為中國(guó)的亞馬遜，比如京東商城（360Buy），它們正在二線城市建立運(yùn)營(yíng)機(jī)構(gòu)，而且分析師認(rèn)為他們最終將進(jìn)軍三、四線城市。

????盡管很多電商網(wǎng)站的下單都是通過(guò)智能手機(jī)或移動(dòng)應(yīng)用完成的，但是貨物的遞送流程卻采用了高科技與傳統(tǒng)相結(jié)合的方式——而且還非常適合中國(guó)消費(fèi)者。比如京東商城的當(dāng)日送達(dá)（取決于下單的時(shí)間）通常就是靠騎車的快遞小哥來(lái)送貨。

????很多小城市的消費(fèi)者喜歡貨到付款，這樣做的好處是，顧客可以利用某些電商網(wǎng)站推出的“現(xiàn)場(chǎng)試穿”服務(wù)，在付錢之前先把網(wǎng)購(gòu)來(lái)的東西試一下。

????麥肯錫的報(bào)告中還有一點(diǎn)很讓人吃驚：中國(guó)低收入城市消費(fèi)者的網(wǎng)購(gòu)支出與高收入城市消費(fèi)者相差無(wú)幾，盡管他們的可支配收入要比后者低得多。在一些偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)的中小城市，電子商務(wù)網(wǎng)站在扮演著“啟蒙者”的角色，許多消費(fèi)者第一次可以隨心所欲地購(gòu)買書籍、電影、服裝和其它商品。

????這意味著那些在網(wǎng)絡(luò)上購(gòu)買新產(chǎn)品的低收入消費(fèi)者，正在發(fā)揮越來(lái)越大的力量，推動(dòng)著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)前進(jìn)——盡管有人可能懷疑中國(guó)究竟能否轉(zhuǎn)型成一個(gè)消費(fèi)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體。對(duì)于中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，如果中國(guó)能變成全世界的電子商務(wù)之都，這可能就是最好的消息。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Just as cash-strapped consumers in the developing world bypassed so-called landline phones in favor of mobile devices, so China's lower-income consumers are skipping physical stores in favor of e-commerce sites.

????A recent report by McKinsey & Co. shows that e-commerce sales in China reached an estimated $190 billion last year, almost equaling the U.S. market as largest in the world. China's online retail industry is expected to grow to at least $420 billion by 2020 -- which would total more than the U.S., Japanese, U.K., German, and French markets combined. China will overtake the U.S. for the top spot next year, if it hasn't already.

????In an economy known for astonishing growth, e-commerce stands out. China's market has grown at a 120% annualized clip since 2003 compared to the U.S.'s 17% growth rate. It shows no signs of stopping.

????What interests McKinsey isn't just the massive growth -- it's the potential for e-commerce to drive the government's goal of increasing domestic consumption and diversifying the world's No. 2 economy from a reliance on infrastructure projects. The authors of the report, titled "China's E-tail Revolution," conclude that consumers are more than replacing what they might buy at the mall. E-commerce is driving consumers to buy new stuff, especially in the so-called lower-tier, lower-income cities where physical retail stores, if they exist at all, don't have anywhere near the same selection as online marketplaces.

????"China remains an under-retailed country, and customers' needs are very strong overall," says Peggy Yu Yu, co-founder of Dangdang, a Beijing-based e-commerce site that competes with Amazon China. "I live [in] downtown Beijing, and I drive any direction, and one hour later, still within Beijing, I don't see good stores anymore, be it supermarket or clothing store."

????More than 70% of China's e-commerce business is consumer to consumer. eBay-like (EBAY) auction sites called Taobao, Tmall, and Paipai host hundreds of millions of listings. But Amazon (AMZN) wannabes such as 360Buy are setting up operations in second-tier cities, and analysts believe they'll eventually start moving into third- and fourth-tier cities.

????While the ordering process on many e-commerce sites is done via mobile phones and apps, distribution is often a combination of high-tech and old-fashioned customers service -- which suits Chinese consumers just fine. 360buy, for example, offers same-day delivery (depending on when the order is placed) often via bike messenger.

????Consumers in smaller cities like to pay via cash on delivery; one upside is that the customer can try on their wares before making payment, employing what's been called the "mobile fitting room" option.

????What's surprising in the McKinsey report is that consumers in China's lower-tier cities actually spend as much online as higher-tier cities even though their consumers have far less disposable income. In the small and mid-size cities dotting the countryside, e-commerce sites are proving a revelation. Many consumers can now buy books, movies, clothes, and other goods for the first time.

????That means lower-income consumers who shop for newly available goods online are increasingly propelling the economy forward, even as some are skeptical that China can transition into a consumption economy. For China, as it becomes the e-commerce capital of the world, that might be the best news of all.