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頂尖分析師:我們正向新一代平臺(tái)轉(zhuǎn)移

頂尖分析師:我們正向新一代平臺(tái)轉(zhuǎn)移

Dan Mitchell 2013-06-03
瑪麗?米克爾是全球最頂尖的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)分析師。上周,她在自己的年度報(bào)告中稱,移動(dòng)行業(yè)仍有很大發(fā)展空間,同時(shí),消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)開始從智能手機(jī)、平板電腦等設(shè)備向可穿戴式設(shè)備轉(zhuǎn)移。

????????圖為1975年至2012年間按操作系統(tǒng)出貨量衡量,iOS、安卓、Windows在全球個(gè)人電腦市場份額的變遷。

????

????瑪麗?米克爾的年度“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)趨勢”報(bào)告跟上周一上午科奇?羅伯茨在美國國家公共電臺(tái)(NPR)的說法類似,充斥著毫無新意的傳統(tǒng)智慧。

????當(dāng)然,這并不意味著這份報(bào)告毫無價(jià)值:與羅伯茨每周的報(bào)告一樣,米克爾的年度報(bào)告將許多不相干的信息放在大背景下進(jìn)行分析,讓人們認(rèn)識(shí)到什么才是傳統(tǒng)智慧:羅伯茨是環(huán)城路智慧,而米克爾則是硅谷智慧。在這方面,米克爾比羅伯茨略勝一籌:她提供的大部分都是由風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司凱鵬華盈(Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers)內(nèi)部生成的數(shù)據(jù)。這位互聯(lián)網(wǎng)分析師同時(shí)也是這家公司的合伙人。上周三,她在AllThingD科技大會(huì)上公布了自己的報(bào)告,使用了大量幻燈片。

????其中一份幻燈片顯示,在社交媒體服務(wù)領(lǐng)域,F(xiàn)acebook仍處于領(lǐng)先位置,Twitter、Pinterest、YouTube、商務(wù)社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn等均增長迅速,促使米克爾說出了一句可以作為報(bào)告標(biāo)語的話:“大家都知道這些,靠直覺就能理解——下面這些數(shù)據(jù)只是佐證。”

????另外一張幻燈片顯示,網(wǎng)民每天在線分享的照片達(dá)到了5億張。米爾克預(yù)計(jì),一兩年內(nèi),這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)將就會(huì)翻一番。雖然90%分享的照片只有分享者自己認(rèn)為有趣,但這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)依然令人難以置信,它也解釋了為什么Facebook愿意出10億美元收購Instagram,為什么雅虎(Yahoo)最終決定對(duì)之前停滯不前的Flickr服務(wù)進(jìn)行改進(jìn),以及為什么蘋果(Apple)在電視廣告里都在把iPhone宣傳成一款相機(jī)。米克爾表示,引領(lǐng)照片分享增長趨勢的是Snapchat,但照片同樣帶動(dòng)了Facebook和其他服務(wù)的流量增長。

????Mary Meeker's annual Internet Trends report is a little like Cokie Roberts's Monday morning appearances on NPR -- a litany of points of unsurprising conventional wisdom.

????That doesn't make it valueless: Like Roberts's weekly reports, Meeker's annual presentations put a lot of disparate information in context and offer a guide to what is, well, the conventional wisdom: Beltway wisdom in Roberts's case, Silicon Valley wisdom in Meeker's. Meeker is one up on Roberts in this respect: She offers a lot of data largely generated in-house at the venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, where the Internet analyst is a partner. Her report, presented Wednesday at the AllThingsD conference, was, as always, accompanied by an insane number of slides.

????One of them, showing Facebook (FB) at the head of the pack of social media services that are all growing -- Twitter, Pinterest, YouTube (GOOG), LinkedIn (LNKD) -- prompted Meeker to utter a line that could have been the slogan for her report: "You know that, you intuit it -- here's some data that backs it up."

????Another slide showed that 500 million photos are shared online every day, and Meeker expects that number to double between this year and next. Never mind that seemingly 90% of shared photos are interesting mainly just to the sharer, that's an incredible number and it explains why Facebook shelled out $1 billion for Instagram, why Yahoo (YHOO) finally got around to revamping its formerly moribund Flickr service, and why Apple (AAPL) is running all those TV spots peddling the iPhone as a camera. Snapchat is leading the growth of photo-sharing, Meeker said, but photos are driving traffic growth for Facebook and lots of other services as well.

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