飛機(jī)、火車和汽車

如何滿足13億人口及他們所需物資的交通運(yùn)輸需求？

????中國(guó)的繁榮之路可能不僅需要公路的鋪設(shè)，而且需要機(jī)場(chǎng)與高鐵的建設(shè)。

????中國(guó)很多經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)都要依賴高效的交通運(yùn)輸：城鎮(zhèn)化使得在城市和農(nóng)村大力投資交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施都成為必要的舉措。一些新項(xiàng)目涉及在大城市興建高速公路和地鐵。還有一些道路項(xiàng)目將城鎮(zhèn)與鄉(xiāng)村貫通，使它們?nèi)谌胝诳焖賶汛蟮某鞘薪煌ňW(wǎng)絡(luò)中。隨著沿海地區(qū)逐漸走向現(xiàn)代化，基礎(chǔ)制造業(yè)會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向中西部?jī)?nèi)陸地區(qū)。北京與上海等東部城市正沿著價(jià)值鏈向更尖端的產(chǎn)業(yè)邁進(jìn)，中國(guó)計(jì)劃將更多的發(fā)展與貨運(yùn)項(xiàng)目轉(zhuǎn)移到相對(duì)比較偏遠(yuǎn)的西部省份。斥資270億美元在武漢建設(shè)內(nèi)陸港口的計(jì)劃就是一個(gè)例子。

????中國(guó)正在全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)大力推進(jìn)交通建設(shè)，希望能夠借此更好地挖掘正在崛起的中產(chǎn)階層巨大的消費(fèi)潛力。分析師稱，國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來(lái)起著關(guān)鍵作用。相比于依賴向歐美出口廉價(jià)商品的路子，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需能讓中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)更可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

????中國(guó)很多項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)都在我們的意料之中，與美國(guó)工業(yè)革命（Industrial Revolution）期間的發(fā)展模式相似，不同的只是規(guī)模大小的差別。2007年，中國(guó)還沒(méi)有高速鐵路；而如今卻擁有世界上規(guī)模最大的高速鐵路網(wǎng)，總里程長(zhǎng)達(dá)5,800英里。中國(guó)計(jì)劃到2015年末至少再增建5,400英里的超高速軌道、50個(gè)機(jī)場(chǎng)以及440個(gè)深水船舶泊位。

????考慮到近期中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的放緩以及外界對(duì)于大興基建導(dǎo)致地方政府債臺(tái)高筑有可能引發(fā)危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂情緒，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型似乎不是那么好駕馭。在2011年至2015年將高速鐵路里程增加一倍的目標(biāo)也不是那么容易，盡管目前來(lái)看這一目標(biāo)還有望達(dá)成。畢馬威政府機(jī)構(gòu)和基建業(yè)主管葉偉成稱：“有很多人們認(rèn)為不可能發(fā)生的事情都在中國(guó)發(fā)生了?！?/p>

Planes, trains, and automobiles

How do you transport 1.3 billion people and all their supplies?

????China's path to prosperity may be paved with more than just roads. It's also building airports. And high-speed railways.

????So many of China's economic goals hinge on efficient transport: The shift from rural to urban living has necessitated vast investments in transit, both in cities and the country. Some new projects consist of highways and subway lines built within metropolitan areas. Others will link rural towns and villages, bringing them into the country's rapidly growing urban network. Gradually, as the coasts continue to modernize, basic manufacturing will move further inland. As eastern cities like Beijing and Shanghai rise up the value chain toward more sophisticated industries, China plans to shift more development (and freight) toward its relatively isolated western provinces. Case in point: It's spending $27 billion on an inland port in Wuhan.

????By developing greater connectivity throughout the country, China hopes it will be better able to tap into the vast spending potential of its rising middle class. Domestic consumption, analysts say, is the key to the future of the Chinese economy. By focusing inward, China will be able to create more sustainable growth than it would by peddling low-cost exports to the U.S. and Europe.

????Much of the construction is what you might expect -- the development patterns echo the U.S. during the Industrial Revolution. What's different is the scale. In 2007, China had no high-speed rail; today it has the world's largest high-speed network, with 5,800 miles of track. The country plans to construct at least 5,400 more miles of superfast track, plus at least 50 additional airports and 440 deep-water berths for ships by the end of 2015.

????Given the recent slowdown and fears over repercussions from infrastructure-induced government debt, managing that kind of economic redirection may seem tricky. But then again, so does doubling the country's length of high-speed rail between 2011 and 2015 -- and that goal is on track so far. Says Stephen Ip, KPMG China's lead partner for government and infrastructure: "A lot of things happen in China that you don't think could."