????一周前，中國(guó)最大的豬肉生產(chǎn)商雙匯國(guó)際（Shuanghui International）宣布達(dá)成協(xié)議，將斥資71億美元（含債務(wù)）收購(gòu)美國(guó)最大的豬肉生產(chǎn)商史密斯菲爾德食品公司（Smithfield）。目前市場(chǎng)仍在消化雙匯國(guó)際這一大手筆之作。這宗交易是迄今為止，中資企業(yè)收購(gòu)美國(guó)企業(yè)手筆最大的一次，分析師們也提出了收購(gòu)背后可能涉及的多種原因。有人認(rèn)為，河南私企雙匯通過這次收購(gòu)交易來擴(kuò)大自身向高增長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)高價(jià)優(yōu)質(zhì)豬肉的實(shí)力，可謂一著妙招。還有人認(rèn)為，這筆交易的真正目的是為了收購(gòu)寶貴的養(yǎng)豬技術(shù)和豬肉加工技術(shù)。更有人擔(dān)心的，雙匯可能通過史密斯菲爾德這個(gè)渠道攻入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)。

????正如中資企業(yè)收購(gòu)其它美國(guó)資產(chǎn)一樣，我們也可以從多個(gè)視角來看待這筆交易。有人擔(dān)心這項(xiàng)交易會(huì)為中國(guó)的不安全食品進(jìn)入美國(guó)超市打開大門，這是可以理解的，不過也是空穴來風(fēng)，沒有根據(jù)。除此之外，其它多數(shù)說法還是部分觸及了交易幕后的核心動(dòng)機(jī)。確實(shí)，這次收購(gòu)將有利于雙匯提升向中國(guó)市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)豬肉的實(shí)力。不過在這里，我們需要更深度地剖析。去年中國(guó)的人均豬肉消費(fèi)量為85.3磅，高于美國(guó)的59.3磅。如果考慮兩國(guó)人口數(shù)量差異（中國(guó)和美國(guó)人口分別為13.44億和3.14億），中國(guó)的豬肉需求量還是要比美國(guó)高出6倍左右。

????2012年，拿豬的屠宰量來說，史密斯菲爾德約占美國(guó)屠宰產(chǎn)能的四分之一，卻僅占中國(guó)屠宰量的3%。換句話說，雙匯或許可以透過史密斯菲爾德現(xiàn)代化、高效安全的養(yǎng)豬場(chǎng)和加工廠采購(gòu)更多豬肉，但相對(duì)于中國(guó)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模而言，在可預(yù)見的未來，史密斯菲爾德能夠向中國(guó)出口的豬肉量如九牛一毛。

????利用史密斯菲爾德的技術(shù)和管理能力說得通嗎？理論上講，這個(gè)主張很吸引人。美國(guó)豬肉業(yè)是高度整合的現(xiàn)代行業(yè)，具有一定規(guī)模效益。在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)銷售的豬肉85%都來自規(guī)模超過2000頭的大型養(yǎng)豬場(chǎng)。這些養(yǎng)豬場(chǎng)采用氣候控制技術(shù)，相互獨(dú)立，極大地降低了疾病傳播的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。相比之下，中國(guó)豬肉產(chǎn)業(yè)很零散，規(guī)模小，技術(shù)落后。而中國(guó)70%的豬肉產(chǎn)自規(guī)模在500頭或以下、且衛(wèi)生條件常常很簡(jiǎn)陋的養(yǎng)豬場(chǎng)。

????然而，像雙匯這樣的中國(guó)豬肉生產(chǎn)商要想轉(zhuǎn)型為史密斯菲爾德這樣的企業(yè)還面臨著兩大障礙。一是產(chǎn)權(quán)問題。由于土地國(guó)有，私有產(chǎn)權(quán)在中國(guó)沒有保障。整合中國(guó)養(yǎng)豬業(yè)雖然在技術(shù)上行得通，但即便對(duì)于雙匯這樣搞實(shí)業(yè)的企業(yè)來說，它也會(huì)是一場(chǎng)涉及諸多法律和官僚問題的夢(mèng)魘。

????第二大阻礙基本上不可逾越。不管采用什么技術(shù)來促進(jìn)中國(guó)豬肉業(yè)高效運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，但在污染問題普遍的中國(guó)幾乎不大可能確保飼料安全。

????這也許觸及到了雙匯收購(gòu)美國(guó)這家標(biāo)志性食品生產(chǎn)商背后的真正動(dòng)機(jī)。有關(guān)這宗交易鋪天蓋地的媒體報(bào)道中所提到的方方面面的因素可能都是雙匯所考慮到的問題。不過，里面還有深層次的原因。

????A week after the announcement that Shuanghui International, China's largest pork producer, has struck a deal to purchase Smithfield, the largest U.S. pork producer, for $7.1 billion (including debt), the development is still being digested. Many theories have been advanced to explain the deal -- which is so far the largest acquisition of an American firm by a Chinese company. Some people see this move by Shuanghui, a private firm based in Henan, as a masterstroke to expand its ability to supply a fast-growing market with premium-brand pork at higher prices. Some view the purchase as a means to acquire valuable hog-farming and processing technology. Others worry that Shuanghui might use Smithfield as a channel to sell its products in the U.S.

????As with other Chinese purchases of American assets, this particular deal can be seen from several perspectives. Except for the understandable, but unfounded, fear that this transaction could open the door for unsafe Chinese food to find its way into American supermarkets, most interpretations manage to tell part of the real story. Yes, Shuanghui's acquisition will help increase its ability to supply China's market. But here we need to have some perspective. Per capita consumption of pork in China last year was 85.3 pounds, compared with 59.3 pounds in the U.S. When you factor in the difference in the size of each country's population -- 1.344 billion vs. 314 million -- the Chinese demand for pork is still about six times larger than in the United States.

????In 2012, the number of hogs slaughtered by Smithfield, which has about a quarter of the U.S. slaughter capacity, would account for only 3% of China's slaughtered hogs. In other words, Shuanghui may be able to source more of its pork from Smithfield's modern, efficient, and safe pig farms and processing facilities, but the quantity that can be exported to China in the foreseeable future will be miniscule relative to the size of the Chinese market.

????What about taking advantage of Smithfield's technology and management? On paper, this is an attractive proposition. American pork farming is a consolidated modern industry with economies of scale. Eighty-seven percent of the pork sold in the U.S. is produced on big pig farms with more than 2,000 hogs. Such farms are climate-controlled and self-contained to minimize the spread of disease. By contrast, the Chinese pork industry is fragmented, small-scale, and low-tech. Seventy percent of the pork in China is produced by pig farms with 500 hogs or less. Hygienic conditions are often primitive.

????However, transforming a Chinese pork producer like Shuanghui into a Smithfield faces two difficult hurdles. The first one is property rights. Land is owned by the state, and private property rights are insecure in China. Consolidating the hog industry in China, while technologically feasible, can be a legal and bureaucratic nightmare, even for an entrepreneurial company such as Shuanghui.

????The second hurdle is practically insurmountable. Whatever technology one might want to use to make the Chinese pork industry more efficient, ensuring the safety of the feed will be almost impossible because of widespread pollution in China.

????This touches upon perhaps the real driver behind Shuanghui's acquisition of an iconic American food producer. It may be about all of the things mentioned in the intensive media coverage of the deal. But there is more.