????通過細(xì)加分析，我們就應(yīng)該可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國環(huán)境惡化問題是解釋這次收購的關(guān)鍵所在。數(shù)年來觀察人士歷一直試圖弄清楚中國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長下水資源、空氣和農(nóng)田大面積污染所造成的真正后果。分析師們使用了各種預(yù)估數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算污染的經(jīng)濟(jì)成本及對居民健康的影響（污染成本預(yù)計(jì)介于國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的5%到8%之間，而具體估測值則取決于統(tǒng)計(jì)期限）。這些數(shù)字雖然令人震驚，但過于抽象。

????雙匯收購史密斯菲爾德使得這些數(shù)字顯得更具體。這次交易背后的真正原因在于，這些有遠(yuǎn)見的中國企業(yè)家心里非常清楚，由于中國食物鏈多數(shù)環(huán)節(jié)已經(jīng)受到污染，因此把握未來利潤的機(jī)遇還得靠從境外收購整個(gè)食品生產(chǎn)鏈。從這層意義上來說，雙匯收購史密斯菲爾德是醉翁之意，既不看中它的豬肉加工技術(shù)，也不看中它的高端品牌，而是看中美國安全的農(nóng)場和干凈的水源供應(yīng)。

????雙匯的這個(gè)戰(zhàn)略算盤打得很高明。中國官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國三分之二以上的水路都已經(jīng)遭到污染。20世紀(jì)90年代末期進(jìn)行的一次農(nóng)田樣本研究顯示，10%的農(nóng)田受到重金屬污染。2010年完成的一次為期三年的有關(guān)土壤條件的全國調(diào)查結(jié)果肯定也得到同樣驚人的數(shù)據(jù)，促使環(huán)保部宣布相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為“國家機(jī)密”。

????由于清理受重金屬和其他致癌物質(zhì)污染的土地和水路需要投入大量的財(cái)力和時(shí)間，因此收購擁有自有土地、安全水供應(yīng)的食品生產(chǎn)商這一動機(jī)要比其他理由更有份量。

????如果以上分析沒錯(cuò)的話，那么雙匯收購史密斯菲爾德就是一個(gè)未來大趨勢的前兆。面對環(huán)境惡化所帶來的災(zāi)難性后果，中國食品生產(chǎn)商將別無選擇，唯有放眼海外。毋庸置疑，這對于許多企業(yè)來說意味著巨大商機(jī)。不過可以大致肯定的是，中方加快收購境外食品公司將會給中國和世界其他地區(qū)之間造成緊張氣氛。遺憾的是，目前還沒有解決這個(gè)難題的好辦法。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????作者系克萊蒙特?麥肯納學(xué)院72級“湯姆和瑪格特?普利茲克”政治學(xué)教授，兼美國德國馬歇爾基金會非常駐高級成員。

????譯者：默默

????When we exhaust our analysis, we should find that the most strategic explanation for this acquisition is China's environmental degradation. For years, observers have been trying to figure out the real-world consequences of the extensive pollution of air, water, and farmland in China as a result of its rapid economic growth. Various estimates have been used to calculate the economic costs and human toll of pollution (estimates of the costs of pollution range from 5 to 8% of GDP, depending on the value of a statistical life used for the exercise). Such numbers are shocking but abstract.

????With Shuanghui's purchase of Smithfield, these numbers are less abstract. The real story behind this transaction is that far-sighted Chinese entrepreneurs fully understand that, because pollution has contaminated major parts of China's food chain, their future profit opportunities lie in buying the entire food-production process abroad. Bagging Smithfield, in this sense, is not about getting its hogs, pork-processing technology, or even premium brand. It is really about owning access to America's safe farmland and clean water supplies.

????This strategic calculation is truly brilliant. Based on official Chinese data, more than two-thirds of its waterways are polluted. A sample study of farmland conducted in the late 1990s showed 10% contaminated with heavy metal. A three-year national survey of soil conditions completed in 2010 must have yielded such alarming data that the Ministry of Environmental Protection declared the data a "state secret."

????Given the fact that cleaning up land and waterways despoiled by heavy metal and other carcinogens requires huge amounts of money and takes a long time, buying food producers that own their land and have access to safe water supplies is a far more attractive proposition.

????If this analysis is correct, the Shuanghui purchase of Smithfield is a harbinger of things to come. Pressured by the catastrophic consequences of environmental degradation, Chinese food producers will have no choice but set their sights abroad. No doubt, this will present great business opportunities for many, but a rapid increase in Chinese acquisitions of food companies overseas will almost certainly create tensions between China and the rest of the world. Sadly, there are no good policies in place to address this challenge.

????Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.