????過(guò)去十年間，在科技行業(yè)中還有哪家公司能像黑莓（BlackBerry）這樣經(jīng)歷了如此激烈的大起大落呢？

????如果你還有點(diǎn)印象的話，黑莓公司【今年年初，它拋棄了原來(lái)那個(gè)笨重、但卻可能更有詩(shī)意的名字——“行動(dòng)研究公司”（RIM】曾經(jīng)一度在業(yè)界如日中天。十年前，它的股價(jià)不過(guò)才每股15美元。由于它能制造具有安全可靠的郵件功能的頂級(jí)手機(jī)，以及在智能手機(jī)萌芽期遙遙領(lǐng)先于對(duì)手，這家公司迅速聲名鵲起，股價(jià)隨之不斷飆升。

????五年前，這家公司的股價(jià)達(dá)到了每股145美元，也就是五年間增長(zhǎng)了近十倍?？炊嗟耐顿Y者非常自信，認(rèn)為這家生產(chǎn)有史以來(lái)最好手機(jī)——至少在那時(shí)看來(lái)確實(shí)如此——的加拿大公司肯定能征服世界【RIM一度被《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）評(píng)選為美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)最快的公司】。然而人們沒(méi)料到，市場(chǎng)上的智能手機(jī)變得更智能了。

????2007年，iPhone橫空出世。消費(fèi)者立刻被吸引住了。蘋果公司（Apple）征服了世界。不管黑莓手機(jī)那個(gè)小鍵盤用起來(lái)是多么讓人上癮，也不管用它發(fā)郵件和短信是多么輕松自如，但iPhone憑借靈敏的觸摸屏和引人入勝的自帶應(yīng)用（想想Google Maps! iPhoto! Pocket Guitar!），立刻開啟了一個(gè)完全不同的后黑莓世界。

????而黑莓在這個(gè)世界里一直在苦苦掙扎，想要找到自己的位置。而實(shí)際上它的地位已經(jīng)跌倒谷底。曾經(jīng)風(fēng)光無(wú)限的145美元股價(jià)？那是iPhone問(wèn)世之后一年的事。去年，黑莓的股價(jià)已經(jīng)跌到只有6美元一股了。

????黑莓曾拍胸脯表示要推出一款觸屏手機(jī)，能和iPhone一較高下，或者說(shuō)可以和許多在它之后問(wèn)世的搭載谷歌（Google）安卓（Android）系統(tǒng)的手機(jī)相抗衡。如果新推出的手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng)有漏洞，那無(wú)異于自殺，所以黑莓不斷完善這個(gè)系統(tǒng)，哪怕這意味著一而再、再而三地推遲發(fā)布日期。幾個(gè)月前，BB10終于問(wèn)世。然而，到了這個(gè)時(shí)候，很多人已經(jīng)徹底看扁了這家公司，認(rèn)為它毫無(wú)投資價(jià)值了。

????我們可以來(lái)看看投資者放棄黑莓股票的歷程如何？9個(gè)月前，黑莓的股票按其近期的低位進(jìn)行交易，做空方賣空了8,800萬(wàn)股，即其每日平均可交易股份的兩倍（用華爾街的行話來(lái)說(shuō)就是“空頭凈額比率”）。5月底，空頭凈額已達(dá)到1.71億股，即“空頭凈額比率”達(dá)到9倍。

????當(dāng)時(shí)，黑莓的股價(jià)已從6美元漲到14美元。的確，這是去年秋季股價(jià)的兩倍還多，但是要知道，這仍然是其5年前股價(jià)的十分之一?！朵撹F俠》（Iron Man）第一部上映時(shí)，黑莓公司的股價(jià)是145美元。現(xiàn)在《鋼鐵俠3》都上映了，投資者當(dāng)時(shí)的投資額現(xiàn)在卻縮水了九成之多。

????大家讀到《蘋果大戰(zhàn)三星》這類頭條新聞時(shí)，可能會(huì)想，黑莓真是玩完了。不過(guò)不是每個(gè)人都這么想的。還是有一幫堅(jiān)定的分析師和投資者認(rèn)為，黑莓最糟糕的時(shí)期已經(jīng)過(guò)去了。而詹姆斯?法賽特近期在一篇為太平洋皇冠證券（Pacific Crest）撰寫的短文中稱：“我們對(duì)黑莓的評(píng)級(jí)仍為負(fù)面，同時(shí)也相信，要靠黑莓10來(lái)打翻身仗，從而獲得可持續(xù)盈利能力，已經(jīng)變得越來(lái)越不可能。”

????Has any company in the technology sector seen higher highs and lower lows in the past decade than BlackBerry?

????If you remember, BlackBerry (BBRY) -- which earlier this year changed its name from the clunkier if more poetic name of Research-in-Motion -- once ascended to great heights. Ten years ago, it traded at a modest $15 a share. Then its reputation for making top-of-the-line phones with secure, reliable messaging -- along with an early lead in the budding smartphones -- pushed its stock up, up, up.

????So far up that, five years ago, the company's shares were trading around $145 a share, a tenfold increase in only five years. Bullish investors were confident the Canadian company that had created the best mobile phone ever -- well, at the time at least -- was poised to conquer the world. (RIM was once named Fortune's fastest-growing company in the U.S.) Instead smartphones got, well, smarter.

????In 2007, the iPhone came. Consumers saw. And Apple (AAPL) conquered. For all the addictive allure of the bubbly BlackBerry keypad under your thumbs, and no matter how much easier it was to type emails and messages on it, the iPhone's intuitive touchscreen and the seductive apps that came with it (Google Maps! iPhoto! Pocket Guitar!) pointed to a decidedly post-BlackBerry world.

????In that world, BlackBerry has struggled to find its role. And here is where the lows got pretty low. That stock price of $145 a share? It came one year after the iPhone appeared. Last year, it descended to $6 a share.

????BlackBerry promised a touchscreen phone that could rival the iPhone or the many the Android phones developed by Google (GOOG) that had appeared in its wake. Delivering a new mobile OS that had bugs would be product suicide, so Blackberry perfected its efforts, even though it meant delay after delay after delay. And by the time BB10 finally arrived in recent months, many had written the company off for good.

????Here's an illustration of how some investors had given up on the stock. Nine months ago, when BlackBerry's stock was trading near its recent lows, bearish investors had sold 88 million shares short, or two days its average daily volume (termed "days to cover" in Wall Street parlance). At the end of May, short interest had mounted to 171 million shares, or nine days to cover.

????In that time, BlackBerry's stock has risen from $6 a share to $14 a share. Yes, that's more than double its price last fall, but consider: It's still a tenth of its price five years ago. When the firstIron Man movie came out, you could have bought this company's stock for $145 a share. And now that Iron Man 3 is in theaters, you would have a dime for every dollar you invested.

????Reading headlines about the Apple vs. Samsung battle, you might think it's all over for BlackBerry. But not everyone thinks so. There remains a strong contingent of analysts and investors who think the worst days of this company are behind it. "We remain negative on BBRY and believe a turnaround to sustainable profitability based on BlackBerry 10 appears increasingly unlikely," James Faucette said in a recent note for Pacific Crest.