????有些人則反潮流而行之，相信黑莓會東山再起。他們并不是喪失了理智，他們認(rèn)為黑莓的下一步反攻行動近在眼前。而且他們很愿意跟人分享他們的道理。

????法國興業(yè)銀行（Société Générale）的分析師安迪?帕金斯就是一個例子。上周他發(fā)表了一份研究報告，雖然這份報告也許和黑莓股價上漲6%并無直接關(guān)系。他雄辯地宣稱，沒人真正知道黑莓手機到底賣掉了多少臺，而他給出的數(shù)字聽起來頗令人振奮：本季度銷售了400萬臺，較之上季度的100萬臺大幅增長。而基于Q10和Z10在英國剛上市時的銷量，他寫道：“（黑莓）手機的銷售比我們先前預(yù)期的要快?！?/p>

????的確，這點銷量只是iPhone和Galaxy本季度預(yù)期銷量3,000萬臺的一個零頭，但它確實也能表明，在這場殘酷的競賽中，黑莓還算能放手一搏。當(dāng)然，沒人會指望它現(xiàn)在就能力壓群雄。但能與群狼共舞，它也算干得不賴了。

????盡管帕金斯也知道，在華爾街的眼里，他的判斷方法并不那么準(zhǔn)確，但他還是大膽地把黑莓的股票評級從“賣出”升級為“買入”，同時把目標(biāo)價從13美元調(diào)高到了17美元。

????僅僅一天之后，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的梅納德?烏就加入進來，表示支持帕金斯。梅納德?烏重申了他對黑莓所持的“買入”評級，同時表示黑莓手機銷量良好，足以支撐其獲得高于華爾街預(yù)期的營收。緊接著就是在消費者新聞與商業(yè)電視頻道（CNBC）上展開了一場激烈的多空辯論。辯論中，看多一方展開了幾個季度以來最有力的論證，同時一些獨立觀察家也做了分析，他們甚至為了證明黑莓正在王者歸來而不惜拍桌子。

????當(dāng)然，看空一方的論據(jù)也很充分（周三，黑莓股價就因為另一個降級評級而下挫3%。這個評級來自貝恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research），它認(rèn)為對黑莓業(yè)績復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期過高）。但值得關(guān)注的是，大家正為黑莓的未來爭得不可開交。一年前這種情景還難以想象。一方面，確實很難說這家公司能恢復(fù)往日的輝煌。但另一方面，正是這些情緒激烈的辯論有時候會表明某支股票正在經(jīng)歷復(fù)蘇。

????黑莓確實已從近期的低谷中有所恢復(fù)，但要回到它曾經(jīng)的高度卻有很長的路要走。這場逆襲大戲本身不會太精彩，只是這家公司的擁躉們現(xiàn)在又回來了。不管大家對這家公司的前景抱有什么看法，這個發(fā)展過程本身就值得關(guān)注。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠

????Against this tide rides the return of the BlackBerry believer. Some people -- maybe not-so-crazy people -- think this company has a second act ahead. And they have some arguments they'd like you to hear.

????Take Andy Perkins, an analyst with Société Générale. Last week, he sent out a research not that sent BlackBerry's stock rising 6%. He started off with an equivocating assertion that no one really knows how many BlackBerry phones are being bought, but his count suggested something encouraging: Four million this quarter, up from 1 million a quarter earlier. Based on early U.K. sales of the Q10 and Z10, "handset sales have been faster than we previously assumed," he wrote.

????Yes, that's a fraction of the 30 million-plus units of iPhones and Galaxy phones expected to be sold this quarter, but it also shows that BlackBerry is still a horse in this cutthroat sweepstakes. No, no one expects it to lead right now. But hell, it's doing a fine job just riding with the herd.

????Although Perkins saw his metrics as uncertain by Wall Street terms, he took the bold step of upgrading BlackBerry's stock to Buy from Sell and raising his price target to $17 a share from $13 a share.

????A day later, Maynard Um of Wells Fargo weighed in, supporting Perkins. Um reiterated his Buy rating and said that sales of BlackBerry units were selling well enough to justify higher earnings than the Street was expecting. All that follows a bull-versus-bear debate on CNBC where the bulls made the company's strongest case in quarters, as well as analysis among independentobservers, who have been pounding the table for a BlackBerry comeback.

????Of course, bears remain vocal too. (The stock is down 3% today on another downgrade, this time from Bernstein Research warning that expectations were getting too hopeful). But what's significant about BlackBerry is that there is an argument going on about its future. Even that was hard to imagine a year ago. On the one hand, yes it's hard to say this company will return to its former glory. On the other, it's just these kinds of clashes of sentiment that can sometimes signal a turnaround in a stock.

????BlackBerry has come back from its recent lows, but it has far to go to even begin to approach its highs. That itself wouldn't be remarkable, except that the company's believers have come back. Whatever you think about this company's prospects, that development deserves some consideration.