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中國公司逐鹿全球電商大市場

中國公司逐鹿全球電商大市場

Ken Hao 2013-06-25
未來5年,全球最具價值公司將從電商大戰(zhàn)中脫穎而出,而這場大戰(zhàn)將主要圍繞“最后一英里”市場的爭奪展開。眼下,美國搜索領(lǐng)域的谷歌,電商領(lǐng)域的亞馬遜、eBay,社交領(lǐng)域的Facebook,中國搜索領(lǐng)域的百度,電商領(lǐng)域的阿里巴巴,社交領(lǐng)域的騰訊都在排兵布陣,戰(zhàn)斗已經(jīng)打響。

????過去10年間,有7大公司在全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟中贏得了巨大的市場份額。其中,美國的幾大巨頭及其各自統(tǒng)領(lǐng)的領(lǐng)域早已廣為人知:搜索領(lǐng)域的谷歌公司(Google,市值2,930億美元),電子商務領(lǐng)域的亞馬遜公司(Amazon,市值1,250億美元)和eBay公司(市值660億美元),以及社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)領(lǐng)域的Facebook公司(市值580億美元)。

????知名度稍遜一籌的另外3家公司都在中國:中國領(lǐng)先的搜索引擎百度公司(Baidu,市值330億美元),電子商務領(lǐng)域的江湖霸主阿里巴巴公司(Alibaba,非上市公司),社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)及游戲領(lǐng)域首屈一指的騰訊公司(Tencent,市值690億美元)。

????如果未來5年,這些互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭中任何一家能繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)在的增長率,都有可能成為全球最值錢的公司。在此期間,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟中的這些超級細分市場必將出現(xiàn)日益激烈的競爭。而在本人看來,電子商務市場將是最重要的戰(zhàn)場。

電商市場

????部分分析師認為,電子商務已經(jīng)是個成熟的、充分滲透的市場了,比如亞馬遜早已高調(diào)推出各種網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務及視頻流媒體,而eBay的增長率也一直保持在15-20%的高位。但這種看法太簡單化了。從全球范圍看,電子商務將成為規(guī)模極其龐大、同時不斷擴張的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟形態(tài)。

????據(jù)美國統(tǒng)計局(Census Bureau)的數(shù)據(jù),2012年美國的電子商務銷售總額近2,250億美元,占同期全美商品零售總額的5%以上。美國電子商務下一個增長領(lǐng)域來自本地商業(yè)的“最后一英里”,其中用于產(chǎn)品和服務的零售支出中有75%是在離家15英里范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生的。如果電子商務能成功占領(lǐng)這個領(lǐng)域,那么“最后一英里”的市場規(guī)模在新一波機遇和增長的推動下可能達到美國電子商務市場現(xiàn)有規(guī)模的兩倍、甚至三倍。

????而中國的電商市場可能將比美國電商市場大得多,目前這個市場還只是處于第三輪或第四輪發(fā)展周期中。去年中國的網(wǎng)購零售收入是2,070億美元,為同期中國商品零售總額的6%。中國的網(wǎng)民人數(shù)一直在增長,而網(wǎng)上購物的滲透率尚不及發(fā)達國家的一半水平。

????中國電子商務迅猛增長的勢頭還受到該國相對落后的零售基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的推動。隨著中國直接進入無線通信時代,它可能會通過突飛猛進的電商發(fā)展,跳過實體零售店的發(fā)展階段。最近,阿里巴巴公司富有遠見的創(chuàng)始人兼執(zhí)行主席馬云先生預言稱,未來5年中國電商滲透率可能會從今天占商品零售總額的6%猛增至30%,即實現(xiàn)五倍增長。

????Over the past 10 years, seven companies have carved out lion-sized shares of the global Internet economy. The American giants and their respective kingdoms are well-known: Google ($293 billion market cap) in search, Amazon ($125 billion) and eBay ($66 billion) in e-commerce and Facebook ($58billion) in social networking.

????Less familiar are the other three, all based in China: Baidu ($33 billion), the leading Chinese search engine; Alibaba (privately held), the dominant force in e-commerce; and Tencent ($69 billion), the principal player in social networking and gaming.

????If any of these Internet giants can maintain their growth rate over the next five years, it has the potential to become the world's most valuable company. During this period, we will see intensifying head-to-head competition within the super-segments of the Internet economy. In my view, the e-commerce market will become the most important battlefield of all.

The E-Commerce Market

????Some analysts view e-commerce as a maturing and well-penetrated market, pointing to Amazon's (AMZN) high-profile forays into web services and video streaming and eBay's growth rate, which has stabilized in the 15-20% range. Yet this perspective is too simple. E-commerce continues to present a gigantic, expanding pool of Internet economics across the globe.

????In the U.S., e-commerce was nearly $225 billion in 2012, accounting for over 5% of total U.S. retail sales, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The next frontier of U.S. e-commerce growth is within the "last mile" of local commerce, where 75% of all retail spending occurs fifteen miles from home, across both products and services. If successful, this "last mile" market could double or triple the U.S. e-commerce market in a new surge of opportunity and growth.

????In China, e-commerce has the potential to be far larger than the U.S. market and may only be in its third or fourth inning of growth. Online retail revenue in China was $207 billion last year, representing 6% of total retail spending. The population of Internet users in China continues to grow, and the penetration of online shopping in China has not even reached half the levels found in developed countries.

????This "growth on growth" characteristic of e-commerce in China is further fueled by the relative immaturity of the country's retail infrastructure. Just as China jumped straight to wireless communications, China may skip a generation of brick-and-mortar retail build-out through aggressive e-commerce adoption. Jack Ma, the visionary founder and executive chairman of Alibaba, recently predicted that e-commerce penetration in China could grow from 6% today to 30% of overall retail spending in the next five years, implying more than five-fold growth.

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