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為什么大數(shù)據(jù)比不上好直覺(jué)

為什么大數(shù)據(jù)比不上好直覺(jué)

Tim Leberecht 2013-06-27
大數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)給企業(yè)帶來(lái)很多好處,但不要把它作為新的商業(yè)信仰來(lái)膜拜。它是一個(gè)重要的衡量工具,但并不能衡量一切,還有許多無(wú)法量化的東西需要依靠人類獨(dú)一無(wú)二的天賦來(lái)把握。兩者結(jié)合才是恰當(dāng)?shù)淖龇ā?

????大數(shù)據(jù)是一筆大生意。感應(yīng)器、GPS跟蹤、數(shù)學(xué)建模和人工智能給企業(yè)帶來(lái)了大規(guī)模的實(shí)時(shí)市場(chǎng)洞察力,為監(jiān)控、定位、衡量員工和顧客開(kāi)辟了史無(wú)前例的新方法。分析公司高德納(Gartner)預(yù)計(jì),采用大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)的公司將“在所有可測(cè)的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)上超過(guò)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者20%?!?/p>

????大數(shù)據(jù)可能是“新的石油”,但我要提醒大家,不要把它當(dāng)作一個(gè)新的信仰來(lái)崇拜。身處數(shù)據(jù)洪流之中,我們不僅失去了對(duì)商業(yè)的大局觀,還失去了部分人性。如果我們認(rèn)為更好的生活就等同于更好的算法,還能留下多少創(chuàng)新空間?

????我不是有數(shù)據(jù)恐懼癥,我擔(dān)憂的是純粹依靠數(shù)據(jù)。我不反對(duì)定量的測(cè)量方法,但我質(zhì)疑它們作為商業(yè)表現(xiàn)、社會(huì)繁榮和生活意義等重要指標(biāo)的權(quán)威性。

????大數(shù)據(jù)有許多好處,不過(guò)我們還需要用“大直覺(jué)”來(lái)完善它。以下是六大理由:

????大數(shù)據(jù)=老大哥?《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)的史蒂夫?洛爾把大數(shù)據(jù)看作美國(guó)管理學(xué)家泰勒的“科學(xué)管理”的傳承。泰勒主義的核心是業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn),而如今我們開(kāi)始衡量快樂(lè)感和幸福感、消費(fèi)偏好、社交關(guān)系、體育活動(dòng)、態(tài)度、情緒、情感、行為和身體機(jī)能——換句話說(shuō),我們?cè)谠u(píng)測(cè)自己的生活。

????當(dāng)然,某種程度上說(shuō),“量化自身”的應(yīng)用程序能讓人們更好地控制自己的決定。然而,如此一來(lái),我們就在自我改善這一想法的驅(qū)使下,把曾經(jīng)私密的領(lǐng)域開(kāi)放給了商業(yè)世界。

????大數(shù)據(jù)不具有社會(huì)性。人類是社會(huì)動(dòng)物。研究顯示,人與人之間的關(guān)系,尤其是友誼與婚姻,是快樂(lè)和自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的關(guān)鍵因素。我們的大腦有著關(guān)心的本能,我們的心臟和思想有著領(lǐng)會(huì)同類并與他們產(chǎn)生共鳴的驚人能力。我們能表現(xiàn)出同情,感受到情緒波動(dòng),察覺(jué)到非語(yǔ)言的細(xì)微暗示,容忍或擁抱,接受與拒絕,愛(ài)與痛,體會(huì)到我們所有的感受,做出不合理的舉動(dòng),喪失自制力。這些人性的關(guān)鍵特質(zhì)受到了里昂?維瑟提爾所稱的“主觀數(shù)字化”的威脅。

????最近的社會(huì)基因研究顯示,數(shù)字過(guò)載不僅降低了我們的生產(chǎn)力,還削弱了我們進(jìn)化出的與他人交流的能力。

????Big Data is big business. Sensors, GPS tracking, math modeling, and artificial intelligence offer companies real-time market insights at massive scale and open the door to unprecedented ways of monitoring, targeting, and measuring employees and customers. Analyst firm Gartner predicts that enterprises adopting Big Data technologies will "outperform competitors by 20 percent in every available financial metric."

????Big Data might well be "the new oil," but I would caution us not to worship it as the new religion. Amidst all the data frenzy, we are not only losing a more holistic view of business but also a part of our humanity. How much space do we leave for creativity if we equate better living with better algorithms?

????I am not a dataphobe, but I am concerned about relying only on data. I am not against quantitative metrics, but I question their authority as the main indicators of business performance, prosperous societies, and meaningful lives.

????Big Data comes with many benefits, but let's complement it with Big Intuition. Here are six reasons why:

????Big Data = Big Brother? The New York Times' Steve Lohr describes Big Data as a descendant of Taylor's "scientific management." Instead of performance in the workplace, which was the focus of Taylorism, we are now measuring happiness and well being, our consumption preferences, social?interactions, physical activities, our attitudes, moods, emotions, behaviors, and bodily functions -- in other words, we are measuring our lives.

????Sure, to some degree, "quantified self" apps may empower people to take more control over their decisions. However, by doing so, we are opening up once-private terrain to the business world, all under the mandate of self-improvement.

????Big Data is not social. We humans are social animals. Research shows that relationships, especially friendship and marriage, are key factors of happiness and fulfillment. Our brains are wired to care, and our hearts and minds have developed an astounding capacity to empathize and sympathize with fellow humans. We can show compassion, sense mood swings, detect subtle non-verbal cues, tolerate or embrace, accept and reject, love and hurt, experience with all of our senses, act irrationally, and lose our self-control. These key traits of our humanity are threatened by the "mathematization of subjectivity," as Leon Wieseltier calls it.

????Recent social genomics studies suggest that not only our productivity, but also our evolutionary capacity to connect with others is diminished by digital overload.

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