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銀行鬧錢荒對中國是好事

銀行鬧錢荒對中國是好事

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-06-27
中國銀行系統(tǒng)眼下經(jīng)歷的錢荒表明,中國政府對金融機構(gòu)施加了相當大的壓力,以推動中國經(jīng)濟的轉(zhuǎn)型,逐漸擺脫對基礎設施建設投資項目和出口的依賴,更多的靠國內(nèi)的消費來拉動經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。全球第二大經(jīng)濟體有望借此步入正軌。

????過去幾周,中國銀行業(yè)出現(xiàn)錢荒,攪亂了市場,投資者擔心中國各銀行的流動性緊縮可能進一步拖累世界第二大經(jīng)濟體的增長。雖然這種情況可能發(fā)生,但其實信貸緊縮對中國和世界其他地區(qū)有利。

????雖然中國的銀行體系并不存在深層次的問題,但它缺乏透明度。過去幾年中影子銀行已經(jīng)迅速崛起:銀行以較低的銀行同業(yè)拆借利率貸得資金,然后再出借給信托公司、保險公司、租賃公司和其他非正式貸款機構(gòu),這些公司和機構(gòu)再向他人提供高風險貸款。

??? 一些分析人士擔心,影子銀行系統(tǒng)掩蓋的高風險壞賬會擊垮銀行,嚴重時甚至可能引發(fā)另一場金融危機,而誰都不希望金融危機再次上演。

????中國政府表示,寬松的貨幣政策將結(jié)束。周一,中國人民銀行(the People's Bank of China)公開宣布稱,各銀行需更加審慎;多年來的寬松信貸和投機應當停下來。

????一周前,央行曾向銀行發(fā)出警告,繼而導致市場恐慌,全球股市急劇下跌。中國各銀行現(xiàn)金緊缺問題顯露,資金短缺導致同業(yè)拆借利率走高。

????資金短缺肯定會造成嚴重損害:雖然大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學家并不認為這個問題會帶來巨大的系統(tǒng)性風險,盡管它會導致一些小規(guī)模的銀行破產(chǎn)。

????資金短缺也可能導致中國經(jīng)濟進一步放緩。但華爾街無需恐慌!中國經(jīng)濟增長放緩不一定是壞事。事實上,它可能表明,中國政府正在將經(jīng)濟引入正軌。

????過去的二十年里,中國經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)了卓越的增長。與美國和其他工業(yè)化國家不同,中國經(jīng)濟的主要驅(qū)動力來自制造業(yè)以及道路、橋梁等大型基礎設施項目投資。美國消費占經(jīng)濟的70%以上,而中國的消費水平較低。更何況,中國生產(chǎn)的大部分產(chǎn)品并不是用于國內(nèi)消費,而是出口至世界其他地區(qū)。

????China's cash shortage has roiled markets over the past few weeks, as investors fear a liquidity squeeze across the nation's banks could further hurt growth in the world's second-largest economy.?While that might likely happen, the credit crunch is actually a good thing for China and the rest of the world.

????China's banking system is opaque, if not deeply troubled. Over the years a shadow industry has quickly risen: Banks borrow from each other at low rates, then lend to a mishmash of trust companies, insurance firms, leasing companies and other informal lenders, which in turn, make riskier loans to others.

????The fear among some analysts is that such a system masks whatever risky and bad loans made -- a problem that could put banks out of business and, worst case, possibly trigger another financial crisis nobody in the world wants to relive.

????But the party of easy money may be over -- at least if you believe the Chinese government. On Monday, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, publicly announced that the country's banks needed to be more prudent; the easy lending and speculation it helped propel for years needed to end.

????Banks were warned a week earlier, which panicked markets and led to a sharp selloff in stocks worldwide. China's banks have been squeezed, and the shortage of cash sent lending rates at which banks borrow from each other way up.

????The cash crunch could certainly do some serious damage: It could cause some smaller banks to go under, although most economists don't think the problem carries huge systemic risks.

????A cash shortage could also further slow China's economy. But don't panic, Wall Street! A slower growing China may not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, it likely signals that China's authorities are finally putting the economy on the right path.

????For the past two decades, China has seen extraordinary growth. Unlike the U.S.and other industrialized countries, China's economy has largely been driven by manufacturing and heavy spending in big infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, and the like. And unlike the U.S, where consumption makes up more than 70% of the economy, Chinese consumers don't spend nearly as much. More than that, they don't buy the bulk of what the country produces; it's sold to the rest of the world by way of exports.

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