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銀行鬧錢(qián)荒對(duì)中國(guó)是好事

銀行鬧錢(qián)荒對(duì)中國(guó)是好事

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-06-27
中國(guó)銀行系統(tǒng)眼下經(jīng)歷的錢(qián)荒表明,中國(guó)政府對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)施加了相當(dāng)大的壓力,以推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)型,逐漸擺脫對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資項(xiàng)目和出口的依賴(lài),更多的靠國(guó)內(nèi)的消費(fèi)來(lái)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體有望借此步入正軌。

????中國(guó)正努力改變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式;當(dāng)前的增長(zhǎng)方式由于包括嚴(yán)重的污染問(wèn)題在內(nèi)的種種原因已經(jīng)難以為繼。這對(duì)于像中國(guó)三一重工(Sany Heavy Industry)和卡特彼勒公司(Caterpillar)(位于伊利諾伊州皮奧里亞)這樣的企業(yè)而言不是什么好消息,因?yàn)檫@些公司指望著受益于中國(guó)建筑行業(yè)的爆炸性增長(zhǎng)。雖然中國(guó)央行將擰緊資金龍頭的消息激起了市場(chǎng)反應(yīng),但此舉關(guān)乎中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡的計(jì)劃,即(像美國(guó)一樣)主要由消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)增長(zhǎng),減少對(duì)制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè)的依賴(lài)。

????它肯定會(huì)減緩中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,但在耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)研究員、前摩根士丹利亞洲(Morgan Stanley Asia)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯蒂芬?羅奇看來(lái),這是一個(gè)好的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。

????最近羅奇在《評(píng)論匯編》(Project Syndicate)雜志撰文寫(xiě)道,只要中國(guó)能重新平衡其經(jīng)濟(jì),即使增長(zhǎng)速度放慢,仍然可以創(chuàng)造足夠的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),同時(shí)減少貧困。

????因?yàn)橹袊?guó)舊的增長(zhǎng)模式嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè),這些行業(yè)更需要機(jī)器、而不是人員,所以創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)少于以服務(wù)為導(dǎo)向的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。比如,一個(gè)廣告公司依賴(lài)于員工的創(chuàng)意,而一個(gè)制造廠依賴(lài)機(jī)器的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)速度。羅奇提供了一個(gè)有趣的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù):服務(wù)業(yè)在單位國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)比制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè)要多35%。這種狀態(tài)很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。正因如此華爾街總在討論的一個(gè)話題是,中國(guó)將會(huì)“軟著陸”還是“硬著陸”。中國(guó)需要找到一個(gè)微妙的平衡,在實(shí)施改革的同時(shí)避免金融動(dòng)蕩。

????即使市場(chǎng)對(duì)此出現(xiàn)反應(yīng),羅奇表示中國(guó)央行傳達(dá)的信息最終是積極的:“短期內(nèi)會(huì)帶來(lái)痛苦,因?yàn)樗o金融機(jī)構(gòu)施加了較大壓力,但這說(shuō)明政府真的下定決心改變不可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式?!?/p>

????周二,中國(guó)央行安撫緊張不安的市場(chǎng),表示將引導(dǎo)銀行間利率趨于合理。目前還不清楚利率將處于什么水平,但這番番言論似乎已經(jīng)使投資者平靜下來(lái)。周一,隔夜貸款利率從6.6%下降到5.8%。6月之前,這個(gè)利率更低,約為2%至3%。

????隨著中國(guó)繼續(xù)實(shí)施改革,未來(lái)可能還會(huì)出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)性事件。但它們可能利大于弊。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????China is trying to change the way it grows; it can't continue for a host of reasons, including huge pollution problems. This is bad news for companies like China-based Sany Heavy Industry and Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar (CAT) that have banked on the exploding growth of China's construction industry. And while news that China's central bank will narrow its money spigot has caused markets to react, the move ties to the country's broader plans to rebalance growth so that it's driven more by U.S.-style consumption and less on manufacturing and construction.

????That will surely slow down the Chinese economy -- a welcomed development if you ask experts like Stephen Roach, a Yale University fellow and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia.

????So long as China rebalances its economy, it can still create enough jobs and reduce poverty with slower growth, Roach wrote recently in Project Syndicate.

????That's because China's old model relied heavily on manufacturing and construction, which needed many more machines than people and didn't produce nearly as many jobs as a more service-oriented economy. It's the difference between -- say, an advertising agency that depend on the creative minds of workers vs. a manufacturing plant that count on the speed of machines. Roach offers an interesting statistic: China's services sector requires about 35% more jobs per unit of GDP than do manufacturing and construction.?Achieving this is tricky. And that's partly why we always hear Wall Street ask if China is in for a "soft" or "hard landing." China needs to find a delicate balance between implementing reforms while avoiding financial turmoil.

????Even if markets reacted, Roach says the message delivered by China's central bank is ultimately positive: "It's painful short-term because it puts a lot of pressure on financial institutions, but it's a visible sign of a government that is really determined to change the course of unsustainable growth."

????On Tuesday, China's central bank soothed jittery markets, saying that it would guide interbank interest rates to reasonable levels. It's unclear what those rates might look like, but the remarks seemed to have calmed investors. The overnight lending rate fell to 5.8% from 6.6% Monday. Before June rates were lower -- at around 2% to 3%.

????As China continues to make changes, we'll probably see volatile spurts again. But know it likely has more to do with good news than bad.

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