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給埃及新統(tǒng)治者的9條建議

給埃及新統(tǒng)治者的9條建議

Mohamed A. El-Erian 2013-07-09
埃及預(yù)計即將迎來新的統(tǒng)治者。無論是誰,要想帶領(lǐng)這個古老的國度走向穩(wěn)定和繁榮,都必須從埃及的歷史和近幾年的現(xiàn)實中汲取教訓(xùn)。

????始終參與青年運動不僅值得,而且至關(guān)重要。

????兩年半的時間里,埃及的有志青年第二次出色地組織并領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了遍及全國的民眾起義。他們再一次成為了面對無數(shù)可能性的變革因子;而無論在規(guī)模、范圍或時間節(jié)點上,他們的成果也再一次出乎大多數(shù)“專家”的預(yù)料。

????埃及的青年運動再一次彰顯了令人欽佩的遠(yuǎn)見、協(xié)調(diào)力和紀(jì)律。在2011年革命中,青年們把當(dāng)時的總統(tǒng)穆巴拉克趕下臺,如果他們要重復(fù)這一做法,接下來幾周他們將傾向于功成身退,把統(tǒng)治的鑰匙交給埃及的長輩們。畢竟埃及是一個傳統(tǒng)的尊老社會。(我在20世紀(jì)60年代的埃及長大,常聽到一句俗話:“大你一天的人比你多一年的知識積累?!保?/p>

????埃及的統(tǒng)治精英一直未能恰當(dāng)?shù)貐⑴c到青年運動中去,更別說從他們的能量和遠(yuǎn)見中汲取養(yǎng)分。相反,他們傾向于按部就班,墨守陳規(guī)。在統(tǒng)治過程中,他們屢次剝奪社會中非常重要的一部分人群的政治參與權(quán)利,從而損害了國家的未來和活力。

????這一次,青年運動在治理過程的積極參與尤為關(guān)鍵,而且長輩們要能夠并且愿意從根本上接受他們的參與。否則,改革的目標(biāo):“面包、尊嚴(yán)和社會公正”仍然無法實現(xiàn)。

????包容、合作、透明的治理。

????在這個被某種無論是國內(nèi)或國外“法老”統(tǒng)治了好多個世紀(jì)的國家,這樣的訴求也不會自然發(fā)生。而在由軍隊控制下的過渡期,這一點更是充滿了挑戰(zhàn)。

????埃及現(xiàn)在和未來的治理者都應(yīng)認(rèn)識到,如果大多數(shù)人不能迅速團結(jié)到一個得到廣泛認(rèn)同的國家愿景下,這個國家仍將繼續(xù)在困境中掙扎。事實上,如果埃及希望有機會將暴力最小化,迅速完成關(guān)鍵性的革命轉(zhuǎn)折,實現(xiàn)從廢除壓迫的過去到建立更美好未來的轉(zhuǎn)變,國家政治和社會的快速調(diào)和將發(fā)揮舉足輕重的作用。

????避免越界的誘惑。

????前三屆政府以為,它們能通過偏袒某一人群,對其他人則從上向下施加規(guī)定來統(tǒng)治國家,這個危險的想法使它們最終被推翻。埃及目前和未來的政府不應(yīng)僅僅尋求平衡,而且要努力從國家政治和社會復(fù)興的角度接受一系列觀點。

????Consistently engaging the youth movements is not just desirable; it is absolutely critical.

????For the second time in two and a half years, it is the committed youth of Egypt who brilliantly organized and led a country-wide popular uprising. Once again, they were the change agents facing enormous odds; and once again they delivered outcomes that far exceeded most "experts'" predictions, whether in scale, scope or timing.

????Egypt's youth movements have again displayed admirable vision, coordination and discipline. If they were to repeat the experience of the 2011 revolution that ousted President Mubarak, their inclination in the next few weeks would be to again step back and turn the governance keys to the country's elders. After all, Egypt is a traditional, age-respecting society. (Growing up there in the 1960s, I frequently heard the popular saying: "the one older than you by a day knows more than you by a year.")

????For their part, Egyptian ruling elites have continually failed to properly engage youth movements, let alone benefit from their energy and vision. Instead, they tend to stick with?old and tired formulas and practices. In the process, they have repeatedly disenfranchised a very important segment of society, and thereby undermined future and vibrancy of the country.

????This time around it is critical that the youth movement remain actively involved in the governance process; and that the older generations be able and willing them to materially incorporate them. Otherwise, the objective of the revolution -- "bread, dignity and social justice" -- will continue to prove elusive.

????Govern inclusively, collaboratively and transparently.

????Again, this does not come naturally to a country that for too many centuries was traditionally ruled by some type of "pharaoh," whether domestic or foreign. It is also challenging in a transitional phase that is led by the military.

????Today and tomorrow's rulers need to realize that the country will continue to struggle if the majority of Egyptians do not quickly unite under a well-communicated national vision. Indeed, a rapid process of national political and social reconciliation is essential if the country is to have any chance of minimizing violence and rapidly completing the critical revolutionary pivot: from dismantling a repressive past to building a better future.

????Avoid the temptation of overreach.

????The three prior governments fell victim to the dangerous notion that they can rule by favoring a certain segment of the population while imposing dictates from above on the rest. Egypt's current and future governments need to do a much better job at being balanced, embracing a spectrum of view in a national political and social revival effort.

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