????蘋果（Apple）的鼎盛時(shí)期是否已經(jīng)過去，或者它只是暫時(shí)休息一下，之后將延續(xù)驚人的快速增長和舉世矚目的創(chuàng)新？對(duì)于這個(gè)問題，要得出明確的答案似乎是不可能完成的任務(wù)。畢竟，蘋果對(duì)自己的發(fā)展規(guī)劃始終守口如瓶，甚至禁止人們隨意討論這個(gè)話題。而且，蘋果新任CEO很少公開講話，即使有也非常謹(jǐn)慎，很少透露太多內(nèi)容。面對(duì)這樣一家公司，如何才能預(yù)測(cè)它的發(fā)展軌跡？

????要完成這個(gè)不可能完成的任務(wù)，解決方案不是要做出一種選擇，而是考慮獨(dú)立論據(jù)的兩個(gè)方面。兩種說法都有非常有效的證據(jù)，而且每一種說法在那些技術(shù)精英當(dāng)中都不乏狂熱的支持者。即使蘋果內(nèi)部的資深人員也存在不同意見，有人認(rèn)為這家公司的卓越必將幫助它再次取得勝利，但其他人卻看到太多衰退的跡象，對(duì)這家公司的信心開始動(dòng)搖。

????但現(xiàn)實(shí)生活只存在一種可能性。那么我是什么觀點(diǎn)？

????絕大多數(shù)證據(jù)、常識(shí)和直覺都表明，蘋果已經(jīng)觸頂?shù)恼f法更令人信服。把蘋果看作一個(gè)跟隨者聽起來有些刺耳，但實(shí)際上蘋果iTunes Radio服務(wù)、扁平的手機(jī)軟件設(shè)計(jì)、以及依然無法令人滿意的在線地圖等等，卻都給人蘋果就是跟隨者的印象。蘋果公司本不應(yīng)該在任何事情上跟隨任何人。如果蘋果推出更低價(jià)的手機(jī)，確實(shí)能增加收入。但一家經(jīng)常攻擊低端產(chǎn)品的高端品牌這么做要承擔(dān)巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果公司開發(fā)可穿戴計(jì)算設(shè)備，谷歌（Google）、捷波朗（Jawbone）甚至其合作伙伴耐克（Nike）早都已經(jīng)走在了前面。

????但正如我所說的，現(xiàn)在也有許多更正面的數(shù)據(jù)。本文的印刷版剛剛付印時(shí)，便有各種報(bào)道顯示出蘋果復(fù)蘇的跡象。蘋果在日本申請(qǐng)iWatch專利表明它對(duì)可穿戴計(jì)算設(shè)備非常認(rèn)真。蘋果將與時(shí)代華納有線電視（Time Warner Cable）商談電視內(nèi)容權(quán)利。蘋果此舉是為目前的Apple TV，或者是像粉絲們希望的那樣，為了等待已久的iTelevision？后來又有消息稱，蘋果聘用前時(shí)裝品牌高管保羅?蒂尼維為公司副總裁，負(fù)責(zé)特別項(xiàng)目，還招募了Hulu公司高管彼得?迪賽德，協(xié)助公司進(jìn)行內(nèi)容談判。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????The task at first seemed impossible: Determine if Apple's best days are behind it or if it's merely taking a break from breakneck growth and world-beating innovation. After all, how to figure out the trajectory of a company that is so tight-lipped with its plans, which prohibits its people from talking freely, even amongst themselves, a company whose new CEO speaks rarely and then in crisp, measured sentences designed to reveal as little as possible?

????The solution to an undoable task ultimately was not to choose, or rather to take both sides in separate arguments. There's an equally valid case to be made here, and each argument has passionate adherents among the techno-elite. Even among Apple veterans opinions are split, with some believing the excellence of the organization will enable it to win again and others seeing too many signs of decay to keep the faith.

????But you can't really have it both ways in life. So what do I think?

????The preponderance of the evidence, common sense and gut instinct all suggest the Apple-has-peaked argument is the stronger of the two. It is jarring to see Apple (AAPL) as a follower, but that's what it looks like with its iTunes Radio service, with its flat mobile software design, with its still sub-optimal online maps. Apple isn't supposed to follow anyone on anything. If Apple makes a cheaper phone, it will boost revenues. But a premium brand that attacks the low end does so at its peril. If it moves into wearable computers, it will do so only after Google (GOOG), Jawbone, or its own partner Nike (NKE) already have shown the way.

????As I said, though, there are plenty of more positive data points too. Just since the print edition of this article went to press, reports surfaced that shows signs of light for Apple. A patent application in Japan for an iWatch suggests Apple is serious about wearables. Apple supposedly is talking to Time Warner Cable (TWC) about streaming rights. Is this just for Apple TV as it currently exists, or is it for the long-awaited iTelevision, as the fanboys hope? Then comes news that Apple has hired fashion executive Paul Deneve as a vice-president working on special projects as well as Hulu executive Pete Distad to craft content deals.