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高盛利潤(rùn)翻番難阻股價(jià)下挫

高盛利潤(rùn)翻番難阻股價(jià)下挫

Stephen Gandel 2013-07-18
受到股票和債券發(fā)行激增的推動(dòng),高盛今年第二季度利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)一倍多,達(dá)到了19億美元。不過,盡管高盛利潤(rùn)激增,但仍然不足以消除投資者對(duì)于客戶退縮、利率上升和收益動(dòng)蕩的擔(dān)憂。高盛發(fā)布第二季度業(yè)績(jī)之后,它的股價(jià)反而下挫2美元還多。

????受股票和債券發(fā)行激增的推動(dòng),高盛(Goldman Sachs)二季度利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)一倍多,達(dá)到了19億美元。交易收入較上年同期也有所增長(zhǎng),但低于一季度的水平,可能反映了近期利率上漲導(dǎo)致的客戶退縮。

????“當(dāng)季客戶的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)喜好大幅波動(dòng),”高盛首席財(cái)務(wù)官哈維?舒瓦茨在該行的業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議上告訴分析師和投資者?!拔覀兊目蛻粽跈?quán)衡,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)回升能否抵消其他地區(qū)的放緩?!?/p>

????高盛自身看起來(lái)已經(jīng)抓住了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)改善和股市回暖的機(jī)遇。二季度,這家銀行的股票承銷和交易傭金收入同比分別大增55%和25%。債券市場(chǎng)承銷傭金收入也增長(zhǎng)了40%。高盛自營(yíng)股票投資(部分投資于私有公司)當(dāng)季也貢獻(xiàn)了5億美元的增長(zhǎng)。

????整體而言,高盛二季度每股收益3.70美元,大大高于分析師們此前預(yù)期的2.82美元。二季度收入同比增長(zhǎng)30%至86億美元。而且,此次利潤(rùn)大增出現(xiàn)在高盛似乎已經(jīng)決定上調(diào)早已不菲的員工薪酬之際。今年迄今為止,高盛已將一筆付給31,700名員工的80多億美元薪酬費(fèi)用入賬,相當(dāng)于人均252,366美元。這筆錢包括福利、薪水以及尚未實(shí)際支付的獎(jiǎng)金,且這個(gè)數(shù)字高于去年上半年的226,006美元。

????但高盛的利潤(rùn)變化也表明,金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)近五年后,在美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)通過里程碑式的金融改革、對(duì)美國(guó)大銀行可承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行限制近三年后,華爾街業(yè)務(wù)的波動(dòng)性特征依然明顯。雖然業(yè)績(jī)同比上漲,但高盛幾乎所有業(yè)務(wù)的表現(xiàn)都不如今年一季度,高盛一季度每股收益達(dá)到了4.29美元。

????這樣的業(yè)績(jī)波動(dòng),以及利率上升可能繼續(xù)抑制投資者活動(dòng)并阻礙達(dá)成交易的擔(dān)憂,看起來(lái)依然讓投資者望而卻步。周二早間高盛發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)后,今年迄今漲幅近30%的高盛股票收盤下跌了2.76美元,下滑至160.24美元。

????而且,高盛利潤(rùn)當(dāng)中較大一部分仍來(lái)自于自有資金投資業(yè)務(wù)。高盛稱,在限制大銀行高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)交易的沃克爾法則(Volcker rule)以及其他多德-弗蘭克(Dodd-Frank)改革措施全面實(shí)施后,很多這些所謂的自營(yíng)交易仍然是被允許進(jìn)行的。但最終的法規(guī)將對(duì)利潤(rùn)產(chǎn)生多大影響仍然是個(gè)未知數(shù)。正如大家所預(yù)計(jì)的,同時(shí)也和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)擔(dān)憂的那樣,這一點(diǎn)也會(huì)加劇高盛的利潤(rùn)波動(dòng)。

????高盛自營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)二季度收入較一季度驟減近三分之一,下降到了14億美元,但比起2012年二季度的2億美元相比仍然猛增了590%。

????與此同時(shí),高盛二季度業(yè)績(jī)也顯示出,這家公司正在努力將自身重塑為一家更傳統(tǒng)的銀行。高盛的貸款和債券市場(chǎng)交易業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)造了6.58億美元收入,幾乎是其一年前收入2.22億美元的近三倍。但高盛拒絕透露這些收入中有多少來(lái)自利息收入,多少來(lái)自債券交易。

????事實(shí)上,高盛守口如瓶的企業(yè)文化在業(yè)績(jī)發(fā)布后的投資者電話會(huì)議上展露無(wú)遺,同時(shí)還引發(fā)了一些爭(zhēng)議。

????Goldman Sachs's profits in the second quarter more than doubled from a year earlier to $1.9 billion, propelled by a surge in stock and bond offerings. Trading revenues were up as well from a year ago, but down from the first quarter, perhaps showing how the recent rise in interest rates prompted clients to retreat.

????"Client risk appetite definitely fluctuated during the quarter," Goldman's CFO Harvey Schwartz told analysts and investors on a conference call about the bank's earnings. "Our clients are assessing whether improvements in the U.S. economy will offset the slowdown elsewhere."

????Goldman itself appeared to be able to capitalize on the improving U.S. economy and the rising stock market. Fees from stock market underwriting and trading rose 55% and 25% from the same period a year ago. Bond market underwriting fees were also up 40%. And Goldman's own equity investments, some of which are in private companies, generated an additional $500 million in gains in the quarter.

????In all, Goldman's earnings translated to $3.70 per share. That was far better than the $2.82 analysts had expected the firm to earn. Revenue was up 30% from a year ago to $8.6 billion. And the big bottom-line jump happened even though Goldman (GS) appears to have decided to up the pay of its already richly rewarded employees. So far this year, Goldman has booked a compensation expense, which includes benefits and salaries as well as yet-to-actually-be-paid-out bonuses, of over $8 billion to pay 31,700 employees, equal to $252,366 each. That's up from $226,006 in the first half of last year.

????But Goldman's bottom line also showed how volatile the business of Wall Street remains nearly five years after the financial crisis, and almost three years after Congress passed landmark financial reform that was supposed to limit the risks that the largest U.S. banks could take. Despite being up from a year ago, nearly all of Goldman's businesses were down from the first three months of the year, when the company earned $4.29 a share.

????That volatility, and the fear that rising interest rates will continue to temper investor activity and hamper deals, appeared to spook investors. Goldman's shares, which had been up nearly 30% this year, closed down $2.76 to $160.24, following the firm's morning earnings announcement.

????What's more, a good portion of Goldman's profits continue to come from the unit that invests the firm's own money. Goldman says much of this so-called proprietary trading will still be allowed after the Volcker rule, which is supposed to limit risky trading at the big banks, and other Dodd-Frank reforms are fully implemented. But how much the final rules will curtail these profits is still in question. It also adds, as you would expect and regulators worry, to Goldman's profit swings.

????Revenue from prop trading fell by nearly a third in the second quarter from the first three months of the year to $1.4 billion. But that was up 590% from the $200 million Goldman made from the same business the second three months of 2012.

????At the same time, Goldman's second-quarter earnings also showed how the firm is trying to remake itself into more of a traditional bank. Goldman generated $658 million from lending and debt market transactions. That was nearly triple the $222 million the firm made in the same area a year ago. Goldman, however, declined to detail how much of those revenues were from collecting interest payments, and how much was from bond trading.

????Indeed, Goldman's tight-lipped culture came out in a conference call with investors following the earnings release, creating some contentious moments.

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