????公關(guān)藝術(shù)中，先發(fā)制人是最便捷的利器之一。如果企業(yè)能搶在新聞——尤其是那些不怎么有利的新聞之前采取行動(dòng)，就能控制輿論的基調(diào)，甚至操縱輿論為公司的優(yōu)勢(shì)鼓吹造勢(shì)。

????微軟公司（Microsoft）本月初宣布的雄心勃勃的重組計(jì)劃看來(lái)就像是一次先發(fā)制人的行動(dòng)。這次重組已經(jīng)開(kāi)展有一段時(shí)間了，因此并非重組本身，而是宣布重組的時(shí)機(jī)——即在微軟準(zhǔn)備發(fā)布遠(yuǎn)低于華爾街預(yù)期的營(yíng)收的前一周——成為先發(fā)之舉。

????目前還不清楚這個(gè)策略這次是否會(huì)奏效。實(shí)際上，微軟可能倒是為先發(fā)制人會(huì)怎樣誤入歧途樹(shù)立了反面榜樣。它并沒(méi)有引導(dǎo)輿論關(guān)注微軟的未來(lái)（也就是一家科技巨頭如何重振旗鼓掌控未來(lái)），同時(shí)拋開(kāi)微軟的過(guò)去（也就是一個(gè)巨無(wú)霸如何被日薄西山的桌面計(jì)算市場(chǎng)牢牢捆住了手腳），而是讓人覺(jué)得微軟似乎陷入了一片充滿(mǎn)不確定性的真空地帶。

????7月11日，微軟公布了市場(chǎng)期待已久的重組計(jì)劃，旨在將微軟多個(gè)各自為戰(zhàn)的領(lǐng)域整合到一個(gè)更為統(tǒng)一的架構(gòu)中。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直是微軟核心技術(shù)的多套操作系統(tǒng)將被整合到同一個(gè)技術(shù)部門(mén)中。硬件設(shè)備和企業(yè)應(yīng)用也將各自納入一個(gè)相應(yīng)的部門(mén)。計(jì)劃宣布后的幾天里，有消息稱(chēng)，微軟正將發(fā)展重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)到云服務(wù)、移動(dòng)設(shè)備和應(yīng)用這類(lèi)新興市場(chǎng)上來(lái)。結(jié)果，微軟公司股票應(yīng)聲上漲了5%。

????目前，人們正為蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）未來(lái)將何去何從爭(zhēng)執(zhí)不下。因此，微軟這次重組被拿來(lái)與蘋(píng)果相提并論，不過(guò)這不重要。微軟這次重組采用了“幫助人們完全實(shí)現(xiàn)潛能”的戰(zhàn)略，這話(huà)聽(tīng)起來(lái)更像是人生導(dǎo)師的職位描述——這也不重要。重要的是，微軟的股價(jià)飆升到了近六年來(lái)的最高位，這家公司的前景看起來(lái)也比以前更加光明。

????但隨后，利潤(rùn)數(shù)據(jù)出爐了。

????上周四，微軟稱(chēng)去年第四財(cái)季的收入同比增加10%，達(dá)到199億美元，同時(shí)每股凈收益為59美分。而分析師普遍預(yù)計(jì)收入為207億美元，每股利潤(rùn)為75美分。所有人都知道臺(tái)式機(jī)和筆記本需求疲軟讓微軟業(yè)績(jī)受損，但他們顯然低估了這種損害的嚴(yán)重程度。而微軟表示，盡管針對(duì)企業(yè)的PC出貨量實(shí)現(xiàn)了個(gè)位數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)，但針對(duì)消費(fèi)者的PC出貨量卻下降了20%。

????雪上加霜的是，市場(chǎng)對(duì)微軟的平板電腦Surface的需求始終不振，迫使微軟公司最終減記了9億美元的存貨。這筆極少有投資者料到的減記使每股凈收益又少了7美分。而微軟將Surface RT的售價(jià)降低了150美元，下調(diào)到349美元，同時(shí)對(duì)“相關(guān)部件和配件”進(jìn)行了調(diào)整，也增加了減記值。

????不過(guò)財(cái)報(bào)中還是有一些亮點(diǎn)的：首席財(cái)務(wù)官艾米?胡德指出，消費(fèi)者對(duì)Office 365、Outlook.com、Skype和Xbox LIVE的需求看漲。但PC和Surface前景黯淡的消息似乎讓這些亮點(diǎn)也都黯然失色了?；ㄆ旒瘓F(tuán)（Citigroup）的一位分析師毫不客氣地稱(chēng)這一業(yè)績(jī)?yōu)椤坝洃浿凶钤愀獾囊粋€(gè)財(cái)季”。

????Preemption is one of the handiest tools in the art of public relations. If a company can get ahead of news -- especially not-so-good new -- it can control the tone of the conversation and even guide it in a direction that plays up the company's strengths.

????The ambitious restructuring that Microsoft (MSFT) announced earlier this month looks to have been a preemptive move. Not the restructuring itself, which has been in the works for some time, but the timing of its announcement: a week before Microsoft was going to announce earnings that fell short of what Wall Street had been expecting.

????It's not clear the strategy worked this time. In fact, Microsoft may have offered a case study in how preemption can go wrong. Rather than steering the conversation toward Microsoft's future (a tech giant refitted to better handle what's coming) and away from the past (a juggernaut tied down to the aging market of desktop computing), Microsoft appears to have entered a vacuum of uncertainty.

????On July 11, Microsoft announced a long-awaited restructuring that sought to turn its scattered fiefdoms into a more integrated confederation. Myriad operating systems, long the company's core technology, would be consolidated under one engineering division. Hardware devices would be grouped in another, enterprise in yet another. Over the several following days, the stock gained 5% on the news that the company was shifting its focus on growing markets like cloud services, mobile devices, and apps.

????Never mind that the restructuring drew comparisons to Apple (AAPL) at a time when Apple's future is a matter of debate. Never mind that the single strategy the company was uniting behind -- "to help people realize their full potential" -- sounded more like the job description of a life coach. Microsoft's stock was drifting up to its highest level in nearly six years. The future looked brighter for the company than it had in some time.

????Then came earnings.

????Microsoft said last Thursday that revenue rose 10% on year to $19.9 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, while net income came in at 59 cents a share. Analysts had been expecting $20.7 billion in revenue and 75 cents a share in profit. Everyone knew that the weak demand for desktops and laptops was hurting Microsoft, but they underestimated the damage. Microsoft said that, while shipments of those PCs to companies rose in the single digits, consumer PC shipments fell 20%.

????On top of that, demand for Microsoft's Surface tablets has been disappointing enough to prompt the company to write down $900 million in inventory. That writedown, which few if any investors were expecting, deleted 7 cents a share from its net income. Microsoft cut Surface RT prices by $150 to $349, and adjustments to "related parts and accessories" also added to the writedown.

????There were bright spots too: Office 365, Outlook.com, Skype, and Xbox LIVE are seeing increased demand from consumers, CFO Amy Hood pointed out. But the gloom of the PC and Surface news seemed to obscure those bright spots. An analyst at Citigroup bluntly called it "the sloppiest quarter in memory."