????展望前景，短期內(nèi)也不會(huì)有任何起色。胡德警告稱，在接下來這一財(cái)季，戴爾公司（Dell）和惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）這類PC廠商貢獻(xiàn)的Windows收入將下降約15%。高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）則預(yù)計(jì)，平板電腦和智能手機(jī)的價(jià)格不斷走低，以及新興市場(chǎng)的盜版問題都將對(duì)未來收益造成嚴(yán)重影響。而由于興建云計(jì)算基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和Surface的加工制造問題，銷售成本還將居高不下。如果微軟還打算繼續(xù)投入重金推廣Surface，營(yíng)銷費(fèi)用也將持續(xù)高企。

????投資者對(duì)待這類消息的態(tài)度就是毫不留情地用腳投票。有幾位分析師下調(diào)了微軟股票的評(píng)級(jí)。上周四微軟股票收盤價(jià)為35.44美元，周五就以32.40美元的低價(jià)開盤。當(dāng)天交易結(jié)束時(shí)，則進(jìn)一步下跌至31.40美元，幾乎將三個(gè)月的穩(wěn)定上漲一筆勾銷。一天之中，微軟股票就下跌了11.4%，公司市值損失了340億美元。換句話說，如果雅虎公司（Yahoo）的市值也損失了這么多，那它就等于一錢不值了。諸如此類的壞消息都讓重組聲明陷于不利境地?；蛟S有人認(rèn)為一次雄心勃勃的重組就能扭轉(zhuǎn)目前這些讓人擔(dān)心的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)。但一切這樣樂觀看法都會(huì)被一個(gè)顧慮所抵消，即微軟要完成這次大膽重組將耗時(shí)數(shù)月，期間它必然會(huì)遭遇諸多困難。就算是它成功完成了重組，也沒人敢保證微軟的全新架構(gòu)就能提高它的效率。

????微軟將煥然一新、業(yè)務(wù)更為聚焦，這本來是讓人充滿希望的好消息，但一個(gè)業(yè)績(jī)不佳的財(cái)季，加之短期內(nèi)復(fù)蘇無望卻讓這個(gè)希望立刻破滅了。大家不禁會(huì)想，如果微軟在收益報(bào)告發(fā)布之后再宣布重組的消息，它的日子是不是就會(huì)好過些，因?yàn)檫@樣它至少還能辯稱：看，我們依然掌控著大局，我們還有辦法。

????實(shí)際上，這些好壞參半的消息已讓微軟的前景比任何時(shí)候都更不明朗。目前只有為數(shù)不多的瑞銀（UBS）和野村證券（Nomura）的分析師還力挺微軟股票，他們預(yù)計(jì)態(tài)度積極的股東將會(huì)推動(dòng)微軟采取有利于投資者的行動(dòng)。確實(shí)，上周五路透社（Reuters）報(bào)道稱，微軟正與這樣一個(gè)投資者商談加盟董事會(huì)的事宜。微軟的巨變才剛剛掀開帷幕，只是這次它可能要借助公司外部的力量來推動(dòng)了。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Looking ahead, things weren't any brighter in the near term. Hood warned that Windows revenue from PC manufacturers like Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) would decline by around 15% in the coming quarter. Goldman Sachs predicted that lower prices of tablets and smartphones and piracy in emerging markets would weigh on future earnings. Cost of goods sold will stay high because of cloud infrastructure and Surface manufacturing. And if Microsoft keeps spending on promoting the Surface, marketing costs will stay high as well.

????Investors took the news pretty hard. Several analysts downgraded the stock. Microsoft shares, which closed at $35.44 on Thursday, opened at $32.40 Friday and by the end of trading had sunk further to $31.40, erasing nearly three months of steady gains. In one day, Microsoft dropped 11.4%, losing $34 billion in market value. Put another way, if Yahoo (YHOO) lost that much market value, it would be worthless.

????All that bad news took the wind out of the restructuring announcement. Any optimism that an ambitious restructuring would reverse these worrisome trends longer-term was offset by a concern that, in the months it would take for Microsoft to complete its ambitious turnaround, it would have to navigate some rough waters. And even then, there's no assurance the new Microsoft structure will make it more efficient.

????The hopeful news about a new, more focused Microsoft was undone by the grim sight of a messy financial quarter, with no clear turnaround in sight. You have to wonder if Microsoft would be better off had it announced the restructuring after the earnings report, so it could argue: Look, we have this under control. We're taking care of it.

????As it is, both pieces of news have left Microsoft's future looking more uncertain than ever. Among the few voices arguing for the stock were analysts at UBS and Nomura, who predictedshareholder activists would start agitating for moves that benefit investors. Sure enough, late Friday Reuters reported that Microsoft is talking with one such investor about a board seat. Big changes are only beginning at Microsoft, only now they may start coming from outside the company.