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資深擁躉不看好蘋果遠(yuǎn)期前景

資深擁躉不看好蘋果遠(yuǎn)期前景

Brian O'Keefe 2013年07月25日
對(duì)沖基金Coatue Management經(jīng)理菲利普?拉方特一直看好蘋果,不過,在今年的財(cái)富科技頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)期間,他發(fā)言稱,蘋果公司的前景已經(jīng)不那么令人看好了。不過,他更不看好英特爾。他說,不管多少錢一股,他都不會(huì)買英特爾股票。

????一位長(zhǎng)期看好蘋果(Apple)的人士現(xiàn)在好像沒那么看好蘋果了。

????日前在美國(guó)科羅拉多州阿斯彭的《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)科技頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)上,對(duì)沖基金Coatue Management經(jīng)理菲利普?拉方特被問到有關(guān)蘋果公司前景時(shí),他的回答充其量也只能算是不冷不熱。截至3月末,蘋果股票在這家資產(chǎn)規(guī)模79億美元的基金持倉(cāng)中占比6.71%,排第五位。

????幾個(gè)月前,拉方特還在對(duì)彭博電視(Bloomberg TV)說,無論從什么標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看,蘋果的股價(jià)都很便宜。

????但此次在科技頭腦風(fēng)暴大會(huì)上被問到蘋果是否有光明前景時(shí),拉方特說:“這只股票的價(jià)格反映出很大的不確定性,不知道這家公司最好的日子是否已經(jīng)過去?!彼赋?,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的平板電腦和智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)早已飽和,他很擔(dān)憂。另外,蘋果總是堅(jiān)持在公司內(nèi)部開發(fā)新技術(shù),他不知道將來它還能不能這樣做?!疤O果就像是任何東西都必須自己發(fā)明出來,”拉方特說?!斑@一點(diǎn)真讓我擔(dān)心。”

????素有“小虎”之稱的拉方特是老虎基金(Tiger Management)經(jīng)理朱利安?羅伯遜的門生,他曾表示,投資科技股實(shí)際上相當(dāng)簡(jiǎn)單。他努力找出大趨勢(shì),然后進(jìn)行押注。當(dāng)前他看好的一大主題是家庭數(shù)據(jù)容量的增長(zhǎng)。在提供這種大容量的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中,“我們認(rèn)為有線電視公司具有優(yōu)勢(shì)?!庇捎趯?duì)LTE服務(wù)的需求,他還看好手機(jī)基站業(yè)務(wù)。

????他不看好的領(lǐng)域有哪些呢?他的回答指向蘋果的核心業(yè)務(wù)?!拔覀儺?dāng)前不太喜歡的主題是手機(jī)和平板電腦的制造業(yè)務(wù),”拉方特說?!暗珒?nèi)容方面,我們很喜歡。每個(gè)人都有一個(gè)屏幕,他們希望看到更多的內(nèi)容?!苯Y(jié)論:“內(nèi)容,移動(dòng)寬帶,看好。硬件以及任何與電腦相關(guān)的業(yè)務(wù),不看好?!?/p>

????蘋果股東聊可慰藉的是,相比蘋果,現(xiàn)在至少還有一只股票拉方特更不看好。拉方特說:“不管股價(jià)多少,我都不會(huì)買英特爾(Intel)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????One longtime Apple bull doesn't sound so bullish on Apple now.

????Appearing at Fortune's Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colo., hedge fund manager Phillippe Laffont of Coatue Management sounded lukewarm at best when asked about Apple's (AAPL) prospects. At the end of March, Apple represented 6.71% of the $7.9 billion fund, good for the fifth largest position.

????A few months ago, Laffont told Bloomberg TV that Apple's stock was cheap by any measure.

????But when asked at Brainstorm Tech whether Apple has a bright future, Laffont said that "the stock reflects great uncertainty about whether the best days are over." The fact that the markets for tablets and smartphones are already saturated in developed markets, he said, concerns him. As well as the fact that Apple has alway been intent on developing new technology in-house -- a luxury that he's not sure the company can afford anymore. "Apple just seems like everything has to be invented there," said Laffont. "That gets me really worried."

????Laffont, known as a "Tiger Cub" because he is a protege of legendary hedge fund manager Julian Robertson of Tiger Management, said that investing in tech is actually pretty simple. He tries to identify big trends and then makes bets on them. One big idea he's betting on now is the ramp-up in data capacity in homes. In the competition to provide that capacity, "we think the cable companies are in a good position." He also likes the phone tower business, because of the demand for LTE service.

????What is he not bullish on? The road leads back to Apple's core business. "The theme we don't like so much is the people that make the phones and tablets," said Laffont. "But content, we love content. Everyone has a screen and they want more content." The bottom line: "Content, mobile broadband, yes. Hardware and anything related to PCs, no."

????Apple shareholders can take solace in the fact that there is at least one stock that Laffont likes less than Apple right now. "I wouldn't buy Intel (INTC) at any price," said Laffont.

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