????美國正式告別信貸緊縮。

????自從本輪金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，美國銀行業(yè)的貸款規(guī)模終于第一次超過了2008年底的水平。7月中旬，美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)公布帶有時(shí)滯的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國銀行業(yè)貸款余額達(dá)到了7.33萬億美元。這個(gè)數(shù)字略高于2008年10月、上次美國銀行業(yè)貸款規(guī)模見頂時(shí)的7.32萬億美元。

????但貸款增速仍然保持低位，增長也不均衡。今年前三個(gè)月貸款出現(xiàn)下降后，二季度又現(xiàn)反彈。增加的貸款不少發(fā)放給了企業(yè)借款人。

????銀行研究公司Bankregdata.com的統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示，過去兩年工商業(yè)貸款余額增長了27%。同期，個(gè)人住房抵押貸款僅增長了4%，雖然最近出現(xiàn)了一股再融資熱，目前看來可能已經(jīng)見頂。只有很少的抵押貸款是用于新購住宅。信用卡貸款增長了不到0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。但汽車貸款增長了15%。

????信貸緊縮在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史上較為罕見，往往也不會持續(xù)很長時(shí)間。2000年左右的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后，銀行業(yè)貸款回升花了1年多一點(diǎn)的時(shí)間。20世紀(jì)80年代末和90年代初，貸款一度增長緩慢，但從未真正下降。最近這次信貸緊縮持續(xù)的時(shí)間差一點(diǎn)就達(dá)到了5年，似乎是美聯(lián)儲1947年以來數(shù)據(jù)庫中規(guī)模最大、持續(xù)時(shí)間最長的一次。

????一路走來，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們激辯此次信貸緊縮究竟是因?yàn)殂y行惜貸，還是貸款需求缺乏。很多政客歸咎于銀行。確實(shí)，金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之后，要獲得一筆住房貸款看起來要比過去困難得多，但也有很多人認(rèn)為，金融危機(jī)前的貸款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)可能過于寬松了。另外，最近銀行存款的增長快于貸款，意味著人們存入銀行的錢流回經(jīng)濟(jì)體系的比例在下降。

????全美獨(dú)立企業(yè)聯(lián)盟(NFIB)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家比爾?登科伯格表示，根據(jù)他在整個(gè)信貸緊縮期間對小企業(yè)主進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，小企業(yè)獲得貸款的能力幾乎沒有出現(xiàn)下降。登科伯格說：“我們真正看到的是不想貸款的企業(yè)比例接近歷史高點(diǎn)?！?/p>

????不過，有積極跡象顯示貸款增長將持續(xù)，只是增速比較緩慢。最近的美聯(lián)儲借款人調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，銀行終于開始降低個(gè)人獲取住房、汽車和信用卡貸款的門檻。調(diào)查還表示，企業(yè)獲取貸款的難度也在下降，而且這個(gè)趨勢正在強(qiáng)化。貸存比一年多來首次上升，但略高于70%的水平仍接近歷史低點(diǎn)。過去銀行業(yè)總是將90%的存款用于放貸。

????在最近的一份分析報(bào)告中，投資公司Sterne Agee的銀行業(yè)分析師托德?海格曼預(yù)測，2014年和2015年貸款將加速，但估計(jì)增速只有2005年左右增速的一半左右。當(dāng)然，這依然是一件好事。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）?

????We are officially uncrunched.

????For the first time since the start of the financial crisis, banks have more lent out then they did in late 2008. In mid-July, according to the Federal Reserve, which reports the figures with a lag, banks had $7.33 trillion in loans outstanding. That was slightly more than the $7.32 trillion banks had extended in October 2008, the last time credit peaked.

????But the growth in lending has remained slow and uneven. Lending in the first three months of the year dropped, before rebounding in the second quarter. And much of the rebound in lending has been to corporate borrowers.

????The volume of commercial and industrial loans outstanding is up 27% in the past two years, according to Bankregdata.com. Consumer mortgage credit, however, is up just 4% in the same time, despite a recent refinance boom, which appears now to have peaked. Very little mortgage lending was for new purchases. Credit card lending is up less than half a percent. Auto loans, though, are up 15%.

????Credit crunches are rare in American economic history, and don't tend to last long. It took slightly more than a year for lending to recover after the early 2000s recession. Credit grew slowly in the late-1980s and early 1990s, but never really dropped. The recent credit crunch, which clocks in at just under five years, appears to be the largest and longest in the Federal Reserve's database, which only goes back to 1947.

????Along the way, economists have debated whether the credit crunch was being driven by banks being unwilling to lend, or from a lack of demand for loans from borrowers. Many politicians blamed the banks. It does appear that getting a home loan became much tougher after the financial crisis, though many would argue it was too loose before it. And recently deposits at the banks have been rising faster than loans, meaning less of the money people are putting into banks is making its way back out into the economy.

????Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, says his surveys of small business owners throughout the credit crunch show that there was little drop-off in the ability of small businesses to get loans. "What we really saw was a near record high percentage of businesses who don't want a loan," says Dunkelberg.

????Still, there are positives signs that lending growth will continue, albeit slowly. The Federal Reserve's most recent survey of lenders found that banks are finally making it easier for individuals to get home, car and credit card loans. The survey also said that the trend toward easier loans for businesses is improving. And the ratio of loans to deposits rose for the first time in over a year, though at just over 70% it is still near all-time lows. Banks used to lend out 90% of their deposits.

????In a recent analyst note, Sterne Agee bank analyst Todd Hagerman predicted that lending will pick up in 2014 and 2015, though he still expects the growth will be about half what it was in the mid-2000s. That, of course, could be a good thing.