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中國(guó)投資放緩拉低消費(fèi)者支出

中國(guó)投資放緩拉低消費(fèi)者支出

John Foley 2013-09-03
數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和制造領(lǐng)域投資減速正在拉低中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的個(gè)人收入,導(dǎo)致中國(guó)消費(fèi)者在零售領(lǐng)域的支出增長(zhǎng)全面放緩,只有具有投資價(jià)值的金銀珠寶銷(xiāo)售取得了大幅增長(zhǎng)。光靠?jī)?nèi)需來(lái)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的思路在眼下的中國(guó)似乎行不通。

????消費(fèi)品牌發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)的回報(bào)并不像傳說(shuō)中那般豐厚。過(guò)去一年里,中國(guó)眾多領(lǐng)域的商品都出現(xiàn)了購(gòu)買(mǎi)增長(zhǎng)大幅放緩的情況,從新秀麗(Samsonite)到蘋(píng)果(Apple)等公司發(fā)布的中國(guó)銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)都令人失望。這個(gè)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的消費(fèi)者們未來(lái)還會(huì)有風(fēng)光的日子,但認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在憑消費(fèi)者就可以保持增長(zhǎng)的想法看起來(lái)有些老套,而且也站不住腳。

????7月份,中國(guó)零售銷(xiāo)售額同比增長(zhǎng)了13.2%,低于2012年的年度增長(zhǎng)率14.3%和2011年17.1%的增長(zhǎng)率。而7月份金銀首飾銷(xiāo)售額同比則猛增了42%。

????新秀麗稱(chēng),它的中國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)收入2013年上半年增長(zhǎng)了8%(剔除匯率上漲影響)。此前這家香港上市的箱包制造商公布,2012年全年中國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)收入增長(zhǎng)20%。

????中國(guó)旺旺(Want Want China)公布,2013年上半年收入同比增長(zhǎng)了14.9%,低于2012年上半年19.4%的增幅。這家食品制造商上周表示,它核心的乳制品和飲料業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)了18.3%,大大低于上年同期28%的增幅。

????在中國(guó)大陸,不只是高端品牌宣布收入增長(zhǎng)放緩。幾乎各個(gè)領(lǐng)域的零售銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)都低于一年前?;瘖y品銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)從15%降到了10%,針織物銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)從18%降到了12.5%。只有具有投機(jī)吸引力的金銀首飾銷(xiāo)售勢(shì)頭不減,7月份銷(xiāo)售額同比增長(zhǎng)了42%。珠寶公司蒂芙尼(Tiffany)就表示,它中國(guó)業(yè)務(wù)的銷(xiāo)售“特別強(qiáng)勁”。

????與此同時(shí),多家中國(guó)銀行在中期業(yè)績(jī)中披露,零售和批發(fā)行業(yè)的不良貸款大幅激增。招商銀行(China Merchants Bank)披露,向零售企業(yè)提供的不良貸款激增了48%。中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行(China Construction Bank)的增幅是19%,中信銀行(China CITIC Bank)更是激增66%。

????零售收入不可能無(wú)限期地保持兩位數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)。但增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期對(duì)于零售商決定投入多少資金用于庫(kù)存和開(kāi)新店非常重要。零售行業(yè)不良貸款增加表明,一些零售運(yùn)營(yíng)商高估了需求。運(yùn)動(dòng)服飾制造商李寧(Li Ning)就是一個(gè)警示,這家公司用賣(mài)不動(dòng)的庫(kù)存填充零售商的貨架,卻被迫回購(gòu)這些商品來(lái)拯救品牌。

????對(duì)于設(shè)計(jì)師箱包、服飾等商品,政府限制購(gòu)買(mǎi)禮品也是一個(gè)因素。但它不足以解釋普遍的放緩。更有可能的情況是,房地產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和制造業(yè)投資減速,正在拉低收入。根據(jù)中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(National Bureau of Statistics)的一項(xiàng)官方調(diào)查,2013年前兩個(gè)季度,中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入同比增長(zhǎng)了9%,低于5年來(lái)13%的平均值。

????如果投資放緩,消費(fèi)也會(huì)跟著放緩。它意味著,如果投資水平下降,中國(guó)無(wú)法依賴(lài)消費(fèi)來(lái)填補(bǔ)投資水平下降的空缺,盡管他們最終必須走這條路。這也使得中國(guó)要提高消費(fèi)占GDP比例(現(xiàn)處于35%的低位)的任務(wù)更難完成。如果中國(guó)想讓消費(fèi)者發(fā)力,就需要往消費(fèi)者的腰包里放更多的錢(qián)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????Consumer brands in China are finding their rewards aren't quite as advertised. Growth in purchases of a wide range of goods has slowed sharply over the past year, and companies ranging from Samsonite to Apple (AAPL) are reporting disappointing Chinese sales figures. Consumers in the world's second-largest economy will have their day, but the idea they alone can sustain growth looks threadbare.

????China's retail sales grew at 13.2% in July, year on year, a slowdown from 14.3% annual growth in 2012, and 17.1% growth in 2011. Sales of gold and silver jewelry rose 42% year on year in July.

????Samsonite said its China revenue increased by an annual 8% in the first half of 2013, excluding the effect of currency gains. In the whole of 2012, the Hong Kong-listed luggage maker reported a 20% increase in China revenue.

????Want Want China reported revenue growth of 14.9% year on year in the first half of 2013, below the 19.4% growth it recorded in the first half of 2012. The food producer's core dairy and beverage segment grew 18.3%, it said this week, compared with 28% in the same period a year earlier.

????It's not just premium brands that are reporting slowing revenue growth in the People's Republic. Retail sales in almost every category are increasing more slowly than they were a year ago. Growth in cosmetics sales has slowed from 15% to 10%, and knitwear from 18% to 12.5%. Only gold and silver jewelry, which has a speculative appeal, has been gaining momentum, with sales up 42% year on year in July. Tiffany (TIF) says its China sales are "especially strong".

????This is happening at the same time China's banks reported a sharp rise in bad loans from the retail and wholesale sector in their interim earnings. China Merchants Bank said non-performing loans to retail-sector companies increased by 48%. At China Construction Bank the increase was 19%, and at China CITIC Bank 66%.

????Retail revenue cannot expand at double-digit rates indefinitely. But growth expectations are important for retailers deciding how much capital to tie up in stocks and new stores. The increase in bad loans to the retail sector suggests that some operators overestimated demand. Sportswear maker Li Ning was an early warning of what can happen -- it stuffed its retailers with unsaleable stock, and was forced to buy heaps of the stuff back to salvage its brand.

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