????如果說(shuō)曾有人懷疑華爾街正熱衷于炒作3D打印概念，那上周隨著花旗集團(tuán)（Citi）分析師肯尼思?王開(kāi)始關(guān)注3D打印機(jī)生產(chǎn)商Stratasys公司和3D Systems公司，這種懷疑自然就煙消云散了。在一份客戶報(bào)告中，肯尼思同時(shí)還表示，他深信3D打印設(shè)備及服務(wù)市場(chǎng)到2018年規(guī)模將增長(zhǎng)到現(xiàn)在的三倍。他寫道，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)“正蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)，將有更多上游生產(chǎn)應(yīng)用及終端消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)大規(guī)模采用3D技術(shù)”。話音剛落，Stratasys和3-D Systems——以及該領(lǐng)域的其他廠商——的股票就應(yīng)聲飛漲。

????肯尼思?王表示，這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)背后的推動(dòng)力量是“隨著客戶開(kāi)始不再局限于小批量數(shù)字化生產(chǎn)而擴(kuò)大應(yīng)用范圍時(shí)，現(xiàn)有系統(tǒng)的使用率就會(huì)隨之提高”?；蛘哒f(shuō)得更明白些，3D打印機(jī)的價(jià)格正變得日愈低廉，使用更容易，同時(shí)適用于打印越來(lái)越復(fù)雜的物品和設(shè)計(jì)方案。同時(shí)還存在其他推動(dòng)因素，比如隨著目前這個(gè)領(lǐng)域一些限制競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的關(guān)鍵專利到期，3D打印必將在未來(lái)幾年里迎來(lái)爆發(fā)式的增長(zhǎng)。

????肯尼思?王并不是第一個(gè)做出這個(gè)論斷的分析師，不過(guò)不管出于什么原因，他斷言看漲的客戶報(bào)告還是受到了大眾媒體的追捧，讓3D打印類的股票當(dāng)天下午一路飄紅。不過(guò)，3D打印真的已經(jīng)到了發(fā)展的引爆點(diǎn)嗎？要按造勢(shì)媒體的說(shuō)法，全世界都正在朝著3D打印革命的方向一路飛奔。但是，盡管更廉價(jià)的打印機(jī)、即將到期的專利和更廣泛的應(yīng)用都確實(shí)有助于推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展——也許也能在未來(lái)幾年使目前尚處發(fā)端的3D打印市場(chǎng)規(guī)模翻上兩番——不過(guò)要說(shuō)這就是桌面生產(chǎn)革命還為時(shí)尚早。下面我們來(lái)分析一下原因：

1.相關(guān)專利確實(shí)即將到期，但它們并不是阻礙3D打印發(fā)展的因素。

????2014年將到期的專利是激光燒結(jié)技術(shù)，這是目前市場(chǎng)上3D打印技術(shù)中歷史最長(zhǎng)、成本最低的專利。激光燒結(jié)技術(shù)能生產(chǎn)出高分辨率的物品，在某些情況下可與制成品相媲美。不過(guò)盡管打印成本不高，但這種打印機(jī)的成本卻十分高昂——工業(yè)級(jí)的打印機(jī)造價(jià)高達(dá)數(shù)萬(wàn)美元。按照現(xiàn)在的說(shuō)法，由于存在知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)而導(dǎo)致的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)不足推高了造價(jià)，但當(dāng)這些專利明年到期后這種打印機(jī)就會(huì)降價(jià)，使激光燒結(jié)的使用率增加，同時(shí)降低3D打印機(jī)的整體生產(chǎn)成本。

????但是，認(rèn)為專利到期就將推動(dòng)3D打印爆發(fā)發(fā)展的觀點(diǎn)卻隱含著一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題：專利本身并不是阻礙3D打印市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的根本因素。

????德勤加拿大分公司（Deloitte Canada）的技術(shù)、傳媒和通訊部門研究總監(jiān)鄧肯?斯圖爾特表示：“之所以說(shuō)3D打印市場(chǎng)今后并不會(huì)比現(xiàn)在更大主要不是因?yàn)橹R(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)問(wèn)題或?qū)＠麢?quán)歸屬問(wèn)題。主要是因?yàn)?，?duì)生產(chǎn)我們現(xiàn)在所需要的絕大多數(shù)東西來(lái)說(shuō)，3D打印機(jī)速度太慢，成本太高，或是——因?yàn)樗鼈兯苁褂玫脑牧嫌兄T多限制——它們無(wú)法方便地造出我們想要的東西。使3D打印市場(chǎng)無(wú)法發(fā)展到預(yù)期規(guī)模的最主要的因素始終在于3D打印機(jī)的易用性本身，而不是專利?！?/p>

????斯圖爾特稱，這些專利到期能解決成本問(wèn)題，但卻無(wú)法解決功能性這個(gè)更為根本的問(wèn)題，“這些專利到期后確實(shí)會(huì)有所幫助，但卻無(wú)法讓市場(chǎng)發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化?！????

????If there was any doubt Wall Street is warming up to 3-D printing it was extinguished last week when Citi analyst Kenneth Wong initiated coverage of 3-D printer manufacturers Stratasys (SSYS) and 3D Systems (DDD), at the same time expressing in a client note that he believes the market for 3-D printing equipment and services will triple by 2018. The market "is on the cusp of seeing much broader adoption across more upstream production applications and the consumer end market," Wong wrote. Shares of Stratasys and 3-D Systems -- as well as others in the space -- spiked.

????"Increased utilization of existing systems as customers start to extend use case beyond small batch digital manufacturing" is behind this growth, Wong says. Or, more plainly, 3-D printers are becoming less expensive, easier to use, and applicable to more -- and more complex -- kinds of objects and designs. Factor in a confluence of other catalysts, like the expiration of key patents that currently discourage competition in the space, and 3-D printing is poised to explode in the next few years.

????Wong isn't the first analyst to make this observation, though for whatever reason his decidedly bullish client note found traction in the popular press, helping to buoy 3-D printing stocks for an afternoon. But has 3-D printing really reached its tipping point? To hear the hype machine tell it, the world is hurtling headlong into a 3-D printing revolution. But while cheaper printers, expiring patents, and a wider range of applications will certainly help drive the market -- and perhaps even triple the value of 3-D printing's nascent marketplace in the near term -- a desktop manufacturing revolution this is not. Here are five reasons why.

1. Patents will expire, but they're not what's holding 3-D printing back

????The patents set to expire in 2014 concern laser sintering, one of the oldest and lowest-cost 3-D printing technologies on the market. Laser sintering can produce high-resolution objects, good enough to be finished products in some cases. But though the cost of printing is low, the cost of the actual printers is quite high -- in the tens of thousands of dollars for industrial grade machines. A lack of competition caused by intellectual property protections keeps that price high, the theory goes, and when those patents expire next year the price of these machines will drop, increasing access to laser sintering technology and lowering the overall cost of manufacturing by 3-D printer.

????However, the idea that expiring patents will fuel an explosion in 3-D printing suffers from a key flaw: Patents aren't really what's holding the 3-D printing market back.

????"The reason 3-D printing isn't bigger than it is today is largely not because of intellectual property issues or who owns what patents," says Duncan Stewart, director of technology, media, and telecommunications research at Deloitte Canada. "It's the fact that for most of the things that we need in the world today, 3-D printers are too slow, too expensive, or that -- because of the limitations in the kinds of materials they can use -- they cannot easily make the things that you want to. The single biggest factor keeping 3-D printing smaller than it might otherwise be up until now has been the utility of 3-D printers, not the patents."

????The expiration of patents addresses one of those issues -- expense -- but it won't solve the more fundamental problem of functionality, Stewart says. "When the patents come off, that will help, but it doesn't suddenly transform the market."??