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3D打印黃金時(shí)代遲到的5大原因

3D打印黃金時(shí)代遲到的5大原因

Clay Dillow 2013-09-04
花旗銀行分析師發(fā)布報(bào)告稱,2018年3D打印市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到目前的3倍,但不要認(rèn)為這就是所謂的3D打印革命。受種種原因的制約,這個(gè)市場(chǎng)盡管增速驚人,但總體規(guī)模相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)依然只是九牛一毛。

2.廉價(jià)3D打印機(jī)降低了市場(chǎng)熱度。

????毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),支撐3D打印的技術(shù)過(guò)去五年來(lái)獲得了長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展,使一萬(wàn)美元以下的打印機(jī)也能利用多種原材料成批打出高質(zhì)量、高分辨率的物品。但據(jù)Smartech Markets Publishing公司總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官勞倫斯?蓋思曼稱,廉價(jià)的打印機(jī)依然存在問(wèn)題。售價(jià)低于1000美元(甚至500美元)的3D打印機(jī)瞄準(zhǔn)的是普通消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)。蓋思曼表示,關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是,這些低端打印機(jī)的質(zhì)量并不理想。

????蓋思曼稱:“現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)了一些較低價(jià)的、如400美元一臺(tái)的打印機(jī)。但我們,以及全行業(yè)對(duì)這類產(chǎn)品的一大擔(dān)憂是,如果有人對(duì)這類機(jī)器期望值過(guò)高,在花了350美元買回去一臺(tái)后卻發(fā)現(xiàn)它幾乎毫無(wú)用處,那就會(huì)讓這類消費(fèi)者從此對(duì)這種概念產(chǎn)品敬而遠(yuǎn)之了。”

????蓋思曼表示,一臺(tái)2500美元(對(duì)3D打印機(jī)來(lái)說(shuō)已經(jīng)不算貴了)左右的打印機(jī)確實(shí)能打出令人驚艷的東西來(lái),但這個(gè)價(jià)位對(duì)絕大多數(shù)家庭來(lái)說(shuō)都不是個(gè)小數(shù)目。而消費(fèi)者會(huì)為了打點(diǎn)小玩意兒,就想買個(gè)350美元的機(jī)器嗎?只有價(jià)格下降,但打印品質(zhì)仍能保證的情況下,才可能有更多消費(fèi)者買3D打印機(jī)。

3.知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)仍會(huì)誘發(fā)各種行業(yè)問(wèn)題。

????蓋思曼稱,3D打印涉及的領(lǐng)域非常廣泛,因此這個(gè)行業(yè)暫時(shí)不需要考慮太多的監(jiān)管問(wèn)題。即使要通過(guò)某項(xiàng)監(jiān)管措施,那也會(huì)是針對(duì)某種應(yīng)用(比如打印武器)而非技術(shù)本身。但這并不意味著訴訟及其他法律問(wèn)題完全不會(huì)阻礙3D打印加速發(fā)展的腳步。因?yàn)?D打印涉及的資金非常龐大。

????價(jià)值上萬(wàn)億美元的多個(gè)行業(yè)可能會(huì)感到3D打印以及它可能繞過(guò)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)而構(gòu)成的威脅。盡管相關(guān)法律問(wèn)題十分復(fù)雜難纏,但這也難以阻止一些公司,比如汽車零部件行業(yè)(每年產(chǎn)值為1400億美元)通過(guò)法律渠道保護(hù)自己的利益,從而讓3D打印技術(shù)或其應(yīng)用長(zhǎng)期寸步難行。相比知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)盜用而言,還有些問(wèn)題層次更深。擔(dān)保、設(shè)計(jì)授權(quán)、相關(guān)責(zé)任(斯圖爾特就說(shuō):“如果3D打印的零部件損壞,最終毀了我價(jià)值一千萬(wàn)美元的機(jī)器怎么辦?”)——從法律觀點(diǎn)看,相關(guān)問(wèn)題還遠(yuǎn)不止于這些。

????斯圖爾特說(shuō):“我跟一些律師討論過(guò)這個(gè)問(wèn)題,結(jié)果他們的眼珠就像自動(dòng)售貨機(jī)上的轉(zhuǎn)盤一樣轉(zhuǎn)個(gè)不停。這是個(gè)很大的問(wèn)題。它會(huì)涉及到上千億、甚至上萬(wàn)億美元,而目前沒(méi)人知道該怎么解決,相關(guān)法律如何執(zhí)行,甚至連該制訂什么法律大家都沒(méi)概念?!?/p>

4.3D打印不是制造業(yè)的救星。

????它也不會(huì)是“家庭工廠”——至少未來(lái)五年里不會(huì)是。盡管3D打印技術(shù)能提高產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)師和生產(chǎn)商的工作效率,但它的速度實(shí)在太慢了。蓋思曼表示,這種技術(shù)對(duì)大規(guī)模定制來(lái)說(shuō)非常適合,但用到大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)上就太不靠譜了,而且它也沒(méi)法生產(chǎn)普通人的日常生活用品。

2. Cheaper printers could have a cooling effect on the market

????There's no question that the technology underlying 3-D printing has come a long way over the last half decade, allowing printers in the sub-$10,000 price range to churn out high-quality, high-resolution objects in a range of materials. But at the lower end of the price spectrum there could be a problem, says Smartech Markets Publishing President and CEO Lawrence Gasman. The emergence of sub-$1,000 printers -- and even sub-$500 printers -- aimed at the consumer market has placed 3-D printing within the grasp of just about anyone. The problem, Gasman says, is that the lower-end printers aren't very good.

????"There's beginning to be a low end to it, something like a $400 printer," Gasman says. "And one concern we have for this space, and it's shared across the industry, if you set the expectation high for what these things can do and someone buys one for $350 and finds that it's next to useless, that will put them off the whole concept."

????You can do amazing things with a printer that costs about two-and-a-half-grand, Gasman says -- a relatively inexpensive machine as far as 3-D printers go, but the kind of expense that warrants a discussion in most households. And will consumers want a $350 machine dedicated to making trinkets? Until quality comes downhill along with cost, widespread adoption by consumers could be muted.

3. Intellectual property could still cause problems for the industry

????The field of 3-D printing is broad enough that the industry doesn't have to worry too much about regulation at this point, Gasman says. Any regulation that might be passed would likely target an application (like printing firearms, for instance) rather than the technology itself. But that doesn't mean litigation and other legal issues might not slow 3-D printing's acceleration. There's simply too much money at stake.

????Industries worth tens and even hundreds of billions of dollars could feel threatened by 3-D printing and the ways in which it might circumvent their intellectual property protections. And while the legal waters get murky here, that might not stop companies in, say, the automotive parts business (valued at something like $140 billion annually) from moving to protect their interests via legal channels, tying up some 3-D printing technologies or applications indefinitely. The issues run deeper than mere intellectual property theft. Warranties, licensing of designs, liability ("what if my 3-D printed part breaks and destroys my $10 million dollar machine?" Stewart says) -- from a legal standpoint there hasn't even been a first, much less final, word on this.

????"I have talked to lawyers about this, and their eyes spin in their heads like the dials on a slot machine," Stewart says. "This is an enormous issue. It is worth tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars, and nobody knows how it's going to work out, how it's going to be enforced, or even what the law is."

4. 3-D printing is not the savior of manufacturing

????Or the "factory for the home" -- at least not in the next five years. While 3-D printing technology can make product designers and manufacturers more efficient, it's remarkably slow. It's great for mass customization, Gasman says, but wholly implausible for mass production. Nor is it capable of producing the kinds of things that now rule the average person's life.

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