????科技界的目光很快將投向位于加州庫比蒂諾的蘋果公司（Apple）總部。有傳聞稱，蘋果將于本周二發(fā)布增強版高端iPhone 5S和價格較低的iPhone 5C。而蘋果公司同時還會發(fā)布其他設(shè)備，特別是坊間一直風(fēng)傳的iWatch智能手表。雖然在競爭激烈的手機行業(yè)，蘋果一年召開多次新品發(fā)布會已是司空見慣，但是本周的新品發(fā)布對于蘋果公司及其投資者、乃至三星（Samsung）、微軟（Microsoft）、諾基亞（Nokia）、谷歌（Google）和摩托羅拉（Motorola）等競爭對手來說，都具有特別重要的意義。

????“蘋果用戶的忠誠度會受到影響，包括極客和普通消費者在內(nèi)，”調(diào)查研究公司Newzoo創(chuàng)始人彼特?沃曼說。

????這是因為，即將發(fā)布的iOS7操作系統(tǒng)將給舊版iPad、iPhone和iPod Touch產(chǎn)品帶來影響。今后，大量的應(yīng)用軟件或更新內(nèi)容將無法在舊版操作系統(tǒng)上使用，大量用戶將不得不更新操作系統(tǒng)。

????沃曼說：“這種新情況會迫使消費者考慮是購買蘋果新產(chǎn)品，還是購買三星（Samsung）、微軟（Microsoft）、安卓等替代產(chǎn)品。如果消費者選擇繼續(xù)使用原有產(chǎn)品，但是不再使用應(yīng)用軟件，那么蘋果公司穩(wěn)定的收入來源將終止。”

????韋德布什證券公司（Wedbush Securities）的視頻游戲分析師邁克爾?帕切表示，由于三星剛剛發(fā)布了Galaxy Note 3手機和Gear smartwatch智能手表，蘋果公司需要這種更新來對抗三星的競爭。此外，蘋果還面臨著來自微軟及其新并購的諾基亞（Nokia）的競爭。

????沃曼指出，史蒂夫?喬布斯去世以后，蘋果的新品發(fā)布會沒有帶來讓人興奮的產(chǎn)品，很久沒有看到科技天才們的歡呼雀躍了。他補充說：“蘋果的iWatch智能手表會比三星或其他品牌的產(chǎn)品酷上100倍嗎？它是只有蘋果才能做出來的獨特產(chǎn)品嗎？以往都是蘋果率先發(fā)布一種新產(chǎn)品，而現(xiàn)在蘋果成了第二或第三個發(fā)布者，?！?/p>

????相對于蘋果，三星在智能手表方面搶占了先機，這將使兩大科技巨頭之間的競爭更趨白熱化。顯然，三星在硬件方面處于領(lǐng)先地位，在數(shù)量方面遙遙領(lǐng)先蘋果。而Galaxy系列手機的熱銷讓谷歌的安卓操作系統(tǒng)超越了iOS。但沃曼表示，蘋果目前是手機業(yè)務(wù)中唯一一家實現(xiàn)“成功的硬件、操作系統(tǒng)和內(nèi)容商店三位一體”的公司。

????Newzoo的最新研究表明，雖然GooglePlay商店的整體收入增速較快，但是它的收入只是蘋果iOS商店總收入的47%。蘋果在過去的新品發(fā)布會上與英佩游戲（Epic Games）就無盡之劍（ Infinity Blade ）經(jīng)銷權(quán)展開合作，并在商業(yè)廣告中介紹移動游戲。其中的部分原因在于，從全球來看，任何應(yīng)用商店三分之一的下載內(nèi)容是游戲，三分之一的應(yīng)用軟件消費是游戲消費。沃曼估計，僅靠30%的移動游戲消費，蘋果今年就能獲得將近20億美元的收入。

????游戲是手機的主要推動因素，而三星強調(diào)暢銷手機Galaxy S4的游戲功能恰恰說明了這一點。Newzoo預(yù)計，今年世界移動游戲的消費將從去年的91億美元增加至122億美元，增幅達(dá)34%。到今年年底，平板電腦和智能手機的游戲玩家數(shù)量將超過十億。

????“到2016年，移動游戲有望占領(lǐng)全球游戲市場28%的份額，收入約為240億美元，這是巨大的全球增長機遇，”沃曼說。“美國占全球移動游戲市場的份額低于25%，今年美國人口將產(chǎn)生約28億美元的移動游戲收入。蘋果不超過40%的iOS游戲收入來源于美國。而Google Play的這一比例還不足30%?！?

????The tech world's attention will turn to Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. Tuesday, where the company is rumored to debut the enhanced high-end iPhone 5S and the lower-cost iPhone 5C. Other devices, potentially the long-rumored iWatch, could also be showcased. While new Apple products at press events multiple times a year are now common in the cutthroat mobile industry, this week's event is especially important for Apple (AAPL) and its investors, as well as for the company's rivals like Samsung, Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK), Google (GOOG), and Motorola.

????"The loyalty of Apple users is at stake, both the geeks as well as regular consumers," said Peter Warman, founder of research firm Newzoo.

????That's because the impending launch of iOS 7 will impact users of older iPad, iPhone, and iPod Touch devices. These consumers will be forced to upgrade to a new device because an increasing number of apps or updates no longer will work on the older operating systems.

????"This situation is new and forcing consumers to think about buying a new device, whether it's a new Apple device or an alternative from Samsung, Microsoft, Android, or others," said Warman. "If consumers decide to stick with their old devices and use them for everything but apps, then a steady revenue stream towards Apple stops."

????Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Securities, said that Apple needs this refresh to keep up with competition like Samsung, which just announced the Galaxy Note 3 and the accompanying Gear smartwatch. Apple is also now taking on Microsoft and its newly acquired Nokia.

????Warman noted that since Steve Jobs left, there has been no cheering at Apple press events, no tech geeks jumping up and down. "Will Apple's iWatch look a hundred times cooler than that of Samsung and others? Will it do something that only Apple could have dreamed up? Normally Apple launches products first, now they are coming in second or third," he added.

????With Samsung beating Apple to the punch with its smart watch, the rivalry between these two giants continues to grow. Samsung clearly leads the field in the hardware space, beating Apple in absolute numbers. Sales of Galaxy phones have helped Google's Android operating systems overtake iOS. But Warman said Apple is currently the only company in the mobile business with the "holy trinity of successful hardware, operating system, and content store."

????New research from Newzoo shows that despite higher growth rates, overall GooglePlay revenues still stand at only 47% of the total generated by Apple's iOS stores. One of the reasons Apple has partnered with Epic Games with its Infinity Blade franchise at past press events and featured mobile games in its commercials is because on a global scale, one in three downloads from any app store is a game. Two in three dollars spent on these apps is on games. Warman estimates that Apple will gross close to $2 billion this year solely from its 30% share on mobile games spending.

????Gaming is a key driver for mobile, as evidenced by Samsung highlighting the gaming capabilities of its bestselling Galaxy S4 phone. Newzoo forecasts that worldwide spending on mobile games will grow 34% this year, from $9.1 billion to $12.2 billion. By the end of this year, the number of tablet and smartphone gamers will surpass one billion.

????"By 2016, mobile games are expected to claim 28% of the global games market, generating almost $24 billion and representing a huge global growth opportunity," said Warman. "The U.S. represents less than 25% of the global mobile games market with Americans expected to generate around $2.8 billion in mobile game revenues this year. Less than 40% of Apple's iOS game revenues come from the U.S. For Google Play, this share is significantly lower at less than 30%."?