????大眾（Volkswagen）在駛向世界第一寶座的道路上是不是遇到障礙了？

????德國一家權(quán)威商業(yè)雜志報道這家汽車制造商的高管擔(dān)憂利潤將低于預(yù)期后，這個問題如今已經(jīng)成為德國各界關(guān)注的熱點。

????大眾汽車的股價在截至上周五的五個交易日中已經(jīng)下跌了4%，而德國主要股指上漲了4%。這個背離大盤的走勢表明上面提到的報道已經(jīng)嚇到了投資者，雖然大眾很快予以否認。

????德國《經(jīng)理人》（Manager Magazin）雜志報道稱，大眾集團首席財務(wù)官潘師告訴管理層，大眾集團很可能無法實現(xiàn)2015年的利潤目標(biāo)，并由此無法在2018年達到息稅前利潤增長8%的目標(biāo)。

????“我們認為，大眾確實存在一個問題，”伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）在一份分析師報告中指出?！八麄冞^高地估計了MQB項目的節(jié)約效應(yīng)，造成市場預(yù)期過高，難以兌現(xiàn)?！盡QB是大眾的橫置發(fā)動機模塊化平臺，用于生產(chǎn)大眾新高爾夫（Golf）以及奧迪（Audi）、西雅特（Seat）、斯柯達（Skoda）和其他大眾品牌車型。

????伯恩斯坦預(yù)計，到2020年，大眾全球單一平臺的汽車產(chǎn)量將達到550萬輛，而將被MQB取代的現(xiàn)有平臺如今的汽車產(chǎn)量是300萬輛。

????2009年以來，大眾高管一直宣稱，MQB將實現(xiàn)20%的成本節(jié)約。伯恩斯坦認為，大眾對于這個平臺的鼓吹“言過其實”。他警告投資者，不要指望新平臺相比老平臺馬上就能產(chǎn)生很大的成本節(jié)約效應(yīng)。伯恩斯坦表示，一位曾將新高爾夫拆解為零件的專家表示，這個平臺使用昂貴的材料和工程解決方案，看來成本相對較高。

????大眾擁有12個品牌，在高速增長的中國市場有驕人的市場份額，公司的目標(biāo)是2018年（甚至更早）成為全球最大的汽車制造商。通用汽車（General Motors）和豐田汽車（Toyota）尚未發(fā)布具體的預(yù)期，但兩者都有野心在利潤和客戶滿意度上領(lǐng)導(dǎo)這個市場（假如它們不能在銷售量上取得領(lǐng)先地位的話）。

????大眾正在拓展北美客戶群，一個關(guān)鍵項目就是在美國田納西州查塔努加建設(shè)一家組裝廠，制造專門為北美駕駛者設(shè)計的帕薩特（Passat）中型車。但大眾也可能面臨美國工人罷工的風(fēng)險，美國汽車工人聯(lián)合會（U.A.W.）已瞄準將這家工廠，希望把它納入組織。

????伯恩斯坦表示，大眾在實現(xiàn)效率方面表現(xiàn)“相當(dāng)不錯”，或許已實現(xiàn)大部分。除此之外，本田（Honda）、現(xiàn)代（Hyundai）等汽車制造商也已證明可以通過少數(shù)平臺實現(xiàn)強勁銷售。

????但不是所有人都在擔(dān)心大眾。德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）針對上述報道發(fā)布了一份報告稱，大眾在十年前就遭遇了成本利潤問題；這家汽車制造商的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人正在確保不再發(fā)生這樣的情況；因此，那次會議的目的是向高管發(fā)出警告，警惕成本。

????大眾無疑已經(jīng)意識到的一點是，公開探討世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位（無論它在激勵員工方面有什么價值）容易被質(zhì)疑者和評論人士盯上，但其中大量的關(guān)注并不令人愉快。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????Has Volkswagen hit a pothole on the road to world domination?

????The question is front and center in Germany, after an authoritative German business magazine reported that the automaker's executives are worried that profit is falling behind projections.

????VW shares fell 4% for the five trading days ending Friday, while the main German stock index was up 4%. The divergence suggests that investors have been spooked by the story, which VW quickly denied.

????Manager Magazin reported that Hans Dieter Potsch, the company's chief financial officer, told executives that the VW group was on a path to miss its 2015 profit target and, therefore, might not reach its 8% target for earnings before interest and taxes in 2018.

????"We believe VW does have an issue," said Bernstein Research in an analyst report, having "overpromised on savings related to the MQB program and has created market expectations that will be difficult to fulfill." MQB is the moniker for a modular vehicle architecture, the basis for the new VW Golf and many other models from Audi, Seat, Skoda, and other VW brands.

????By the end of the decade, Bernstein expects VW to be building 5.5 million vehicles worldwide from a single platform, compared with 3 million vehicles today from the platform MQB will replace.

????Since 2009, VW executives have claimed that MQB will allow the automaker to realize cost savings of 20%. Bernstein has called the platform "over-hyped" and cautioned against expecting too much cost improvements from the new platform over its predecessor. Bernstein said a specialist that has torn down the new Golf to its constituent parts said the platform looks relatively high cost, using expensive materials and engineering solutions.

????The automaker has assembled a collection of 12 brands and built an impressive presence in the fast-growing Chinese market, leading to its goal of becoming the No. 1 automaker worldwide by 2018, or even before. General Motors (GM) and Toyota (TM) haven't issued specific projections, but they both harbor ambitions of their own to lead the market in terms of profits and customer satisfaction, if not in unit sales volume.

????VW is its expanding customer base in North America, driven by the construction of an assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. where it builds a Passat midsize sedan that's designed specifically for North American drivers. But VW could face labor unrest in the U.S. since the U.A.W. has targeted its plant for organization.

????Bernstein said that VW is "pretty good" at achieving efficiencies and may have reaped most of them already. Besides, other automakers like Honda and Hyundai have proven they also can achieve strong volume from few platforms.

????Not every one is worried about VW. Deutsche Bank issued a report based on the magazine story saying that VW ran into cost and profit trouble a decade ago and that the automaker's leaders are making sure it doesn't happen again; thus, the meeting to warn its executives and caution about costs.

????What VW no doubt realizes is that speaking openly about world domination, whatever its value for motivating employees, creates lots of scrutiny from skeptics and commentators, much of it unflattering.