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網(wǎng)絡(luò)股為什么再次走紅

網(wǎng)絡(luò)股為什么再次走紅

Kevin Kelleher 2013-10-10
眼下,由Facebook領(lǐng)銜,網(wǎng)絡(luò)股正在經(jīng)歷網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破裂以來(lái)新一輪的集體上漲。LinkedIn上漲了112%, Pandora漲了199%, Yelp的漲幅更是高達(dá) 285%。不過(guò)網(wǎng)絡(luò)股目前的狂飆突進(jìn)并沒(méi)有堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。就算網(wǎng)絡(luò)股目前的上漲還沒(méi)有見(jiàn)頂,我們離這一天也已經(jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了。

????以Facebook為例,它目前的股價(jià)是過(guò)去12個(gè)月?tīng)I(yíng)收的231倍,是2013年預(yù)計(jì)營(yíng)收的71倍。標(biāo)普(The S&P 500's)的平均市盈率是19。而Facebook令人暈眩的股價(jià)存在的基礎(chǔ)是它未來(lái)數(shù)的年?duì)I收能夠繼續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)這個(gè)樂(lè)觀的預(yù)期。不過(guò)迄今為止,事實(shí)證明這家公司的營(yíng)收并不容易準(zhǔn)確估測(cè)。而根據(jù)歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)已經(jīng)證明,將股價(jià)寄托于未來(lái)數(shù)年的利潤(rùn)這種做法充滿了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????但是,從網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的股價(jià)看,網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的投資者中采用這種計(jì)算方式的卻大有人在。有些公司的市盈率甚至達(dá)到了三位數(shù)。比如LinkedIn的累計(jì)市盈率就高達(dá)926,2013年的預(yù)估市盈率也高達(dá)159。網(wǎng)飛公司(Netflix)2013年的預(yù)估市盈率更高:218。而像Zillow和Yelp的市值就更難評(píng)估了,因?yàn)樗鼈冾A(yù)計(jì)今年也難見(jiàn)到盈利,但它們的股價(jià)卻像是它們的利潤(rùn)馬上就要飛速增長(zhǎng)似的。

????網(wǎng)絡(luò)股的這種集體大漲源于對(duì)一個(gè)特定產(chǎn)業(yè)的押注,即移動(dòng)設(shè)備將成為廣告服務(wù)的主要領(lǐng)地?,F(xiàn)在很多人手里都會(huì)拿著個(gè)手機(jī),每天總要看上十多次,導(dǎo)致大家紛紛想在移動(dòng)廣告服務(wù)領(lǐng)域搶一杯羹。同時(shí),由于用戶日?;顒?dòng)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)被細(xì)致追蹤,也使這些廣告的傳播目標(biāo)更加精準(zhǔn)了。

????但是很多事情可能會(huì)過(guò)猶不及。對(duì)狂轟濫炸的廣告感到厭倦可能會(huì)讓用戶遠(yuǎn)離那些靠拼命彈出廣告來(lái)掙錢(qián)的應(yīng)用和服務(wù)。而公眾為保護(hù)隱私而反對(duì)廣告泛濫,或是政府出臺(tái)限制企業(yè)跟蹤個(gè)人信息的法規(guī)都會(huì)影響到廣告鎖定用戶的精準(zhǔn)程度。廣告市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)比很多人所預(yù)計(jì)的更快走向飽和。一句話,目前股價(jià)上漲的基礎(chǔ)是是一個(gè)盡管前景看好、但尚未經(jīng)過(guò)驗(yàn)證的商業(yè)模式。

????如果說(shuō)這種說(shuō)法聽(tīng)起來(lái)像是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫2.0版,那也未必。泡沫往往是大規(guī)模發(fā)生的,即整個(gè)市場(chǎng)都被非理性的狂熱心態(tài)席卷后才會(huì)出現(xiàn)。我們現(xiàn)在所看到的是,在一個(gè)相對(duì)較小的特定市場(chǎng)中,有人摒棄了理性的基本面分析,轉(zhuǎn)而依靠非理性的空頭支票來(lái)炒作股價(jià)。但這種做法并不意味著它是理智的投資行為,也不能說(shuō)目前的這種非理性不會(huì)在某個(gè)時(shí)候變成狂熱。

????可能掀起一場(chǎng)狂熱的一大因素是個(gè)人投資者是否會(huì)受到Facebook及其同類(lèi)公司飛漲的股價(jià)誘惑而紛紛入市。過(guò)去15年里,這些投資者兩度飽受重創(chuàng),一次是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的幻滅,第二次是規(guī)模更大的房地產(chǎn)泡沫破滅。畢竟,現(xiàn)在這些公司也是很多人熟悉、而且天天使用的品牌,而小投資者往往更傾向于投資自己熟悉的品牌。

????這種投資方式本身不算下策。但更困難、同時(shí)也許是也更重要的一點(diǎn)是,搞清楚什么時(shí)候一只股票的價(jià)位太高,已經(jīng)不再適合買(mǎi)入。就算網(wǎng)絡(luò)股目前還沒(méi)有到達(dá)高點(diǎn),我們離那一天也已經(jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:清遠(yuǎn)???

????Consider Facebook. The stock is currently trading at 231 times its earnings over the past 12 months and 71 times its estimated earnings for 2013. The S&P 500's (SPX) average P/E ratio is 19. Facebook's heady price is based on optimism that its earnings will grow quickly in coming years. But the company's earnings have proven hard to predict so far. And historically, the practice of basing a stock's value on profits that will come several years down the road has proven risky at best.

????Yet that very attitude seems to have grown commonplace among investors in web stocks, as their valuations show. Some are at triple-digit valuations. LinkedIn has a trailing P/E of 926 and an estimated 2013 P/E of 159. Netflix's estimated 2013 P/E is even higher: 218. Others like Zillow and Yelp are harder to value, since they aren't expected to post a profit this year and yet are priced as if they will soon see profits grow quickly.

????The web rally is a sector-wide bet that mobile devices will become a prime venue for serving ads. Many people have a mobile phone constantly at hand and gaze into them dozens of times a day, making the serving of on-the-go ads a snap and also improving the targeting of those ads as user data on their daily activities is tracked in detail.

????But a lot of things could go wrong. Ad fatigue may steer users away from apps and services that advertise aggressively to keep their profits growing. A privacy backlash or regulation limiting companies' ability to track personal data could limit how effective targeted ads become. The ad market could become saturated faster than many are anticipating. In short, stock prices are rising on an unproven, if promising, business model.

????If this sounds like Internet Bubble 2.0, it's not. Bubbles happen on broad scales, where an irrational and momentum-minded mindset takes over an entire market. What we're seeing is a departure from sane fundamental analysis in favor of irrational hope among a relatively small segment of the market. But that doesn't mean it's sensible investing, or that the irrationality won't grow in time into a mania.

????One thing that could help spur a mania is if individual investors -- burned twice in the past 15 years by the dot-com bubble and the fallout of the even bigger housing bubble -- are seduced by soaring prices of Facebook and its peers. After all, these are also brands that many people are familiar with and use everyday. And small investors are comfortable investing in what they know.

????Which in itself isn't a bad approach to investing. What is harder -- but perhaps more important -- to know is when a stock is too expensive to bother buying. We may be reaching that point soon with web stocks, if we're not there already.

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