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HTC還能撐多久

HTC還能撐多久

Kevin Kelleher 2013-10-21
近兩年來(lái),一度登上智能手機(jī)頭號(hào)廠商寶座的HTC股價(jià)和市場(chǎng)份額雙雙走低。本月初,公司甚至警告稱這個(gè)季度將出現(xiàn)上市以來(lái)的首次虧損。與此同時(shí),業(yè)界風(fēng)傳,聯(lián)想正在考慮收購(gòu)HTC。HTC是第一部安卓智能手機(jī)的締造者,如今安卓系統(tǒng)大行其道,HTC卻已命懸一線。它還能撐多久?

????第一個(gè)倒下的是Palm,然后是諾基亞(Nokia),接下來(lái)是黑莓(BlackBerry)。它們都曾經(jīng)是智能手機(jī)界舉足輕重的弄潮兒,可如今都已淪落到要看別人臉色行事的地步。深陷泥潭的宏達(dá)電(HTC)會(huì)成為下一家嗎?

????現(xiàn)在看來(lái)倒真有可能。本月初,HTC曾經(jīng)警告投資者稱,它將出現(xiàn)公司上市以來(lái)的首次季度虧損。一些臺(tái)灣媒體隨后報(bào)道稱,HTC打算與聯(lián)想(Lenovo)合并。(還有消息稱聯(lián)想正在評(píng)估收購(gòu)黑莓一事)。這在幾年前無(wú)疑是天方夜譚,HTC是最早生產(chǎn)Android手機(jī)的廠商,曾在智能手機(jī)界紅極一時(shí)。

????HTC手機(jī)一直被認(rèn)為同蘋果及三星推出的高端產(chǎn)品不相上下。但它的市場(chǎng)份額和股價(jià)如今雙雙萎縮:在臺(tái)灣證券交易所上市的HTC股票過(guò)去兩年半內(nèi)的跌幅已經(jīng)超過(guò)了90%。

????成立于1997年的HTC一直是智能手機(jī)界最具創(chuàng)新力的公司之一。它在2000年生產(chǎn)出世界上首批帶有觸摸屏的手機(jī),兩年之后,它又制造出第一部搭載有微軟(Microsoft)操作系統(tǒng)的智能手機(jī)。2006年,HTC從合約手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)型,成為擁有獨(dú)立品牌的手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商。

????2007年,谷歌(Google)發(fā)布Android手機(jī)操作系統(tǒng),HTC迅速跟進(jìn)研發(fā)相應(yīng)產(chǎn)品。2009年第三季度,也就是iPhone上市后的兩年,HTC發(fā)布了它的首款A(yù)ndroid手機(jī)——G-1,又稱夢(mèng)想。這款手機(jī)上市后好評(píng)如潮。一年后,谷歌希望生產(chǎn)自有品牌的Android手機(jī),于是選擇HTC作為合作生產(chǎn)伙伴。不久,Nexus One誕生。

????Android手機(jī)發(fā)展迅速,從2011年年中開(kāi)始已占據(jù)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)地位。HTC則依靠Android手機(jī)獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷,風(fēng)投一時(shí)無(wú)兩。HTC的市場(chǎng)份額節(jié)節(jié)上升,市值也一舉超過(guò)諾基亞。根據(jù)調(diào)研公司Canalys的數(shù)據(jù),HTC在2011年第三季度曾經(jīng)力壓三星和蘋果,成為美國(guó)最大的智能手機(jī)生產(chǎn)廠商。HTC在冠軍寶座上堅(jiān)持了將近一個(gè)季度的時(shí)間。

????HTC當(dāng)時(shí)在全球市場(chǎng)份額為11%,雖然絕對(duì)數(shù)字不高,但足以維持它全球第四大智能手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商的地位。但據(jù)調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)ABI Research的數(shù)據(jù),HTC目前在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)份額僅為7%,全球市場(chǎng)則低至2.8%。這個(gè)數(shù)字甚至還排不進(jìn)全球前十大智能手機(jī)廠商,而三星目前則占據(jù)了全球三分之一的市場(chǎng)份額。

????隨著谷歌收購(gòu)摩托羅拉移動(dòng)(Motorola Mobility),以及蘋果打贏專利官司,成功禁售數(shù)款HTC手機(jī),HTC如今可謂雪上加霜。在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)輸給三星對(duì)HTC構(gòu)成的打擊最大。三星的創(chuàng)新基因非常優(yōu)秀,而且財(cái)大氣粗,可以毫不猶豫地在Galaxy系列上大打價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。Galaxy S3和S4如今是美國(guó)市場(chǎng)最受歡迎的Android手機(jī)。即便在發(fā)展中國(guó)家,三星和蘋果也成功占據(jù)了高端市場(chǎng),LG、華為(Huawei)、中興(ZTE)、小米(Xiaomi)等廠商則開(kāi)始抓住中低端市場(chǎng)不斷增長(zhǎng)的需求。

????過(guò)去兩年,HTC營(yíng)收和利潤(rùn)雙雙下滑。10月4日,這家公司提前發(fā)布了財(cái)報(bào),稱公司整體營(yíng)收將同比大跌14%,同時(shí)還將面臨巨額虧損,虧損幅度之大,將超出所有分析師的預(yù)期。本月上旬,HTC董事長(zhǎng)王雪紅頗為樂(lè)觀的預(yù)測(cè),公司將在本季度強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈。許多投資者認(rèn)為HTC“謙和之中見(jiàn)卓越”的口號(hào)無(wú)法和用戶產(chǎn)生共鳴。為了打消質(zhì)疑,HTC最近簽下鋼鐵俠小羅伯特?唐尼作為代言人。

????即便如此,大多數(shù)分析師仍然不看好HTC。如今智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)太過(guò)激烈,HTC東山再起難度太大。本季度它也許能恢復(fù)盈利,但那不過(guò)是出售了所持有的美國(guó)耳機(jī)制造商Beats的股份。分析師們認(rèn)為重組是遲早的事,HTC要么被實(shí)力更強(qiáng)大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手收購(gòu),要么和它們合并。但據(jù)稱王雪紅本人堅(jiān)決反對(duì)并購(gòu)。

????First Palm. Then Nokia (NOK). Then BlackBerry (BBRY). Is HTC the next smartphone maker to go from a strong contender in the smartphone market to a troubled company in need of rescue?

????It's starting to look like it. Earlier this month, the company warned investors to brace themselves for the company's first loss as a public company. Then a Taiwan tabloid reported last week that the company may be planning a merger with Lenovo (Lenovo is now reportedly mulling a bid for BlackBerry (BBRY)). That's a far cry from a few years ago, when HTC was an early manufacturer of Android phones and a mover and shaker in the smartphone market.

????HTC's phones have long been considered in the same league with the best phones from Apple (AAPL) and Samsung, but its market share and stock price have both been shrinking: The stock, traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, has lost more than 90% of its value in the past two and a half years.

????Founded in 1997, HTC has long been an innovative force in smartphones. In 2000, it developed one of the first phones with a touchscreen interface, and two years later it introduced the first smartphone powered by Microsoft (MSFT) software. In 2006, HTC went from being a contract manufacturer of phones to marketing handsets under its own brand.

????In 2007, when Google (GOOG) launched its Android mobile operating system, HTC quickly announced it was already at work on an Android phone. HTC launched its first Android phone in the fall of 2009, two years after Apple introduced the first iPhone. Named the G-1 or the Dream, the phone received early praise. A year later, when Google wanted to build its own Android phone, it turned to HTC to manufacture the device it later named the Nexus One.

????In early 2011, as Android phones began to dominate the smartphone market, HTC saw its market share expand and its market cap surpass that of Nokia's, which for years was the leading smartphone maker in the world. According to Canalys, HTC became the biggest U.S. smartphone vendor in the third quarter of 2011, surpassing Samsung and Apple and controlling nearly a quarter of the U.S. market.

????Globally, HTC held a smaller share back then -- 11% -- but big enough to make it the fourth-largest smartphone company in the world. Recently, however, HTC has held about 7% of the U.S. market and even less of the global market: 2.8%, according to ABI Research, which noted that the company isn't even ranked in the top 10 global smartphone makers. Samsung controls a third of that global market.

????HTC's decline accelerated as Google bought Motorola Mobility and as Apple won a court ban on some HTC handsets. Mostly, HTC lost its lead of the U.S. market to Samsung, a company with a long tradition of innovative engineering and a budget big enough to market its Galaxy line of phones aggressively. The Galaxy S3 and S4 became the most coveted Android phones in the U.S. Meanwhile, in emerging markets, Samsung and Apple held a lock on the high end while companies like LG, Huawei, ZTE,and Xiaomi began to capture the growing demand for low-cost smartphones.

????Over the past two years, HTC's revenue and profit dwindled. On Oct. 4, the company pre-announced financial results that showed revenue would be down 14% from a year ago and that it would post a loss bigger than even bearish analysts were expecting.

????Even so, most analysts continued to express concern that competition in the smartphone market was too intense and that HTC had too many things to fix before it could declare a turnaround. The company may post a profit this quarter, but only because it's selling its stake in a U.S. headphone maker. Beyond that, analysts see further restructuring, if not a buyout or merger with a larger company. Wang has repeatedly ruled out such a move.

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