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eBay復興路上遭遇減速帶

eBay復興路上遭遇減速帶

Kevin Kelleher 2013-10-25
eBay股價漲勢放緩,大大落后于競爭對手和其他科技界同行。一方面是因為它前兩年的起點比較高,另外一方面則是因為電商行業(yè)發(fā)展放緩。與此同時,亞馬遜等老對手以及Square等新玩家導致移動支付行業(yè)競爭進一步升級,eBay的復興勢頭能否延續(xù)尚不可知。

????eBay公司(eBay)今年的光景不算太糟,但更準確地說是馬馬虎虎。經過多年的架構重組和產品線重構,這家電商企業(yè)似乎正駛入一片疲軟地帶.雖不至于讓它偏離復蘇的軌道,但也正對它產生諸多不利影響。

????2013年至今,eBay的股價上漲了2%。這個成績不算差,但卻遠遠落后于納斯達克同期30%的漲幅。它的死對頭亞馬遜公司(Amazon)股價也漲了30%,而其他大牌科技類企業(yè)股價漲幅更高:谷歌公司(Google)漲了40%,雅虎公司(Yahoo)漲了72%,F(xiàn)acebook更是漲了103%。

????在消費者網絡業(yè),到底是什么讓eBay的業(yè)績相對其大盤股的同行們躑躅不前?部分原因在于,它的業(yè)績2011年就大幅領先于這些同行。當時,公司首席執(zhí)行官約翰?多納霍多年來致力于扭轉公司業(yè)績的努力結出了碩果,推動公司股價上漲了68%,同時eBay也是首批向市場證明它能在移動網絡上掙到錢的科技公司之一。

????所以,eBay現(xiàn)在不再是十年前風靡一時的在線拍賣網站了,它更多算是一家四平八穩(wěn)、規(guī)模更大的公司,主要業(yè)務是搭建電商和支付平臺,為小型零售企業(yè)和越來越多像家得寶(Home Depot)和梅西百貨(Macy's)這樣的大企業(yè)提供支持。

????2011年,eBay的收入增長了27%,2012年增長了21%(達到了141億美元),但華爾街分析師預計它今年的增速將放慢至約14%。它的股價漲幅因此趨于停滯,因為投資者要看看公司的復蘇進程未來幾年是否能帶來更大的增長。

????上周,當eBay通報第三財季收益時,多納霍和首席財務官鮑勃?斯萬的一席話讓大家驚出了一身冷汗,“美國的電商行業(yè)嚴重走軟,我們對節(jié)日季的銷售前景持謹慎態(tài)度。”斯萬的這番話是為了解釋公司對第四財季收益每股80美分的指導意見,而這個數(shù)字要低于華爾街一致認為的每股83美分。

????斯萬在討論收益的電話會議中進一步解釋道:

????“最讓我們擔心的情況是,我們認為美國的電商行業(yè)增速正在急劇放緩,從康姆斯科公司(ComScore,互聯(lián)網流量統(tǒng)計公司——譯注)調研的第二季度15.5%到16%的增長率放緩到第三季度的接近13%……而十月份我們并未看到有任何積極跡象表明,美國電商行業(yè)接下來將比我們第三財季后期所經歷的情況會有所好轉。”

????這番言論導致eBay的股價應聲下挫,而多納霍在業(yè)績發(fā)布會上則提出了所謂“宏觀環(huán)境相對平淡”這一觀點,并在第二天表示,斯萬的這番話本意只是想表現(xiàn)得小心謹慎,而不是像它們所顯示的那么消極。多納霍稱在接受科技博客AllThingsD的專訪中:“我并不認為我們的看法與其他人有什么不同,只是我們率先說出來了而已?!?/p>

????這些對第四財季來說都不是什么鼓舞人心的消息——而這段時間對幾乎所有網上商戶來說都將是最忙碌的時間——但這并不意味著eBay的復蘇之路碰到了麻煩。但是,還出現(xiàn)了另外一些讓人擔憂的跡象——尤其是在移動電商領域,而這是決定它業(yè)績增長的關鍵所在。盡管eBay上一財季通過移動設備獲得了36%的新客戶,但這些客戶的花銷卻減少了。這是因為他們大多比較年輕,要么收入有限,要么是來自新興經濟體。

????It has not been a terrific year for eBay (EBAY), but more of a middling one. After years of restructuring the company and retooling its offerings, the e-commerce company seems to be hitting something of a soft patch that, while far from derailing its comeback, is taking a good amount of the wind out of it.

????eBay's stock is up 2% so far in 2013. Not bad in itself but lagging the Nasdaq's 30% gain in the same period. eBay rival Amazon (AMZN) is also up 30%, while other big-name tech companies have rallied even higher: Google (GOOG) up 40%, Yahoo (YHOO) up 72%, and Facebook (FB) up 103%.

????What's holding eBay back relative to its large-cap peers in the consumer web industry? Part of it is that the company outperformed those same peers in 2011, when it gained 68% as CEO John Donahoe's multi-year turnaround effort began to bear fruit and when eBay was one of the earliest tech companies to show it could make money on the mobile web.

????As a result, eBay is much less the auction-oriented site that was an online consumer fad a decade ago and is now a much more staid but larger company building an e-commerce and payments platform supporting legions of small retailers as well as a growing number of large ones like Home Depot (HD) and Macy's (M).

????eBay's revenue grew 27% in 2011 and 21% last year (to $14.1 billion), but Wall Street analysts expect that growth to slow some this year, to about 14%. That has put the stock's rally on pause as investors wait to see whether the turnaround can yield stronger growth in coming years.

????When eBay reported its third-quarter earnings last week, investors were a little spooked by some comments by Donahoe and CFO Bob Swan. "The U.S. e-commerce softened considerably, and we have a cautious outlook for the holiday season," Swan said, explaining the company's guidance for 80 cents a share in fourth-quarter earnings, which was below Wall Street's consensus figure of 83 cents a share.

????In the conference call to discuss earnings, Swan elaborated:

????"The thing that's caused us the most angst is what we believe is a dramatically decelerating U.S. e-commerce growth rate from the second quarter of 15.5% to 16% for comScore to the third quarter of closer to 13% ... We haven't really seen any more positive signs in October than what we experienced through the latter part of the third quarter in the U.S."

????Such comments set eBay's stock sinking until Donahoe, who himself referenced "a fairly lackluster macro environment" in the earnings call, said the next day that those comments were intended to be conservative and not as negative as they came across. ""I don't think we are seeing anything different than others are seeing; we just report first," Donahoe said in an interview with AllThingsD.

????That's not encouraging news for the fourth quarter -- by far the busiest for nearly all online retailers -- but it doesn't mean eBay's turnaround is in trouble. There are, however, other concerning signs -- especially in mobile commerce, a key area of the company's growth. While eBay acquired 36% of its new customers last quarter through mobile devices, they spent less because they are younger and with less disposable income or because they are living in emerging economies.

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